The 8th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

9.2
DEVELOPMENT OF AN AUTOMATIC SATELLITE VOLCANIC ERUPTION DETECTION SYSTEM, FOR EN-ROUTE AVIATION

R W. Lunnon, UK MET Office, Bracknell, Berks, UK; and I. J. McNair

A trial automatic system for detecting eruptions using satellite imagery data is under development. The algorithm will be tested on the historic record of eruptions and is intended to provide warning within an hour of ash reaching cruising levels. This timescale imposes a constraint that geostationary satellite imagery must be used. The system is being developed to be driven, initially at least, by data from METEOSAT, the European satellite located over zero degree longitude. This system will cover the whole of Africa, the western Caribbean (including Monseratt), the Azores, the Canaries, the Mediterranean and Iceland. The warnings from the system are intended to complement information coming from Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs) and in certain cases provide a trigger for the VAACs to instigate ash trajectory prediction models.

The paper will explain the rationale for the development of this system, the methodology which it is intended to use, the likely format of the warnings and the probable timescales for implementation.

Preliminary results will be presented in the context of the 1991 eruption of Mount Hekkla on Iceland

The 8th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology