| Sunday, 17 January 2010 |
| 7:30 AM-9:00 AM, Sunday
Short Course Registration |
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| 9:00 AM-6:00 PM, Sunday
Annual Meeting Registration Begins |
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| 12:00 PM-4:00 PM, Sunday
Weatherfest |
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| 3:00 PM-4:00 PM, Sunday, B314
First-Time Attendee Briefing |
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| 5:00 PM-6:00 PM, Sunday, B314
Annual Meeting Review and Fellows Awards |
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| 6:00 PM-7:00 PM, Sunday, Exhibit Hall B2
Fellows Reception |
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| Monday, 18 January 2010 |
| 7:30 AM-5:30 PM, Monday
Registration Open |
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| 9:00 AM-10:30 AM, Monday, Thomas Murphy Ballroom 1 and 2
Presidential Forum |
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| 10:30 AM-11:00 AM, Monday
Coffee Break in Meeting Room Foyer |
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| 11:00 AM-12:00 PM, Monday, B216
Joint Session 1 Mitigation and adaptation to climate change (Joint between the 12th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry, the 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the 24th Conference on Hydrology, the 22nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change, the First Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy, the Committee on Climate Services, the Fifth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research, and the First Environment and Health Symposium) |
Chair: David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC
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| 11:00 AM | J1.1 | Regional climate modeling and decision aids
Glenn Higgins, Northrop Grumann TASC, Chantilly, VA; and D. Apling, R. Alliss, and H. Kiley |
| 11:15 AM | J1.2 | Bounded rationality in climate change policy development
Amanda H. Lynch, Monash University, Clayton, Vic., Australia; and R. D. Brunner |
| 11:30 AM | J1.3 | Seeing the world through a political lens: the connection between weather and climate change perceptions and beliefs
Hank Jenkins-Smith, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. H. Goebbert, K. E. Klockow, M. Nowlin, and C. Silva |
| 11:45 AM | J1.4 | Advancing Climate Adaptation in Wildlife Conservation
Amanda Staudt, National Wildlife Federation, Reston, VA; and D. Inkley, P. Glick, B. Stein, N. Edelson, and J. Kostyack |
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| 12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Monday
Lunch Break |
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| 1:30 PM-2:30 PM, Monday, B305
Session 1 Statistical analysis in the geophysical sciences I |
Cochairs: Andrew W. Robertson, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; Cécile Penland, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO
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| 1:30 PM | 1.1 | Classic Granger causality may not be appropriate for diagnosing CO2-temperature and other noisy relationships
Evan Anton Kodra, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and S. Chatterjee and A. R. Ganguly |
| 1:45 PM | 1.2 | Method to Improve Offshore Wind Energy Resource Assessments Using Cokriging
Michael J. Dvorak, Stanford University, Stanford, CA; and A. Boucher and M. Z. Jacobson |
| 2:00 PM | 1.3 | Varying-coefficient space-time models for short-term wind forecasting
Amanda S. Hering, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO; and M. G. Genton and P. Pinson |
| 2:15 PM | 1.4 | Review of 20 ProbStat Conference, Poster Session I
Cécile Penland, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO |
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| 2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Monday
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break |
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| 2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Monday
Poster Session 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics Poster Session I |
Chair: Cécile Penland, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO
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| | 218 | The equatorial QBO influence on the northern winter extratropical circulation
Hiroaki Naoe, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and K. Shibata |
| | 219 | Real-time objective analysis of surface data at the Meteorological Development Laboratory
Jung-Sun Im, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and B. Glahn and J. E. Ghirardelli |
| | 220 | Comparing NWS POP Forecasts to Third-Party Providers
Eric Bickel, The University of Texas, Austin, TX; and E. Floehr |
| | 221 | Estimating the error of the BCDG analysis of surface data
Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. S. Im |
| | 222 | Logit transforms in forecasting precipitation type
Phillip E. Shafer, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD |
| | 223 | Predictability of Seasonal Precipitation Using Joint Probabilities
M. Tugrul Yilmaz, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and T. DelSole |
| | 224 | Crop Yield Forecast Models that Maximize Explanatory Power of Climate Based Inputs from Satellite Observations
Alan Basist, Climate Predict Consulting, Raleigh, North Carolina; and J. Sivillo, S. Shen, and C. Lee |
| | 225 | Stochastic Models of Severe Weather Watches and Warnings
Christopher Myers, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and R. Krzysztofowicz |
| | 226 | Inter- and Intra- Seasonal Variability of Summer Thunderstorms determined by the ANOVA
Paul J. Croft, Kean Univ., Union, NJ; and W. Woubneh and C. Rosa |
| | 227 | Orographic Signature on Multiscale Statistics of Extreme Rainfall
Mohammad Ebtehaj II, University of Minnesota, Saint Anthony Falls Laboratory, National Center for Earth Surface Dynamics, Minneapolis, MN; and E. foufoula-Georgiou |
| | 228 | Efficient kriging for real-time spatio-temporal interpolation 
Balaji Vasan Srinivasan, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and R. Duraiswami and R. Murtugudde |
| | 229 | Toward regional climate-change downscaling of weather statistics using a hidden Markov model
Andrew W. Robertson, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and A. M. Greene, P. Smyth, and S. Triglia |
| | 230 | Inclusion of New Variables in Bias Correction and Downscaling for NAEFS
Bo Cui, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu and Z. Toth |
| | 231 | Urban heat island effects on human heat-stress values during the July 2006 Portland, Oregon heat wave
R. Bornstein, San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA; and A. Melford |
| | 232 | Statistical modeling of daily stream temperature for mitigating fish mortality
R. Jason Caldwell, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and B. Rajagopalan |
| | 233 | Extreme value analysis of precipitation series in the south of Iberian Peninsula
Jose Manuel Hidalgo-Muñoz, Universidad de Granada, Granada, Granada, Spain; and D. Argüeso, D. Calandria-Hernandez, S. R. Gamiz-Fortis, M. J. Esteban-Parra, and Y. Castro-Diez |
| | 234 | Verification of maximum and minimum temperature forecasts from various agencies for Duluth, MN
Joshua Cossuth, Florida State University / COAPS, Tallahassee, FL |
| | 235 | Probabilistic freeze forecasting in the Midwest and Florida
Eric R. Wenke, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC |
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| 4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Monday, B312
Joint Session 2 The emergence of new scientific partnerships (Joint between the Fifth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research, the 14th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, the 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the 24th Conference on Hydrology, the 18th Conference on Applied Climatology, the First Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy, and the First Environment and Health Symposium) |
Chair: Genevieve E. Maricle, Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ
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| 4:00 PM | J2.1 | Climate Adaptation Partnerships in Semiarid North America
Gregg M. Garfin, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ |
| 4:15 PM | J2.2 | The FEMA Hurricane Liaison Team: Bridging the Communication Gap (because Great Minds Don't Always Think Alike)
Matthew Green, FEMA, TBA, GA |
| 4:30 PM | J2.3 | Partnership between the Državni hidrometeorološki zavod (DHMZ) and the University of Oklahoma (OU)
Ivan Cacic, Državni hidrometeorološki zavod, Zagreb, Croatia; and B. Ivančan-Picek, B. Lipovšćak, K. Pandzic, B. Terek, V. Tutiš, G. Zuccon, K. Crawford, R. A. McPherson, K. L. Nemunaitis, and J. T. Snow |
| 4:45 PM | J2.4 | The Norman, Oklahoma Chamber of Commerce Weather Committee: A Framework for New Partnerships Among Industry, Government and Academia
Kelvin K. Droegemeier, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and W. L. Qualley, V. Rose, and A. M. Suggs |
| 5:00 PM | J2.5 | The Weather And Society *Integrated Studies (WAS*IS) Program: yesterday, today, and tomorrow
G. Thomas Behler Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. Gruntfest, J. Demuth, J. K. Lazo, and E. Laidlaw |
| 5:15 PM | J2.6 | User engagement activities at NOAA's national climatic data center
Tamara G. Houston, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC |
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| 4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Monday, B305
Session 2 Statistical analysis in the geophysical sciences II |
Cochairs: Marina Timofeyeva, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD
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| 4:00 PM | 2.1 | Typical Day Meteorological Data in Support of ATD Modeling
George D. Modica, AER, Lexington, MA; and S. Lowe, T. Nehrkorn, J. Wensell, J. Baldwin, G. McMullin, and R. Hoffman |
| 4:15 PM | 2.2 | Statistical analysis of sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic Ocean
Constantin Andronache, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA |
| 4:30 PM | 2.3 | Statistical Structure of the Global Significant Wave Heights
Peter C. Chu, NPS, Monterey, CA; and Y. H. Kuo and G. Galanis |
| 4:45 PM | 2.4 | Determining radiative heating profiles from satellite data using statistical classification and cluster analysis
Nathaniel Beagley, PNNL, Richland, WA; and S. A. McFarlane, J. H. Mather, and J. E. Flaherty |
| 5:00 PM | 2.5 | Statistical downscaling daily rainfall statistics from seasonal forecasts using canonical correlation analysis or a hidden Markov model?
Andrew W. Robertson, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and K. Verbist |
| 5:15 PM | 2.6 | GiST, A model for generating spatial-temporal daily rainfall data
Guillermo A. Baigorria, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and J. W. Jones |
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| 5:30 PM-7:30 PM, Monday
Opening of the Exhibit Hall with Reception |
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| Tuesday, 19 January 2010 |
| 8:30 AM-9:45 AM, Tuesday, 313b
Joint Session 3 Data Collection, Interpretation, Assimilation, and Stewardship (Joint between the 14th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS), the First Symposium on Planetary Atmospheres, the 14th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, the 12th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry, the 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the 24th Conference on Hydrology, and the 18th Conference on Applied Climatology) |
Chair: Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO
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| 8:30 AM | J3.1 | The Impacts on Air Traffic of Volcanic Ash from the 2009 Mt. Redoubt Eruption
Alexander Matus, NASA, Hampton, VA; and L. A. Hudnall, J. J. Murray, and A. Krueger |
| 8:45 AM | J3.2 | UrbanNet: Urban Environment Monitoring and Modeling with a Wireless Sensor Network
Paul J. Croft, Kean Univ., Union, NJ; and P. Morreale, F. Qi, A. Tropek, and M. Andujar |
| 9:00 AM | J3.3 | Network of Weather and Climate Observing Networks (NOWCON)
Samuel P. Williamson, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, Silver Spring, MD; and J. E. Stailey and S. J. Taijeron |
| 9:15 AM | J3.4 | Comparison of COOP and new HCN-M temperature products
John R. Christy, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL |
| 9:30 AM | J3.5 | The Impact of Temporally Varying Snowfall Rates on Holdover Time using the LWE and Check Time Systems
Roy Rasmussen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Landolt, J. Black, and A. Gaydos |
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| 9:45 AM-11:00 AM, Tuesday
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break |
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| 11:00 AM-6:00 PM, Tuesday
Exhibits Open |
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| 11:00 AM-12:00 PM, Tuesday, B305
Session 3 Extreme events in weather, water and climate |
Cochairs: Robert D. Bornstein, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA; David Bright, BPA, Portland, OR
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| 11:00 AM | 3.1 | Statistical modeling of hot spells and heat waves
Richard W. Katz, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. M. Furrer and M. D. Walter |
| 11:15 AM | 3.2 | Cooling of maximum temperatures in coastal California air basins during 1969–2005: monthly and extreme value trends
A. Charland, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA; and B. Lebassi, J. Gonzalez, and R. Bornstein |
| 11:30 AM | 3.3 | A climatology of heavy midlatitude rainfall across the United States from 1949–2000
Elaine S. Godfrey, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. Crawford and M. Richman |
| 11:45 AM | 3.4 | A novel financial market structure for mitigating hurricane risk
Daniel S. Wilks, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY |
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| 12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Tuesday, B208
Kuettner Symposium Luncheon |
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| 12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Tuesday
Lunch Break (Cash and Carry in Exhibit Hall) |
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| 1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Tuesday, B305
Session 4 Meteorological, climatological, and hydrological predictions and projections |
Cochairs: Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO; Daniel S. Wilks, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY
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| 1:30 PM | 4.1 | Kalman filtered analogs to improve Numerical Weather Predictions
Thomas Nipen, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and L. Delle Monache, J. P. Hacker, Y. Liu, R. B. Stull, and T. Warner |
| 1:45 PM | 4.2 | Temperature forecast opportunities across the NWS Southern Region
Bernard N. Meisner, NOAA/NWS Southern Region Headquarters, Fort Worth, TX; and N. S. Flecha |
| 2:00 PM | 4.3 | Introduction on MOS Approaches for KMA Digital Forecast
JunTae Choi, Korean Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea; and Y. Seo and M. S. Lee |
| 2:15 PM | 4.4 | Short-term wind power ramp forecasting using statistical and machine-learning techniques and off-site observations
Scott D. Otterson, 3TIER, Inc., Seattle, WA; and E. P. Grimit and A. W. Wood |
| 2:30 PM | 4.5 | Improved short-term hurricane intensity forecasting using regression on core measurements
D. Andrew Murray, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. Hart |
| 2:45 PM | 4.6 | Time Series for Decadal Means of Temperature and Precipitation Under Global Warming in the Context of Observed Trends
Ian G. Watterson, CSIRO, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia; and P. H. Whetton |
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| 3:00 PM-3:30 PM, Tuesday
Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall |
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| 3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Tuesday, B216
Joint Session 4 Research on extreme weather and climate events and inter-relationships (Joint between the 22nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change, the First Symposium on Planetary Atmospheres, the First Environment and Health Symposium, the 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the 24th Conference on Hydrology, the 18th Conference on Applied Climatology, the First Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy, and the Committee on Climate Services) |
Chair: David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC
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| 3:30 PM | J4.1 | The relative increase of record high maximum temperatures compared to record low minimum temperatures in the U.S
Gerald Meehl, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Tebaldi, G. Walton, D. R. Easterling, and L. R. McDaniel |
| 3:45 PM | J4.2 | A common Midwestern question: Where have all our 90°F days gone?
David Changnon, Northern Illinois Univ., DeKalb, IL; and V. Gensini and J. Prell |
| 4:00 PM | J4.3 | Using large scale circulation indices to predict the intensity of cold air outbreaks over extended time scales across the southeastern U.S
Charles E. Konrad, NOAA Southeastern Regional Climate Center, Chapel Hill, NC |
| 4:15 PM | J4.4 | Heat waves and cold spells in a warming climate
Karsten Steinhaeuser, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and A. R. Ganguly |
| 4:30 PM | J4.5 | Climatological, meteorological, and societal implications for the large number of fatalities from central Florida Dry Season tornadoes during El Niño
Bartlett C. Hagemeyer, NOAA/NWS, Melbourne, FL; and L. A. Jordan, A. L. Moses, S. M. Spratt, and D. F. Van Dyke |
| 4:45 PM | J4.6 | Extreme european weather regimes
Ricardo Morais Fonseca, University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom; and B. J. Hoskins and M. Blackburn |
| 5:00 PM | J4.7 | Meteorological features of observed trends in U.S. heavy precipitation events
Kenneth E. Kunkel, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. R. Easterling, B. E. Gleason, D. A. R. Kristovich, R. A. Smith, and L. Ensor |
| 5:15 PM | J4.8 | Contemporary climatic changes in North America and Northern Eurasia with foci on extreme events and transitions through environmentally and socio-economically significant thresholds
Pavel Ya. Groisman, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and R. W. Knight and T. R. Karl |
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| Wednesday, 20 January 2010 |
| 8:30 AM-10:00 AM, Wednesday, B215
Joint Session 5 Advances in Modeling, From Local through Regional to Large Scale, and From Deterministic to Ensemble-Probabilistic Prediction Part I (Joint between the 22nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change, the 14th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS), the First Symposium on Planetary Atmospheres, the 14th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, the 12th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry, the 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, and the 24th Conference on Hydrology) |
Chair: Ed Olenic, NCEP, Camp Springs, MD
|
| 8:30 AM | J5.1 | On the seamless prediction of weather and climate
Timothy N. Palmer, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom |
| 8:45 AM | J5.2 | Performance of the NOAA FIM global ensemble prediction system for hurricanes during the 2009 season
Tom Hamill, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker and S. Benjamin |
| 9:00 AM | J5.3 | Why does cloud superparameterization improve the simulated daily rainfall cycle in a multiscale climate modeling framework?
Michael S. Pritchard, SIO/Univ. Of California, La Jolla, CA; and R. C. J. Somerville |
| 9:15 AM | J5.4 | North Pacific decadal variability and climate change in the IPCC AR4 models
Jason C. Furtado, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and E. Di Lorenzo |
| 9:30 AM | J5.5 | Aquaplanet GCM simulations of tropical intraseasonal variability
Eric D. Maloney, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and W. Hannah |
| 9:45 AM | J5.6 | Factors affecting forecast skill of the MJO over the Maritime Continent
Augustin Vintzileos, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC - SAIC, Camp Springs, MD |
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| 10:00 AM-10:30 AM, Wednesday
Coffee Break in Meeting Room Foyer |
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| 10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Wednesday, B215
Joint Session 6 Advances in Modeling, From Local through Regional to Large Scale, and From Deterministic to Ensemble-Probabilistic Prediction Part II (Joint between the 22nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change, the 14th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS), the First Symposium on Planetary Atmospheres, the 14th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, the 12th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry, the 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, and the 24th Conference on Hydrology) |
Chair: Ed Olenic, NCEP, Camp Springs, MD
|
| 10:30 AM | J6.1 | Quantifying Contributions to Polar Warming Amplification in a Coupled General Circulation Model
Ming Cai, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and J. Lu |
| 10:45 AM | J6.2 | The development of a coupled hurricane storm surge forecasting Model for the Pascagoula River
David A. Ramirez Jr., NOAA/NWS, Slidell, LA |
| 11:00 AM | J6.3 | Evaluation of the new Australian climate model ACCESS
Ian G. Watterson, CAWCR, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia; and L. Rikus, B. Hu, and T. Elliott |
| 11:15 AM | J6.4 | Mesoscale circulations in the urban-coastal environment: a modeling analysis and assessment of sensitivity to high-fidelity representation of the urban canopy
Michael Carter, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS; and J. M. Shepherd, S. Burian, and I. Jeyachandran |
| 11:30 AM | J6.5 | Ensemble downscaling of seasonal forecasts
R. W. Arritt, Iowa State University, Ames, IA |
| 11:45 AM | J6.6 | The misrepresentation of Tropical SSTs in climate models
Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, Univ. of Colorado/CIRES/CDC and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO; and S. I. Shin |
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| 11:00 AM-6:30 PM, Wednesday
Exhibits Open |
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| 12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Wednesday
Lunch Break (Cash and Carry in Exhibit Hall) |
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| 1:30 PM-2:30 PM, Wednesday, B305
Session 5 Probability forecasting |
Cochairs: Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, Univ. of Colorado/CIRES/CDC and NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; Marina Timofeyeva, UCAR, Silver Spring, MD
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| 1:30 PM | 5.1 | Development and evaluation of mesoscale lightning threat guidance for operational use at NWS forecast offices
Pete Saunders, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and H. E. Fuelberg |
| 1:45 PM | 5.2 | A quantile calibration method for producing economically valuable probabilistic weather forecasts of continuous variables
Thomas Nipen, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and R. B. Stull |
| 2:00 PM | 5.3 | Review of 20 ProbStat Conference, Poster Session II
Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO |
| 2:15 PM | 5.4 | Rank Histograms and Correlations
Caren Marzban, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. Wang, F. Kong, and S. Leyton |
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| 2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Wednesday
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break |
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| 2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Wednesday
Poster Session 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics Poster Session II |
Chair: Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO
|
| | 514 | Probability distributions of apparent temperature from ensemble MOS
Matthew Peroutka, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and G. Zylstra, T. Huntemann, and J. Wagner |
| | 515 | Probabilistic forecasts of winter thunderstorms around Amsterdam Airport Schiphol
Maurice J. Schmeits, KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands; and A. B. A. Slangen |
| | 516 | A comparison between raw ensemble output, Bayesian model averaging and logistic regression using ECMWF ensemble precipitation reforecasts
Maurice J. Schmeits, KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands; and C. J. Kok |
| | 517 | Comparison of artificial intelligence and statistical techniques for probabilistic forecasting of sky condition
Timothy J. Hall, The Aerospace Corporation, Chantilly, VA; and C. N. Mutchler, G. J. Bloy, R. N. Thessin, S. K. Gaffney, and J. J. Lareau |
| | 518 | Bayesian Processor of Ensemble: A Gaussian-Gamma Model
Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA |
| | 519 | MOGREPS ensemble-based Clear Air Turbulence products
Lisa J. Murray, UK Met Office, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom; and P. Gill, P. Buchanan, and K. Mylne |
| | 520 | NAEFS Probabilistic Forecast and Future Expansion
Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and B. Cui and Z. Toth |
| | 521 | Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling for Post-processing of Data from Numerical Weather Prediction Systems
Hongfei Li, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY; and L. A. Treinish |
| | 522 | The role of model bias in the multi-model ensemble approach
Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Li |
| | 523 | Linkage between pseudo-precipitation and precipitation distribution
Huiling Yuan, CIRES and NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and P. Schultz, Z. Toth, and J. C. Schaake |
| | 524 | NOAA Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook Performance Evaluation
Marina Timofeyeva, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and A. Hollingshead, S. Handel, M. Ou, J. Gottschalck, M. J. Menne, and C. N. Williams |
| | 525 | Verification of convective initiation patterns and coverage
Paul J. Croft, Kean Univ., Union, NJ; and T. Skic and A. M. Cope |
| | 526 | Performance of a Probabilistic Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Prediction Algorithm
Valliappa Lakshmanan, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. L. Cintineo and T. M. Smith |
| | 527 | Evaluation of Experimental Forecasts from the 2009 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment Using Both Traditional and Spatial Methods
Tara Jensen, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO; and B. Brown, M. Coniglio, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, and L. Nance |
| | 528 | Nonlinear Optical Flow for Verification
Caren Marzban, APL, Seattle, WA; and S. Sandgathe |
| | 530 | Verification of European Storm Forecast Experiment forecasts
Alex Kowaleski, Davidson College, Winter Springs, FL; and H. Brooks |
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| 4:00 PM-5:45 PM, Wednesday, B204
Joint Session 11 Probabilistic Forecasting for the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) (Joint between the 8th Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications to Environmental Science, the 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the 14th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, and the Presidential Forum) |
Cochairs: John K. Williams, NCAR, Boulder, CO; John J. Murray, NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA; Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD
|
| 4:00 PM | J11.1 | A proposed framework for estimating and reducing hourly-updated forecast uncertainty products for aviation applications in NextGen
Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and G. DiMego |
| 4:15 PM | J11.2 | Advances in the Collaborative Storm Prediction for Aviation (CoSPA)
J. Pinto, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Williams, M. Steiner, D. Albo, S. Dettling, W. Dupree, D. Morse, H. Iskenderian, T. Xiaofeng, M. Wolfson, C. Reiche, S. Weygandt, S. Benjamin, and C. Alexander |
| 4:30 PM | J11.3 | Probabilistic forecasting of ceiling and visibility at CONUS terminals: Development progress
Paul H. Herzegh, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. Lambi, J. Cowie, G. Wiener, R. Bateman, and J. Black |
| 4:45 PM | J11.4 | Using a genetic algorithm to estimate source term parameters of volcanic ash clouds
Kerrie J. Long, Penn State University, State College, PA; and D. Truesdell and S. E. Haupt |
| 5:00 PM | J11.5 | Techniques for providing probabilistic forecasts of turbulence for NextGen
Matthew J. Pocernich, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. D. Sharman and J. K. Williams |
| 5:15 PM | J11.6 | Regionalized probabilistic turbulence forecasting using machine learning with in-situ data
Jennifer Abernethy, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO; and R. D. Sharman and J. K. Williams |
| 5:30 PM | J11.7 | A probabilistic global turbulence nowcast and forecast system
John K. Williams, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. J. Kessinger, R. D. Sharman, W. F. Feltz, and A. Wimmers |
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| 5:30 PM-6:30 PM, Wednesday, Exhibit Hall B1
Reception in Exhibit Hall (Cash Bar) |
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| 7:00 PM-9:00 PM, Wednesday, Thomas Murphy Ballroom 1-4
AMS Annual Awards Banquet |
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| Thursday, 21 January 2010 |
| 7:30 AM-8:30 AM, Thursday, B208
Washington Symposium Breakfast |
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| 8:30 AM-9:45 AM, Thursday, B305
Session 6 Forecast Verification |
Cochairs: Robert E. Livezey, NWS Retired, Self-Employed Consultant, Bethesda, MD; Caren Marzban, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
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| 8:30 AM | 6.1 | Spatial forecast verification
E. Gilleland, NCAR, Boulder, CO |
| 8:45 AM | 6.2 | Tropical cyclone forecast verification at the National Hurricane Center
James L. Franklin, NOAA/NWS/NHC/TPC, MIami, FL |
| 9:00 AM | 6.3 | Bayesian Verification of Warnings
Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA |
| 9:15 AM | 6.4 | Model Verification Using Gaussian Mixture Models
Valliappa Lakshmanan, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain |
| 9:30 AM | 6.5 | Verification of wind forecasts with special attention to ramping events
Matthew Pocernich, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO |
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| 9:45 AM-1:30 PM, Thursday
Exhibits Open |
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| 9:45 AM-11:00 AM, Thursday
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break |
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| 11:00 AM-12:15 PM, Thursday, B305
Joint Session 10 Verification of Probabilistic Forecasts (Joint between the 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the 14th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, and the 8th Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications to Environmental Science) |
Cochairs: Bjarne Hansen, EC, Dorval, QC Canada; Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO; Valliappa Lakshmanan, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK
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| 11:00 AM | J10.1 | The three dimensions of prediction and service
Philip Chadwick, EC, Toronto, ON, Canada |
| 11:15 AM | J10.2 | Determining Optimal Thresholds for Inland Locations of Tropical Cyclone Incremental Wind Speed Probabilities to Support the Provision of Expressions of Uncertainty within Text Forecast Products
Pablo Santos, NOAA/NWS, Miami, FL; and M. DeMaria and D. W. Sharp |
| 11:30 AM | J10.3 | Verification of aviation turbulence detection, nowcast, and forecast products
John K. Williams, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. J. Pocernich, R. D. Sharman, and J. Abernethy |
| 11:45 AM | J10.4 | Evaluation of a probabilistic convective nowcast for CoSPA
D. Ahijevych, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Williams, S. Dettling, H. Cai, and M. Steiner |
| 12:00 PM | J10.5 | Choosing a scoring rule for verification of forecast probability distributions: Continuous ranked probability score or ignorance score?
Jonathan R. Moskaitis, NRL, Monterey, CA |
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| 12:15 PM-1:30 PM, Thursday, B206
Presidential Town Hall Meeting: Dr. Jane Lubchenco’s Plenary Luncheon (Cash and Carry lunch available outside of the meeting room) |
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| 1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Thursday, B211
Joint Session 8 New challenges for applied meteorology and climatology (Joint between the 18th Conference on Applied Climatology, the First Symposium on Planetary Atmospheres, the 14th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, the First Environment and Health Symposium, the 12th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry, the 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the First Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy, and the Fifth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research) |
Chair: Melissa Griffin, Florida Climate Center/Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL
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| 1:30 PM | J8.1 | Developing useful science: methods for engaging stakeholders and evaluating integrated climate tools
Gigi Owen, CLIMAS/University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and K. Averyt, K. Werner, and D. Ferguson |
| 1:45 PM | J8.2 | 10 years of the U.S. Drought Monitor: a look back and a look forward
Mark D. Svoboda, National Drought Mitigation Center, Lincoln, NE; and B. Fuchs, S. Scott, and J. Nothwehr |
| 2:00 PM | J8.3 | User-driven downscaling: advances in data apportioning and analysis to augment adaptation planning
Edwin P. Maurer, Santa Clara University, Santa Clara, CA; and L. D. Brekke, T. Pruitt, K. D. White, E. Ochs, P. Duffy, and E. H. Girvetz |
| 2:15 PM | J8.4 | Trends of U.S. snowfall and snow cover in a warming world, 1948-2008
Richard R. Heim Jr., NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC |
| 2:30 PM | J8.5 | Use of the Brazilian Model of Climate and Health (BHMC) in order to estimate admissions for respiratory diseases in Brazil
Micheline S. Z. S. Coelho, Weather Brasilian Service, São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil |
| 2:45 PM | J8.6 | Martian dust storm hazards: improving characterization and forecasting
Nicholas Heavens, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and M. I. Richardson, I. J. McEwan, and M. W. Busch |
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| 3:00 PM-3:30 PM, Thursday
Coffee Break in Meeting Room Foyer |
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| 3:30 PM-5:00 PM, Thursday, B305
Session 7 Ensemble prediction including post processing |
Cochairs: Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; David R. Bright, BPA, Portland, OR
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| 3:30 PM | 7.1 | Some Characteristics of GEFS Stochastic Perturbations
Dingchen Hou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, and W. Yang |
| 3:45 PM | 7.2 | Extracting Predictive Information from an Ensemble
Nah Youn Lee, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and R. Krzysztofowicz |
| 4:00 PM | 7.3 | Investigation of the Linear Variance Calibration using an idealized stochastic ensemble
Walter C. Kolczynski Jr., Penn State University, University Park, PA; and D. R. Stauffer, S. E. Haupt, and A. Deng |
| 4:15 PM | 7.4 | Quantile regression as a means of calibrating and verifying a mesoscale NWP ensemble
Thomas M. Hopson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. P. Hacker, Y. Liu, G. Roux, W. Wu, J. C. Knievel, T. T. Warner, S. P. Swerdlin, J. C. Pace, and S. F. Halvorson |
| 4:30 PM | 7.5 | Ensemble MOS forecasts from multiple models
John Wagner, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and B. Glahn |
| 4:45 PM | 7.6 | Pseudo-precipitation: a continuous variable for statistical post-processing
Paul Schultz, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and H. Yuan, Z. Toth, M. Charles, and R. Krzysztofowicz |
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| 5:00 PM-5:05 PM, Thursday
AMS 90th Annual Meeting Adjourns |
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