The 10th Symposium on Global Change Studies

J3.8
NORMALIZED HURRICANE LOSSES IN CUBA AND THE CARIBBEAN- PRELIMINARY RESEARCH FINDINGS

Roger A. Pielke, Boulder, CO; and J. Rubiera and C. Landsea

Scientists, public and private decision makers, and the general public alike have expressed interest in understanding how both hurricane frequencies and intensities vary from year to year as well as how these variations are manifested in changes in economic losses. But understanding how past changes in climate have affected the hurricane loss record is made difficult because society constantly changes -- which has led to misinterpretations of the factors conditioning trends in losses. To best capture the year-to-year variability in tropical cyclone damage, it is necessary to "normalize" past losses to a common base. In this way, climate fluctuations can be identified in the societal impacts record. Recent research has normalized hurricane losses in the United States by adjusting for inflation, and changes in coastal population and wealth. This paper will report on the application of the normalization methodology to past hurricane losses in Cuba and the Caribbean and place the adjusted loss record into the broader context of hurricane climatology of Cuba and the Caribbean. The results of this research will have direct implications for policy decisions related to natural disasters and global climate change. It is an additional step toward better understanding global trends in the societal impacts of tropical cyclones

The 10th Symposium on Global Change Studies