* - Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

Program Chairpersons:
Marina Timofeyeva, UCAR
Barbara Brown, NCAR
David Bright, BPA
Cécile Penland, NOAA/ESRL

Compact View of Conference

Sunday, 17 January 2010
	7:30 AM-9:00 AM, Sunday Short Course Registration
	9:00 AM-6:00 PM, Sunday Annual Meeting Registration Begins
	12:00 PM-4:00 PM, Sunday Weatherfest
	3:00 PM-4:00 PM, Sunday, B314 First-Time Attendee Briefing
	5:00 PM-6:00 PM, Sunday, B314 Annual Meeting Review and Fellows Awards
	6:00 PM-7:00 PM, Sunday, Exhibit Hall B2 Fellows Reception
Monday, 18 January 2010
	7:30 AM-5:30 PM, Monday Registration Open
	9:00 AM-10:30 AM, Monday, Thomas Murphy Ballroom 1 and 2 Presidential Forum
	10:30 AM-11:00 AM, Monday Coffee Break in Meeting Room Foyer
	11:00 AM-12:00 PM, Monday, B216 Joint Session 1 Mitigation and adaptation to climate change (Joint between the 12th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry, the 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the 24th Conference on Hydrology, the 22nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change, the First Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy, the Committee on Climate Services, the Fifth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research, and the First Environment and Health Symposium)
Chair: David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC
11:00 AM J1.1 Regional climate modeling and decision aids   Recorded presentation Glenn Higgins, Northrop Grumann TASC, Chantilly, VA; and D. Apling, R. Alliss, and H. Kiley 11:15 AM J1.2 Bounded rationality in climate change policy development   Amanda H. Lynch, Monash University, Clayton, Vic., Australia; and R. D. Brunner 11:30 AM J1.3 Seeing the world through a political lens: the connection between weather and climate change perceptions and beliefs   Recorded presentation Hank Jenkins-Smith, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. H. Goebbert, K. E. Klockow, M. Nowlin, and C. Silva 11:45 AM J1.4 Advancing Climate Adaptation in Wildlife Conservation   Recorded presentation Amanda Staudt, National Wildlife Federation, Reston, VA; and D. Inkley, P. Glick, B. Stein, N. Edelson, and J. Kostyack
	12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Monday Lunch Break
	1:30 PM-2:30 PM, Monday, B305 Session 1 Statistical analysis in the geophysical sciences I
Cochairs: Andrew W. Robertson, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; Cécile Penland, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO
1:30 PM 1.1 Classic Granger causality may not be appropriate for diagnosing CO2-temperature and other noisy relationships   Recorded presentation Evan Anton Kodra, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and S. Chatterjee and A. R. Ganguly 1:45 PM 1.2 Method to Improve Offshore Wind Energy Resource Assessments Using Cokriging   Recorded presentation Michael J. Dvorak, Stanford University, Stanford, CA; and A. Boucher and M. Z. Jacobson 2:00 PM 1.3 Varying-coefficient space-time models for short-term wind forecasting   Recorded presentation Amanda S. Hering, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO; and M. G. Genton and P. Pinson 2:15 PM 1.4 Review of 20 ProbStat Conference, Poster Session I   Recorded presentation Cécile Penland, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO
	2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Monday, Exhibit Hall B2 Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
	2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Monday, Exhibit Hall B2 Poster Session 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics Poster Session
Chair: Cécile Penland, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO
218 The equatorial QBO influence on the northern winter extratropical circulation   Hiroaki Naoe, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and K. Shibata   219 Real-time objective analysis of surface data at the Meteorological Development Laboratory   Jung-Sun Im, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and B. Glahn and J. E. Ghirardelli   220 Comparing NWS POP Forecasts to Third-Party Providers   Eric Bickel, The University of Texas, Austin, TX; and E. Floehr   221 Estimating the error of the BCDG analysis of surface data   Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. S. Im   222 Logit transforms in forecasting precipitation type   Phillip E. Shafer, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD   223 Predictability of Seasonal Precipitation Using Joint Probabilities   M. Tugrul Yilmaz, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and T. DelSole   224 Crop Yield Forecast Models that Maximize Explanatory Power of Climate Based Inputs from Satellite Observations   Alan Basist, Climate Predict Consulting, Raleigh, North Carolina; and J. Sivillo, S. Shen, and C. Lee   225 Stochastic Models of Severe Weather Watches and Warnings   Christopher Myers, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and R. Krzysztofowicz   226 Inter- and Intra- Seasonal Variability of Summer Thunderstorms determined by the ANOVA   Paul J. Croft, Kean Univ., Union, NJ; and W. Woubneh and C. Rosa   227 Orographic Signature on Multiscale Statistics of Extreme Rainfall   Mohammad Ebtehaj II, University of Minnesota, Saint Anthony Falls Laboratory, National Center for Earth Surface Dynamics, Minneapolis, MN; and E. foufoula-Georgiou   228 Efficient kriging for real-time spatio-temporal interpolation   Balaji Vasan Srinivasan, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and R. Duraiswami and R. Murtugudde   229 Toward regional climate-change downscaling of weather statistics using a hidden Markov model   Andrew W. Robertson, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and A. M. Greene, P. Smyth, and S. Triglia   230 Inclusion of New Variables in Bias Correction and Downscaling for NAEFS   Bo Cui, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu and Z. Toth   231 Urban heat island effects on human heat-stress values during the July 2006 Portland, Oregon heat wave   R. Bornstein, San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA; and A. Melford 232 Statistical modeling of daily stream temperature for mitigating fish mortality   R. Jason Caldwell, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and B. Rajagopalan   233 Extreme value analysis of precipitation series in the south of Iberian Peninsula   Jose Manuel Hidalgo-Muñoz, Universidad de Granada, Granada, Granada, Spain; and D. Argüeso, D. Calandria-Hernandez, S. R. Gamiz-Fortis, M. J. Esteban-Parra, and Y. Castro-Diez   234 Verification of maximum and minimum temperature forecasts from various agencies for Duluth, MN   Joshua Cossuth, Florida State University/COAPS, Tallahassee, FL   235 Probabilistic freeze forecasting in the Midwest and Florida   Eric R. Wenke, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC
	4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Monday, B312 Joint Session 2 The emergence of new scientific partnerships (Joint between the Fifth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research, the 14th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, the 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the 24th Conference on Hydrology, the 18th Conference on Applied Climatology, the First Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy, and the First Environment and Health Symposium)
Chair: Genevieve E. Maricle, Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ
4:00 PM J2.1 Climate Adaptation Partnerships in Semiarid North America   Recorded presentation Gregg M. Garfin, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 4:15 PM J2.2 The FEMA Hurricane Liaison Team: Bridging the Communication Gap (because Great Minds Don't Always Think Alike)   Matthew Green, FEMA, TBA, GA 4:30 PM J2.3 Partnership between the Državni hidrometeorološki zavod (DHMZ) and the University of Oklahoma (OU)   Recorded presentation Ivan Cacic, Državni hidrometeorološki zavod, Zagreb, Croatia; and B. Ivančan-Picek, B. Lipovšćak, K. Pandzic, B. Terek, V. Tutiš, G. Zuccon, K. Crawford, R. A. McPherson, K. L. Nemunaitis, and J. T. Snow 4:45 PM J2.4 The Norman, Oklahoma Chamber of Commerce Weather Committee: A Framework for New Partnerships Among Industry, Government and Academia   Recorded presentation Kelvin K. Droegemeier, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and W. L. Qualley, V. Rose, and A. M. Suggs 5:00 PM J2.5 The Weather And Society *Integrated Studies (WAS*IS) Program: yesterday, today, and tomorrow   Recorded presentation G. Thomas Behler Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. Gruntfest, J. Demuth, J. K. Lazo, and E. Laidlaw 5:15 PM J2.6 User engagement activities at NOAA's national climatic data center   Recorded presentation Tamara G. Houston, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC
	4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Monday, B305 Session 2 Statistical analysis in the geophysical sciences II
Cochairs: Marina Timofeyeva, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD
4:00 PM 2.1 Typical Day Meteorological Data in Support of ATD Modeling   Recorded presentation George D. Modica, AER, Lexington, MA; and S. Lowe, T. Nehrkorn, J. Wensell, J. Baldwin, G. McMullin, and R. Hoffman 4:15 PM 2.2 Statistical analysis of sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic Ocean   Constantin Andronache, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA 4:30 PM 2.3 Statistical Structure of the Global Significant Wave Heights   Recorded presentation Peter C. Chu, NPS, Monterey, CA; and Y. H. Kuo and G. Galanis 4:45 PM 2.4 Determining radiative heating profiles from satellite data using statistical classification and cluster analysis   Recorded presentation Nathaniel Beagley, PNNL, Richland, WA; and S. A. McFarlane, J. H. Mather, and J. E. Flaherty 5:00 PM 2.5 Statistical downscaling daily rainfall statistics from seasonal forecasts using canonical correlation analysis or a hidden Markov model?   Recorded presentation Andrew W. Robertson, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and K. Verbist 5:15 PM 2.6 GiST, A model for generating spatial-temporal daily rainfall data   Recorded presentation Guillermo A. Baigorria, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and J. W. Jones
	5:30 PM-7:30 PM, Monday, Exhibit Hall B1 Opening of the Exhibit Hall with Reception
Tuesday, 19 January 2010
	8:30 AM-9:45 AM, Tuesday, B306 Joint Session 3 Data Collection, Interpretation, Assimilation, and Stewardship (Joint between the 14th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS), the First Symposium on Planetary Atmospheres, the 14th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, the 12th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry, the 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the 24th Conference on Hydrology, and the 18th Conference on Applied Climatology)
Chair: Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO
8:30 AM J3.1 The Impacts on Air Traffic of Volcanic Ash from the 2009 Mt. Redoubt Eruption   Recorded presentation Alexander Matus, NASA, Hampton, VA; and L. A. Hudnall, J. J. Murray, and A. Krueger 8:45 AM J3.2 UrbanNet: Urban Environment Monitoring and Modeling with a Wireless Sensor Network   Recorded presentation Paul J. Croft, Kean Univ., Union, NJ; and P. Morreale, F. Qi, A. Tropek, and M. Andujar 9:00 AM J3.3 Network of Weather and Climate Observing Networks (NOWCON)   Recorded presentation Samuel P. Williamson, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, Silver Spring, MD; and J. E. Stailey and S. J. Taijeron 9:15 AM J3.4 Comparison of COOP and new HCN-M temperature products   Recorded presentation John R. Christy, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL 9:30 AM J3.5 The Impact of Temporally Varying Snowfall Rates on Holdover Time using the LWE and Check Time Systems   Recorded presentation Roy Rasmussen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Landolt, J. Black, and A. Gaydos
	9:45 AM-11:00 AM, Tuesday, Exhibit Hall B2 Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
	11:00 AM-6:00 PM, Tuesday, Exhibit Hall B1 Exhibits Open
	11:00 AM-12:00 PM, Tuesday, B305 Session 3 Extreme events in weather, water and climate
Cochairs: Robert D. Bornstein, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA; David Bright, BPA, Portland, OR
11:00 AM 3.1 Statistical modeling of hot spells and heat waves   Recorded presentation Richard W. Katz, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. M. Furrer and M. D. Walter 11:15 AM 3.2 Cooling of maximum temperatures in coastal California air basins during 1969–2005: monthly and extreme value trends   Recorded presentation A. Charland, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA; and B. Lebassi, J. Gonzalez, and R. Bornstein 11:30 AM 3.3 A climatology of heavy midlatitude rainfall across the United States from 1949–2000   Recorded presentation Elaine S. Godfrey, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. Crawford and M. Richman 11:45 AM 3.4 A novel financial market structure for mitigating hurricane risk   Daniel S. Wilks, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY
	12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Tuesday, B208 Kuettner Symposium Luncheon
12:00 PM B1.1 Joach Kuettner—A Man in Love with the Sky   Einar Enevoldson, The Perlan Project, Emeryville, CA
	12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Tuesday Lunch Break (Cash and Carry in Exhibit Hall)
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Tuesday, B305 Session 4 Meteorological, climatological, and hydrological predictions and projections
Cochairs: Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO; Daniel S. Wilks, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY
1:30 PM 4.1 Kalman filtered analogs to improve Numerical Weather Predictions   Recorded presentation Thomas Nipen, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and L. Delle Monache, J. P. Hacker, Y. Liu, R. B. Stull, and T. Warner 1:45 PM 4.2 Temperature forecast opportunities across the NWS Southern Region   Recorded presentation Bernard N. Meisner, NOAA/NWS Southern Region Headquarters, Fort Worth, TX; and N. S. Flecha 2:00 PM 4.3 Introduction on MOS Approaches for KMA Digital Forecast   JunTae Choi, Korean Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea; and Y. Seo and M. S. Lee 2:15 PM 4.4 Short-term wind power ramp forecasting using statistical and machine-learning techniques and off-site observations   Scott D. Otterson, 3TIER, Inc., Seattle, WA; and E. P. Grimit and A. W. Wood 2:30 PM 4.5 Improved short-term hurricane intensity forecasting using regression on core measurements   Recorded presentation D. Andrew Murray, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. Hart 2:45 PM 4.6 Time Series for Decadal Means of Temperature and Precipitation Under Global Warming in the Context of Observed Trends   Recorded presentation Ian G. Watterson, CSIRO, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia; and P. H. Whetton
	3:00 PM-3:30 PM, Tuesday, Exhibit Hall B1 Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall
	3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Tuesday, B216 Joint Session 4 Research on extreme weather and climate events and inter-relationships (Joint between the 22nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change, the First Symposium on Planetary Atmospheres, the First Environment and Health Symposium, the 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the 24th Conference on Hydrology, the 18th Conference on Applied Climatology, the First Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy, and the Committee on Climate Services)
Chair: David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC
3:30 PM J4.1 The relative increase of record high maximum temperatures compared to record low minimum temperatures in the U.S   Recorded presentation Gerald Meehl, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Tebaldi, G. Walton, D. R. Easterling, and L. R. McDaniel 3:45 PM J4.2 A common Midwestern question: Where have all our 90°F days gone?   Recorded presentation David Changnon, Northern Illinois Univ., DeKalb, IL; and V. Gensini and J. Prell 4:00 PM J4.3 Using large scale circulation indices to predict the intensity of cold air outbreaks over extended time scales across the southeastern U.S   Recorded presentation Charles E. Konrad, NOAA Southeastern Regional Climate Center, Chapel Hill, NC 4:15 PM J4.4 Heat waves and cold spells in a warming climate   Recorded presentation Karsten Steinhaeuser, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and A. R. Ganguly 4:30 PM J4.6 Extreme european weather regimes   Recorded presentation Ricardo Morais Fonseca, University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom; and B. J. Hoskins and M. Blackburn 4:45 PM J4.7 Meteorological features of observed trends in U.S. heavy precipitation events   Recorded presentation Kenneth E. Kunkel, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. R. Easterling, B. E. Gleason, D. A. R. Kristovich, R. A. Smith, and L. Ensor 5:00 PM J4.8 Contemporary climatic changes in North America and Northern Eurasia with foci on extreme events and transitions through environmentally and socio-economically significant thresholds   Pavel Ya. Groisman, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and R. W. Knight and T. R. Karl 5:15 PM J4.5 Climatological, meteorological, and societal implications for the large number of fatalities from central Florida Dry Season tornadoes during El Niño   Bartlett C. Hagemeyer, NOAA/NWS, Melbourne, FL; and L. A. Jordan, A. L. Moses, S. M. Spratt, and D. F. Van Dyke
Wednesday, 20 January 2010
	8:30 AM-10:00 AM, Wednesday, B215 Joint Session 5 Advances in Modeling, From Local through Regional to Large Scale, and From Deterministic to Ensemble-Probabilistic Prediction Part I (Joint between the 22nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change, the 14th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS), the First Symposium on Planetary Atmospheres, the 14th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, the 12th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry, the 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, and the 24th Conference on Hydrology)
Chair: Ed Olenic, NCEP, Camp Springs, MD
8:30 AM J5.1 On the seamless prediction of weather and climate   Recorded presentation Timothy N. Palmer, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom 8:45 AM J5.2 Performance of the NOAA FIM global ensemble prediction system for hurricanes during the 2009 season   Recorded presentation Tom Hamill, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker and S. Benjamin 9:00 AM J5.3 Why does cloud superparameterization improve the simulated daily rainfall cycle in a multiscale climate modeling framework?   Recorded presentation Michael S. Pritchard, SIO/Univ. Of California, La Jolla, CA; and R. C. J. Somerville 9:15 AM J5.4 North Pacific decadal variability and climate change in the IPCC AR4 models   Recorded presentation Jason C. Furtado, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and E. Di Lorenzo 9:30 AM J5.5 Aquaplanet GCM simulations of tropical intraseasonal variability   Recorded presentation Eric D. Maloney, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and W. Hannah 9:45 AM J5.6 Factors affecting forecast skill of the MJO over the Maritime Continent   Recorded presentation Augustin Vintzileos, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC - SAIC, Camp Springs, MD
	10:00 AM-10:30 AM, Wednesday Coffee Break in Meeting Room Foyer
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Wednesday, B215 Joint Session 6 Advances in Modeling, From Local through Regional to Large Scale, and From Deterministic to Ensemble-Probabilistic Prediction Part II (Joint between the 22nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change, the 14th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS), the First Symposium on Planetary Atmospheres, the 14th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, the 12th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry, the 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, and the 24th Conference on Hydrology)
Chair: Ed Olenic, NCEP, Camp Springs, MD
10:30 AM J6.1 Quantifying Contributions to Polar Warming Amplification in a Coupled General Circulation Model   Recorded presentation Ming Cai, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and J. Lu 10:45 AM J6.2 The development of a coupled hurricane storm surge forecasting Model for the Pascagoula River   Recorded presentation David A. Ramirez Jr., NOAA/NWS, Slidell, LA 11:00 AM J6.3 Evaluation of the new Australian climate model ACCESS   Recorded presentation Ian G. Watterson, CAWCR, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia; and L. Rikus, B. Hu, and T. Elliott 11:15 AM J6.4 Mesoscale circulations in the urban-coastal environment: a modeling analysis and assessment of sensitivity to high-fidelity representation of the urban canopy   Recorded presentation Michael Carter, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS; and J. M. Shepherd, S. Burian, and I. Jeyachandran 11:30 AM J6.5 Ensemble downscaling of seasonal forecasts   Recorded presentation R. W. Arritt, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 11:45 AM J6.6 The misrepresentation of Tropical SSTs in climate models   Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, Univ. of Colorado/CIRES/CDC and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO; and S. I. Shin
	11:00 AM-6:30 PM, Wednesday Exhibits Open
	12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Wednesday Lunch Break (Cash and Carry in Exhibit Hall)
	1:30 PM-2:30 PM, Wednesday, B305 Session 5 Probability forecasting
Cochairs: Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, Univ. of Colorado/CIRES/CDC and NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; Marina Timofeyeva, UCAR, Silver Spring, MD
1:30 PM 5.1 Development and evaluation of mesoscale lightning threat guidance for operational use at NWS forecast offices   Recorded presentation Pete Saunders, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and H. E. Fuelberg 1:45 PM 5.2 A quantile calibration method for producing economically valuable probabilistic weather forecasts of continuous variables   Recorded presentation Thomas Nipen, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and R. B. Stull 2:00 PM 5.3 Review of 20 ProbStat Conference, Poster Session II   Recorded presentation Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO 2:15 PM 5.4 Rank Histograms and Correlations   Recorded presentation Caren Marzban, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. Wang, F. Kong, and S. Leyton
	2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Wednesday, Exhibit Hall B2 Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
	2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Wednesday, Exhibit Hall B2 Poster Session 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics Poster Session
Chair: Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO
514 Probability distributions of apparent temperature from ensemble MOS   Matthew Peroutka, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and G. Zylstra, T. Huntemann, and J. Wagner   515 Probabilistic forecasts of winter thunderstorms around Amsterdam Airport Schiphol   Maurice J. Schmeits, KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands; and A. B. A. Slangen   Poster 516 moved. New paper number J10.1A     517 Comparison of artificial intelligence and statistical techniques for probabilistic forecasting of sky condition   Timothy J. Hall, The Aerospace Corporation, Chantilly, VA; and C. N. Mutchler, G. J. Bloy, R. N. Thessin, S. K. Gaffney, and J. J. Lareau   518 Bayesian Processor of Ensemble: A Gaussian-Gamma Model   Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA   519 MOGREPS ensemble-based Clear Air Turbulence products   Lisa J. Murray, UK Met Office, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom; and P. Gill, P. Buchanan, and K. Mylne   520 NAEFS Probabilistic Forecast and Future Expansion   Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and B. Cui and Z. Toth   521 Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling for Post-processing of Data from Numerical Weather Prediction Systems   Hongfei Li, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY; and L. A. Treinish   522 The role of model bias in the multi-model ensemble approach   Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Li   523 Linkage between pseudo-precipitation and precipitation distribution   Huiling Yuan, CIRES and NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and P. Schultz, Z. Toth, and J. C. Schaake   524 NOAA Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook Performance Evaluation   Marina Timofeyeva, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and A. Hollingshead, S. Handel, M. Ou, J. Gottschalck, M. J. Menne, and C. N. Williams   525 Verification of convective initiation patterns and coverage   Paul J. Croft, Kean Univ., Union, NJ; and T. Skic and A. M. Cope   526 Performance of a Probabilistic Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Prediction Algorithm   Valliappa Lakshmanan, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. L. Cintineo and T. M. Smith   527 Evaluation of Experimental Forecasts from the 2009 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment Using Both Traditional and Spatial Methods   Tara Jensen, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO; and B. Brown, M. Coniglio, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, and L. Nance   528 Nonlinear Optical Flow for Verification   Caren Marzban, APL, Seattle, WA; and S. Sandgathe   Poster 529 moved. New paper number 5.4     530 Verification of European Storm Forecast Experiment forecasts   Alex Kowaleski, Davidson College, Winter Springs, FL; and H. Brooks
	4:00 PM-5:45 PM, Wednesday, B204 Joint Session 11 Probabilistic Forecasting for the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) (Joint between the 8th Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications to Environmental Science, the 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the 14th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, and the Presidential Forum)
Cochairs: John K. Williams, NCAR, Boulder, CO; John J. Murray, NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA; Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD
4:00 PM J11.1 A proposed framework for estimating and reducing hourly-updated forecast uncertainty products for aviation applications in NextGen   Recorded presentation Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and G. DiMego 4:15 PM J11.2 Advances in the Collaborative Storm Prediction for Aviation (CoSPA)   Recorded presentation J. Pinto, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Williams, M. Steiner, D. Albo, S. Dettling, W. Dupree, D. Morse, H. Iskenderian, T. Xiaofeng, M. Wolfson, C. Reiche, S. Weygandt, S. Benjamin, and C. Alexander 4:30 PM J11.3 Probabilistic forecasting of ceiling and visibility at CONUS terminals: Development progress   Recorded presentation Paul H. Herzegh, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. Lambi, J. Cowie, G. Wiener, R. Bateman, and J. Black 4:45 PM J11.4 Using a genetic algorithm to estimate source term parameters of volcanic ash clouds   Recorded presentation Kerrie J. Long, Penn State University, State College, PA; and D. Truesdell and S. E. Haupt 5:00 PM J11.5 Techniques for providing probabilistic forecasts of turbulence for NextGen   Recorded presentation Matthew J. Pocernich, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. D. Sharman and J. K. Williams 5:15 PM J11.6 Regionalized probabilistic turbulence forecasting using machine learning with in-situ data   Recorded presentation Jennifer Abernethy, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO; and R. D. Sharman and J. K. Williams 5:30 PM J11.7 A probabilistic global turbulence nowcast and forecast system   Recorded presentation John K. Williams, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. J. Kessinger, R. D. Sharman, W. F. Feltz, and A. Wimmers
	5:30 PM-6:30 PM, Wednesday, Exhibit Hall B1 Reception in Exhibit Hall (Cash Bar)
	7:00 PM-9:00 PM, Wednesday, Thomas Murphy Ballroom 1-4 AMS Annual Awards Banquet
Thursday, 21 January 2010
	7:30 AM-8:30 AM, Thursday, B208 Washington Symposium Breakfast
	8:30 AM-9:45 AM, Thursday, B305 Session 6 Forecast Verification
Cochairs: Robert E. Livezey, NWS Retired, Self-Employed Consultant, Bethesda, MD; Caren Marzban, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
8:30 AM 6.1 Spatial forecast verification   E. Gilleland, NCAR, Boulder, CO 8:45 AM 6.2 Tropical cyclone forecast verification at the National Hurricane Center   Recorded presentation James L. Franklin, NOAA/NWS/NHC/TPC, MIami, FL 9:00 AM 6.3 Bayesian Verification of Warnings   Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 9:15 AM 6.4 Model Verification Using Gaussian Mixture Models   Recorded presentation Valliappa Lakshmanan, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain 9:30 AM 6.5 Verification of wind forecasts with special attention to ramping events   Recorded presentation Matthew Pocernich, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO
	9:45 AM-1:30 PM, Thursday Exhibits Open
	9:45 AM-11:00 AM, Thursday, Exhibit Hall B2 Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
	11:00 AM-12:15 PM, Thursday, B305 Joint Session 10 Verification of Probabilistic Forecasts (Joint between the 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the 14th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, and the 8th Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications to Environmental Science)
Cochairs: Bjarne Hansen, EC, Dorval, QC Canada; Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO; Valliappa Lakshmanan, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK
11:00 AM J10.1A A comparison between raw ensemble output, Bayesian model averaging and logistic regression using ECMWF ensemble precipitation reforecasts   Maurice J. Schmeits, KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands; and C. J. Kok J10.1 The three dimensions of prediction and service   Philip Chadwick, EC, Toronto, ON, Canada 11:15 AM J10.2 Determining Optimal Thresholds for Inland Locations of Tropical Cyclone Incremental Wind Speed Probabilities to Support the Provision of Expressions of Uncertainty within Text Forecast Products   Recorded presentation Pablo Santos, NOAA/NWS, Miami, FL; and M. DeMaria and D. W. Sharp 11:30 AM J10.3 Verification of aviation turbulence detection, nowcast, and forecast products   Recorded presentation John K. Williams, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. J. Pocernich, R. D. Sharman, and J. Abernethy 11:45 AM J10.4 Evaluation of a probabilistic convective nowcast for CoSPA   Recorded presentation D. Ahijevych, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Williams, S. Dettling, H. Cai, and M. Steiner 12:00 PM J10.5 Choosing a scoring rule for verification of forecast probability distributions: Continuous ranked probability score or ignorance score?   Recorded presentation Jonathan R. Moskaitis, National Research Council, Monterey, CA
	12:15 PM-1:30 PM, Thursday, B206 Presidential Town Hall Meeting: Dr. Jane Lubchenco’s Plenary Luncheon (Cash and Carry lunch available outside of the meeting room)
12:15 PM Panelist: Jane Lubchenco   Jane Lubchenco, NOAA Administrater, Washington, DC
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Thursday, B211 Joint Session 8 New challenges for applied meteorology and climatology (Joint between the 18th Conference on Applied Climatology, the First Symposium on Planetary Atmospheres, the 14th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, the First Environment and Health Symposium, the 12th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry, the 20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, the First Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy, and the Fifth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research)
Chair: Melissa Griffin, Florida Climate Center/Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL
1:30 PM J8.1 Developing useful science: methods for engaging stakeholders and evaluating integrated climate tools   Recorded presentation Gigi Owen, CLIMAS/University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and K. Averyt, K. Werner, and D. Ferguson 1:45 PM J8.2 10 years of the U.S. Drought Monitor: a look back and a look forward   Recorded presentation Mark D. Svoboda, National Drought Mitigation Center, Lincoln, NE; and B. Fuchs, S. Scott, and J. Nothwehr 2:00 PM J8.3 User-driven downscaling: advances in data apportioning and analysis to augment adaptation planning   Recorded presentation Edwin P. Maurer, Santa Clara University, Santa Clara, CA; and L. D. Brekke, T. Pruitt, K. D. White, E. Ochs, P. Duffy, and E. H. Girvetz 2:15 PM J8.4 Trends of U.S. snowfall and snow cover in a warming world, 1948-2008   Recorded presentation Richard R. Heim Jr., NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC J8.5 Use of the Brazilian Model of Climate and Health (BHMC) in order to estimate admissions for respiratory diseases in Brazil   Micheline S. Z. S. Coelho, Weather Brasilian Service, São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil 2:30 PM J8.6 Martian dust storm hazards: improving characterization and forecasting   Nicholas Heavens, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and M. I. Richardson, I. J. McEwan, and M. W. Busch
	3:00 PM-3:30 PM, Thursday Coffee Break in Meeting Room Foyer
	3:30 PM-5:00 PM, Thursday, B305 Session 7 Ensemble prediction including post processing
Cochairs: Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; David R. Bright, BPA, Portland, OR
3:30 PM 7.1 Some Characteristics of GEFS Stochastic Perturbations   Recorded presentation Dingchen Hou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, and W. Yang 3:45 PM 7.2 Extracting Predictive Information from an Ensemble   Nah Youn Lee, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and R. Krzysztofowicz 4:00 PM 7.3 Investigation of the Linear Variance Calibration using an idealized stochastic ensemble   Recorded presentation Walter C. Kolczynski Jr., Penn State University, University Park, PA; and D. R. Stauffer, S. E. Haupt, and A. Deng 4:15 PM 7.4 Quantile regression as a means of calibrating and verifying a mesoscale NWP ensemble   Recorded presentation Thomas M. Hopson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. P. Hacker, Y. Liu, G. Roux, W. Wu, J. C. Knievel, T. T. Warner, S. P. Swerdlin, J. C. Pace, and S. F. Halvorson 4:30 PM 7.5 Ensemble MOS forecasts from multiple models   Recorded presentation John Wagner, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and B. Glahn 4:45 PM 7.6 Pseudo-precipitation: a continuous variable for statistical post-processing   Recorded presentation Paul Schultz, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and H. Yuan, Z. Toth, M. Charles, and R. Krzysztofowicz
	5:00 PM-5:05 PM, Thursday AMS 90th Annual Meeting Adjourns

Browse the complete program of The 90th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting