The "Saxby Gale" of October 4-5, 1869 is a definitive storm in the Canadian Maritimes. The arrival of this system was "predicted" to within 3 hours by Lt. S.M. Saxby of the Royal Navy ... 10 months in advance! The storm was a hurricane that transformed into a deep extratropical depression that caused dozens of fatalities, set rainfall records in New England that still stand today, and was responsible for the world's largest known "tidal" excursion at the head of the Bay of Fundy, flooding the extensive salt marshes reclaimed by the Acadians more than a century previous.
Maximum water levels in the Bay of Fundy are achieved when large storm surges are coincident with perigean spring tides; but these circumstances are rare. The Saxby Tide was such an event, and this is perhaps the most noteworthy aspect of the Saxby Gale and the main reason why this historic storm is of relevance to us today.
In this study we decsribe the impact of this storm surge event, and use forensic data to estimate its height. Furthermore, we examine the flood risk threat in the Bay of Fundy through a brief overview of the tidal regime, coastal physiography and storm surge climatology of the region. We briefly examine the history of severe tropical and post tropical cyclones in the Bay of Fundy since 1885 and use this to develop a simple but valuable, tropical weather season, flood risk diagram for the head of the Bay of Fundy valid for the next 20 years.