The 10th Symposium on Global Change Studies

2B.3
PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF MJJ CARIBBEAN PRECIPITATION

A. Anthony Chen, Climate Research Group, Mona, Univ. of the West Indies, Kingston, Jamaica; and M. Taylor, S. Bryan, and L. Marx

Rainfall patterns in the Caribbean (59° to 89° W and 9° to 27° N) are investigated with particular emphasis on periods of flood and drought. The data set consisted of monthly average station data, which were gridded using an area average weighting. The use of the data set over ocean was validated by comparing with observed data. Analysis of the rainfall in May-June-July (MJJ), one of the two rainy seasons, reveals a significant component having periodicity similar to that of El Niņo. Statistical and graphical analyses confirm that the heaviest MJJ rainfall occurs in the year following an El Niņo event. Preliminary numerical experiments, using the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) general circulation model and forced sea surface temperature (SST) boundary conditions, confirm a connection between the Pacific and Caribbean SST anomalies and the MJJ precipitation. The various results indicate that these SST anomalies might be employed as predictors for Caribbean flood and drought conditions

The 10th Symposium on Global Change Studies