Session 14 15th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

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Sunday, 31 July 2011

5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 31 July 2011


Registration Opens
Location: Satellite Registration (Los Angeles Airport Marriott)

Monday, 1 August 2011

7:30 AM-6:00 PM: Monday, 1 August 2011


Registration continues throughout the conference
Location: Satellite Registration (Los Angeles Airport Marriott)

8:20 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 1 August 2011

Recording files available
Joint Session 1
Mesoscale processes in atmospheric turbulence
Location: Marquis Salon 456 (Los Angeles Airport Marriott)
Hosts: (Joint between the 14th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; and the 15th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology )
Chair: Robert G. Fovell, Univ. of California
8:20 AM
Introductory Remarks

8:30 AM
J1.1
(Invited talk) Recent advances in the detection and understanding of turbulence associated with thunderstorms
R. D. Sharman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. P. Lane, S. B. Trier, R. G. Fovell, and J. K. Williams
9:00 AM
J1.2
Turbulence in the upper-level outflow of idealized mesoscale convective systems
Dragana Zovko Rajak, Univ. of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and T. P. Lane
9:30 AM
J1.4
Resonant instability in mountain waves: Breaking at subcritical mountain heights
Craig C. Epifanio, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and K. C. Viner and J. D. Doyle
9:45 AM
J1.5
Overview of the Southern Andes - ANtarctic GRavity wave InitiAtive (SAANGRIA)
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and D. C. Fritts, R. B. Smith, and S. D. Eckermann

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 1 August 2011


Coffee Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 1 August 2011

Recording files available
Session 1
Turbulence and Wind Shear, Part 1
Location: Imperial Suite ABC (Los Angeles Airport Marriott)
Host: 15th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Cochairs: R. D. Sharman, NCAR; Warren Fellner, FAA
10:45 AM
1.2
A Numerical Study on Convectively Induced Turbulence (CIT) Encounter above a Dissipating Deep Convection
Jung-Hoon Kim, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and H. Y. Chun
11:00 AM
1.3
Meteorological conditions contributing the crash of a Boeing 737 at Denver International Airport
T. L. Keller, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. D. Hall, L. B. Cornman, and R. D. Sharman
11:15 AM
1.4
11:30 AM
1.5
Integration of Real-time In Situ Turbulence Reports into Airline Flight Operations
Tammy J. Farrar, Federal Aviation Administration, Washington, DC; and W. Watts, C. M. Amaral, G. Blackburn, C. A. West, and H. M. Eichenbaum

11:45 AM
1.6
Latest aviation applications of LIDAR at the Hong Kong International Airport
P. W. Chan, Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong, China
Manuscript (2.1 MB)

Handout (3.6 MB)

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 1 August 2011


Lunch Break
Location: Marquis Salon 1&2/Century Pavilion (Los Angeles Airport Marriott)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Monday, 1 August 2011

Recording files available
Session 2
Turbulence and Windshear, Part 2
Location: Imperial Suite ABC (Los Angeles Airport Marriott)
Host: 15th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Cochairs: Warren Fellner, FAA; R. D. Sharman, NCAR
1:30 PM
2.1
Measuring in-cloud turbulence: the NEXRAD Turbulence Detection Algorithm
John K. Williams, NCAR, Boulder, Colorado; and G. Meymaris, J. A. Craig, G. Blackburn, W. Deierling, and F. McDonough

Handout (1.9 MB)

2:00 PM
2.3
The relationship of in-cloud convective turbulence to total lightning
Wiebke Deierling, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Williams, C. Kessinger, R. D. Sharman, and M. Steiner
2:15 PM
2.4
A case study of missed approach of aircraft due to tailwind associated with thunderstorms
P. W. Chan, Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong, China; and S. M. Tse

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 1 August 2011


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Poster Session
Posters for Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, Part 1
Location: Marquis Salon 3 (Los Angeles Airport Marriott)
Host: 15th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
42
Impact of buildings on the low level airflow at the airport – example of hangars
P. W. Chan, Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong, China; and L. Li

43
Surface level wind gusts and turbulence in the Alcantara Launch Center - Brazil
Edson Marciotto, Institute of Aeronautics and Space, São José dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil; and G. Fisch
Manuscript (1.1 MB)

Handout (1.9 MB)

45
Weather support to aviation's Golden Triangle
Cecilia Miner, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and C. A. West and B. A. Smith

46
Evaluation of Upper-Level Turbulence Diagnostics Performance Using the Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) System and Pilot Reports (PIREPs) over East Asia
Jung-Hoon Kim, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and H. Y. Chun, R. D. Sharman, and T. L. Keller

47
Evaluation of a modified clear air turbulence (CAT) forecast index based on deformation, vertical shear, and divergence tendency
Gary P. Ellrod, Ellrod Weather Consulting, LLC, Granby, CT; and J. Knox, S. Silberberg, and E. N. Wilson

48
The meteorological part in the european project DELICAT - DEmonstration of LIdar based Clear Air Turbulence
Christine Le Bot, Météo France, Toulouse, France; and J. Kopek and A. Crespin
Manuscript (2.3 MB)

Handout (1021.8 kB)

4:00 PM-5:15 PM: Monday, 1 August 2011

Recording files available
Session 3
Turbulence and Wind Shear, Part 3
Location: Imperial Suite ABC (Los Angeles Airport Marriott)
Host: 15th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Cochairs: Warren Fellner, FAA; R. D. Sharman, NCAR
4:00 PM
3.1
Development of JMA's new turbulence index
Atsushi Kudo, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan
4:15 PM
3.2
Performance of the Ellrod-Knox and Lighthill-Ford-Knox clear air turbulence algorithms at the Aviation Weather Center
John A. Knox, University Of Georgia, Athens, GA; and G. P. Ellrod, S. Silberberg, and E. Wilson
4:45 PM
3.4
5:00 PM
3.5

Tuesday, 2 August 2011

8:45 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 2 August 2011

Recording files available
Session 4
Nowcasting and Modeling, Part 1
Location: Imperial Suite ABC (Los Angeles Airport Marriott)
Host: 15th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Cochairs: John R. Mecikalski, University of Alabama in Huntsville; William W. Vaughan, University of Alabama
8:45 AM
4.1
Validation of a convective storm detection algorithm using a satellite-based object tracking methodology
Daniel C. Hartung, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. Sieglaff, L. M. Cronce, and W. F. Feltz
9:15 AM
4.3
Improved convective initiation forecasting in the Gulf of Mexico region through enhanced uses of NASA satellite assets and artificial intelligence
John R. Mecikalski, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and J. K. Williams, P. Tissot, W. G. Collins, D. A. Ahijevych, C. P. Jewett, and N. Bledsoe
9:30 AM
4.4
Gridded Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) guidance for aviation forecasting
Judy E. Ghirardelli, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and B. Glahn
9:45 AM
4.5
Update on CoSPA Storm Forecasts
Haig Iskenderian, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and J. Pinto, M. Wolfson, S. G. Benjamin, M. Steiner, S. S. Weygandt, C. Alexander, W. J. Dupree, J. K. Williams, J. R. Mecikalski, W. F. Feltz, K. Bedka, D. Morse, X. Tao, D. A. Ahijevych, C. Reiche, T. Langlois, K. L. Haas, L. J. Bickmeier, P. M. Lamey, J. M. Pelagatti, and D. D. Moradi

10:00 AM-10:45 AM: Tuesday, 2 August 2011


Coffee Break

10:45 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 2 August 2011

Recording files available
Session 5
Nowcasting and Modeling, Part 2
Location: Imperial Suite ABC (Los Angeles Airport Marriott)
Host: 15th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Cochairs: William W. Vaughan, University of Alabama; S. Weygandt, NOAA/ESRL/GSD
10:45 AM
5.1
An operational implementation of GTG-based turbulence forecasting
Todd A. Hutchinson, WSI Corporation, Andover, MA; and C. Meyer
11:00 AM
5.2
Evaluation of cold-season precipitation forecasts generated by the hourly updated 3-km High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR)
Kyoko Ikeda, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Steiner, R. M. Rasmussen, J. O. Pinto, and C. Alexander
11:30 AM
5.4
Evaluation of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) implementation version of the Rapid Refresh and its skill in providing short-term guidance for aviation hazards
Stephen S. Weygandt, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and M. Hu, T. G. Smirnova, C. R. Alexander, S. G. Benjamin, G. S. Manikin, J. M. Brown, H. Lin, J. B. Olson, and P. Hofmann
11:45 AM
5.5
Improvement and testing of WRF physics options for application to Rapid Refresh and High Resolution Rapid Refresh
John M. Brown, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and T. G. Smirnova, J. B. Olson, G. A. Grell, D. C. Dowell, S. Benjamin, C. R. Alexander, E. P. James, S. S. Weygandt, M. Hu, P. Hofmann, and H. Lin

12:00 PM-2:30 PM: Tuesday, 2 August 2011


Lunch Break
Location: Marquis Salon 1&2/Century Pavilion (Los Angeles Airport Marriott)

2:30 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 2 August 2011

Recording files available
Session 6
General Topics in Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, Part 1
Location: Imperial Suite ABC (Los Angeles Airport Marriott)
Host: 15th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Cochairs: Katherine A. Winters, 45th Weather Squadron; Cecilia Miner, NOAA/NWS
2:30 PM
6.1
Aviation Weather Research Management Planning
Thomas MacPhail, FAA, Washington, DC; and S. Abelman
2:45 PM
6.2
"The FAA's Aviation Weather Research Program: Successes, Status, & Future Direction"
Steve Abelman, Federal Aviation Administration, Washington, DC; and W. Fellner

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 2 August 2011


Coffee Break

4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Tuesday, 2 August 2011

Recording files available
Session 7
General Topics in Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, Part 2
Location: Imperial Suite ABC (Los Angeles Airport Marriott)
Host: 15th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Cochairs: Katherine A. Winters, 45th Weather Squadron; Cecilia Miner, NOAA/NWS
4:00 PM
7.1
Automated jet streams on significant weather high level charts at WAFC Washington
JoAnn Becker, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Kansas City, MO; and D. Bright, R. Douglass, L. Hinson, W. Hirt, S. Silberberg, and M. Strahan
4:15 PM
7.2
Advancements in GOES-R imager aviation weather decision support research
Wayne F. Feltz, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and K. Bedka, J. R. Mecikalski, M. J. Pavolonis, B. Pierce, K. L. Pryor, W. L. Smith Jr., and A. Wimmers
4:30 PM
7.3
Radar-data assimilation into the Rapid Refresh (RR) and High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) models toward improved convective guidance for aviation
David C. Dowell, NOAA ESRL GSD, Boulder, CO; and C. R. Alexander, M. Hu, S. S. Weygandt, S. G. Benjamin, T. G. Smirnova, E. P. James, P. Hofmann, H. Lin, and J. M. Brown
4:45 PM
7.4
Assessing the effectiveness of an education and training module for general aviation pilots on the use of NEXRAD-based products in the cockpit
Erin A. Roberts, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, FL; and J. M. Lanicci and E. Blickensderfer

Wednesday, 3 August 2011

7:00 AM-9:00 AM: Wednesday, 3 August 2011


Committee Meeting
Location: Philadelphia (Los Angeles Airport Marriott)

9:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 3 August 2011

Recording files available
Session 8
Probabilistic Forecasting for ARAM
Location: Imperial Suite ABC (Los Angeles Airport Marriott)
Host: 15th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Chair: John R. Mecikalski, University of Alabama in Huntsville
9:00 AM
8.1
The use of statistical relationships to produce probabilistic nowcasts of storms
John K. Williams, NCAR, Boulder, Colorado; and D. A. Ahijevych, C. P. Kalb, C. L. Phillips, J. O. Pinto, and M. Steiner

9:15 AM
8.2
Probabilistic thunderstorm guidance from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model: evaluation and evolution of a prototype system
Eric P. James, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and C. Alexander, S. Weygandt, S. Benjamin, and P. Hofmann
9:45 AM
8.4
Introduction to NCEP's time lagged north american rapid refresh ensemble forecast system (NARRE-TL)
Binbin Zhou, IMSG at EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Du, G. Manikin, and G. DiMego

10:00 AM-10:45 AM: Wednesday, 3 August 2011


Coffee Break

10:45 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 3 August 2011

Recording files available
Session 9
Range, Aerospace, and Environmental Meteorology
Location: Imperial Suite ABC (Los Angeles Airport Marriott)
Host: 15th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Cochairs: Edward H. Teets Jr., NASA; Katherine A. Winters, 45th Weather Squadron
10:45 AM
9.1
The Impact of Triboelectrification on the Ares I-X Launch and Considerations for Other Launch Vehicles
Katherine A. Winters, 45th Weather Squadron, Patrick AFB, FL; and B. C. Roberts, M. Mcgrath, and M. D. McClelland
11:00 AM
9.2
The NCAR Short-term Lightning Alert System
Wiebke Deierling, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Kessinger, D. L. Megenhardt, and M. Steiner
11:15 AM
9.3
Can turbulence information improve contrail susceptibility forecasts?
John K. Williams, NCAR, Boulder, Colorado; and R. D. Sharman, D. P. Duda, D. B. Johnson, and P. Minnis
11:30 AM
9.4
A MODIS-based contrail climatology of coverage and cloud properties
David P. Duda, SSAI, Hampton, VA; and K. Khlopenkov, S. T. Bedka, T. L. Chee, and P. Minnis

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 3 August 2011


Lunch Break
Location: Marquis Salon 1&2/Century Pavilion (Los Angeles Airport Marriott)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 3 August 2011

Recording files available
Session 10
The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen), Part 1
Location: Imperial Suite ABC (Los Angeles Airport Marriott)
Host: 15th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Cochairs: Cynthia Abelman, NOAA/NWS; David J. Pace, FAA-Retired
1:30 PM
10.1
Enhancing digital services for aviation
Cammye Sims, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and B. A. Smith and M. P. Murphy
1:45 PM
10.2
TAFs in the NextGen Era
James Harry Hartman III, FAA, Washington, DC; and C. Sims and S. Walden
2:00 PM
10.3
A Performance Assessment of the National Ceiling and Visibility Analysis Product
Andrew Loughe, NOAA/ESRL/GSD/CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and B. Pettegrew, J. K. Henderson, J. E. Hart, S. Madine, and J. L. Mahoney
2:15 PM
10.4
Metrics for Evaluating the Impact of Weather on Jet Routes
Jimmy Krozel, The Innovation Laboratory, Inc., Portland, OR; and M. Ganji, S. Yang, J. S. B. Mitchell, and V. Polishchuk

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 3 August 2011


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Poster Session
Posters for Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, Part 2
Location: Marquis Salon 3 (Los Angeles Airport Marriott)
Host: 15th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
49
“Hour-by-Month” Climograms as an Aviation Weather visual planning and decison-aid tool
Charles J. Fisk, Naval Base Ventura County, Point Mugu, CA

50
Field study of the performance of ceilometers
P. W. Chan, Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong, China
Manuscript (530.4 kB)

51
Field study of the performance of visibility sensors
P. W. Chan, Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong, China
Manuscript (519.5 kB)

52
Global satellite images for aviation operations
Frederick R. Mosher, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, FL; and J. H. Block
Manuscript (1.1 MB)

53
Understanding of the formation mechanism of sea fog through numerical simulation using a Single Column Model coupled with WRF
Chang Ki Kim, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. S. Yum
Manuscript (544.4 kB)

54
Validation and forecast exercises using the SATCAST 0-1 hour convective initiation nowcasting algorithm at UAHuntsville
John Walker, Univ. of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and J. R. Mecikalski and C. P. Jewett

55
Development of Satellite-based Significant Convection Nowcasting Product in Support of Air Traffic Flow Management in Hong Kong
Ping Cheung, Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong, China; and C. C. Lam and T. K. H. Ng
Manuscript (1.2 MB)

56
57
National Weather Service Central Region service enhancements
Cecilia Miner, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and B. P. Walawender and J. A. Zeltwanger

4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Wednesday, 3 August 2011

Recording files available
Session 11
The Next Generation Air Transportation System, Part 2
Location: Imperial Suite ABC (Los Angeles Airport Marriott)
Host: 15th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Cochairs: David J. Pace, FAA-Retired; Cynthia Abelman, NOAA/NWS
4:15 PM
11.3
Determining FAA Mid-Term Aviation Weather Requirements for Traffic Flow Management - the Transition to NextGen
Cheryl G. Souders, FAA, Washington, DC; and F. Bayne, S. Stepney, R. C. Showalter, J. May, J. Tauss, and L. Leonard
4:30 PM
11.2
Classification of Weather Translation Models for NextGen
Jimmy Krozel, The Innovation Laboratory, Inc., Portland, OR; and R. Kicinger and M. Andrews
4:45 PM
11.1

Thursday, 4 August 2011

9:00 AM-10:00 AM: Thursday, 4 August 2011

Recording files available
Session 12
In-flight Icing
Location: Imperial Suite ABC (Los Angeles Airport Marriott)
Host: 15th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Cochairs: Marcia K. Politovich, NCAR; David J. Pace, FAA-Retired
9:00 AM
12.1
Evaluation of ensemble icing probability forecasts in the NCEP SREF and VSREF systems
Binbin Zhou, IMSG at EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD; and G. DiMego and R. Sallee
9:15 AM
12.2
9:30 AM
12.3
The FAA's In-flight Icing Research Program: Status and Future
Imani Jeffries, Federal Aviation Administration, Washington, DC; and S. Walden

10:00 AM-10:45 AM: Thursday, 4 August 2011


Coffee Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 4 August 2011

Recording files available
Session 13
Convection, Decision Support Systems and Air Traffic Management, Part 1
Location: Imperial Suite ABC (Los Angeles Airport Marriott)
Host: 15th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Cochairs: Steve Abelman, Federal Aviation Administration; James G. Stobie, ENSCO, Inc.
10:30 AM
13.1
An Object-Based Approach for Identifying and Evaluating Convective Initiation
Steven A. Lack, NOAA/ESRL/GSD/CIRES Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and M. S. Wandishin and J. L. Mahoney
10:45 AM
13.2
Evolution of the high resolution rapid refresh (HRRR) model and its role in convective weather guidance for air-traffic management
Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and S. S. Weygandt, S. G. Benjamin, T. G. Smirnova, E. P. James, P. Hofmann, D. C. Dowell, M. Hu, J. M. Brown, and J. B. Olson
11:15 AM
13.4
11:30 AM
13.5
11:45 AM
13.6
Enhancements in convective weather forecasting for NAS Traffic Flow Management (TFM)
Jennifer A. Colavito, Federal Aviation Administration, Washington, DC; and S. McGettigan, M. Robinson, J. L. Mahoney, and M. Phaneuf

12:00 PM-2:30 PM: Thursday, 4 August 2011


Lunch Break
Location: Marquis Salon 1&2/Century Pavilion (Los Angeles Airport Marriott)

2:30 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 4 August 2011

Recording files available
Session 14
Convection, Decision Support Systems and Air Traffic Management, Part 2
Location: Imperial Suite ABC (Los Angeles Airport Marriott)
Host: 15th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Cochairs: James G. Stobie, ENSCO, Inc.; Steve Abelman, Federal Aviation Administration
2:30 PM
14.1
Quality Assessment Techniques for Evaluating Convective Weather Products used for Air Traffic Management Strategic Planning
Steven A. Lack, NOAA/ESRL/GSD/CIRES Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and G. J. Layne, S. Madine, M. A. Petty, and J. L. Mahoney
2:45 PM
14.2
Weather impacts and routing services in support of airspace management operations
David I. Knapp, Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, NM; and J. Johnson and D. Sauter
3:00 PM
14.3
Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) Weather Evaluation Team (WET) convective weather forecast process in support of traffic flow management
Tom Lloyd, JetBlue Airways Corp., Long Island City, NY; and K. L. Johnston, T. H. Fahey III, M. Fronzak, T. Harder, J. Huhn, L. Larkin, D. Meyer, M. P. Murphy, and J. Sarver
3:15 PM
14.4
Traffic Flow Management Weather Requirements Working Group (TRWG)
Julie L. Adolphson, NOAA/NWS/WFO, Pleasant Hill, MO; and C. Abelman and K. L. Johnston