Teleconnections and Drivers of Regional Flash Droughts in the United States

Flash drought is the rapid intensification of drought like conditions. Severe flash droughts can cause billions of dollars in damage to the agriculture and water resource sectors threatening food and water security. Climate models predict an increase in flash drought intensity and frequency globally, throughout the rest of this century. To minimize future damage, the prediction of flash drought is of increasing importance. Prediction relies on a full understanding of regional drivers and the larger teleconnections that cause flash drought development. As such, this study will attempt to examine the primary and secondary drivers of flash drought in three regions within the conterminous United States. Multiple major flash droughts will be analyzed in each area including the Southern Great Plains, Southeast, and Midwest Corn belt. ERA 5 reanalysis data will be used to quantify longer temporal changes in sea surface temperatures caused by the El Nino Surface Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Including examination of their influence on Rossby wave packets, integrated vapor transport, and the development of blocking high pressure systems. Further, to identify similarities between events within regions, more region-specific analysis will look at localized precipitation, evaporative stress, temperature, humidity, soil moisture, and vegetation density anomalies leading up to the genesis of flash drought.