Emergency managers, meteorologists, and planners attempting to assess the risks associated with Tropical Cyclones face many difficulties. A variety of approaches are presently used by the land planning and emergency management communities to assess the hazard and risk, some of which are conflicting and/or contradictory. Hazards associated with TC’s, such as wind, waves, storm surge, and rainfall, are presently modeled separately, often with different assumptions. Risk assessment requires a probabilistic approach. Some methodologies are amenable to a probabilistic approach, while others are not. Most historical approaches to hazard modeling cannot be run by a local user. The computational loads or centralized management of many methodologies do not allow them to be run for real-time guidance to meet the needs of specialized users. Most techniques currently in use cannot be easily used in conjunction with existing planning data by typical users at the local level.
An integrated, scalable, modular TC hazard model (the TAOS system) has been developed to address these difficulties. An object-oriented approach to model design enables the user to select the methods most appropriate to the problem, or the use of multiple methods to create an ensemble approach. The modular approach enables the rapid integration and testing of new or experimental techniques. Use of a graphical user interface hides the underlying complexity of storm hazard modeling from users with minimal numerical modeling background, while enabling the experienced user to interact with the model at a detailed level. Integrated tools for both real-time tracking, track forecasting, and modeling of impending threats are provided, as well as probabilistic tools for assessing the risk of both real time, seasonal, and overall historical risks. The integration of Geographic Information System (GIS) technology as both the input and output management basis for the model allows rapid update of input data bases, and the virtually instantaneous interaction of hazard data with existing planning data such as structure location, population, zoning, etc.
Verification data is presented for wind, wave, storm surge, and rainfall. Verification results for the model equals or exceeds results obtained by historical “single hazard” approaches. The model has been used operationally for projects in Central America, the Caribbean, and most recently for the Florida High Resolution Tropical Cyclone Hazard Mapping Project, which is discussed as a case study