Wednesday, 15 January 2025: 8:45 AM
343 (New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
The Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall (FFaIR) Experiment is part of the Hydrometeorology Testbed at the Weather Prediction Center. The experiment sits at the intersection of research to operations and provides a platform for the evaluation of new guidance and tools in a pseudo-operational setting. The 2024 FFaIR Experiment, which ran from June 10 to Aug. 2, was centered around the evaluation of two ensembles along with their membership, the HREF, which is operational and the REFS, which is experimental. The REFS is part of the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) and the NWS is working towards implementation of the system and the retirement of the HREF and most of its membership. With this in mind the FFaIR team developed an experiment to explore the REFS’s performance against that of the HREF as it relates to the prediction of heavy rainfall and flash flooding. This was accomplished through data denial forecasting activities, analysis of quantitative precipitation forecasts in 24-h, 6-h, and 1-h accumulations and FFaIR participant feedback on the ensemble suites in realtime and retroactively during subjective verification sessions. This talk will cover the results from the data denial experiment and any deficiencies the REFS suite had when compared to the HREF suite.
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner