Session 9A Advancing Hazards Forecasting and Decision Support through NOAA Testbeds and Proving Grounds I

Wednesday, 15 January 2025: 8:30 AM-10:00 AM
343 (New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 15th Conference On Transition Of Research To Operations (15R2O)
Cochairs:
Chandra R. Kondragunta, NWS, Silver Spring, MD and James A. Nelson Jr., NWS, WPC, College Park, MD

The NOAA Testbeds and Proving Grounds (TBPGs) are cross-NOAA networks that are crucial for transitioning research on hazards forecasting and risk communication into operations at NOAA. TBPGs are working relationships for developmental testing, in a quasi-operational framework among researchers and operational scientists /experts (measurement specialists, forecasters, IT specialists, social scientists, etc.) including partners in academia, the private sector and government agencies, aimed at solving operational problems or enhancing operations, all in the context of user needs. TBPGs have four major roles. First, they are devoted to testing, evaluating, and refining the emerging probabilistic innovations that are at the forefront of forecasting a continuum of environmental threats. Second, they design and develop products to communicate risk in order to advance actionable outlooks, watches, and warnings. This includes translating hazards into impacts, optimizing watches/warnings, and facilitating social science studies to understand how these products are interpreted. Third, they put innovations in front of NOAA forecasters and users, including emergency managers and broadcast meteorologists, to introduce them to new products and get feedback on their development. Finally, they provide feedback from operations and testing into research and research priorities. Testing and evaluation are iterative, with innovations often going through several rounds of testing and refinement in experiments.
 
This session will include presentations from facilitators, researchers, and developers in TBPG activities across a range of hazards, and across the four types of testbed roles, including the testing and evaluation of advanced modeling, data assimilation, science and product development to advance forecasting and communication of those hazards. These hazards include, but are not limited to, aviation, fire and space weather, heavy precipitation, heat, winter storms, severe storms and tornadoes, hurricanes, hazards in the Arctic and Alaska, and coastal and ocean hazards.
 
Ultimately these innovations in weather, water, and climate applications are available for use by decision makers and other end users and the public for societal benefits. This session will illustrate the roles and efforts of TBPGs to conduct testing and evaluation to enable and accelerate the transition of innovations to NOAA operations, including products and services on environmental hazards at the National Weather Service, National Ocean Service, and the National Environmental Satellite and Data Information Service.

Conveners: Chandra Kondragunta (NOAA/OAR/WPO), Andrea Ray (NOAA/OAR/PSL), 
James Nelson (NOAA/NWS/WPC), Jordan Dale (NOAA/OAR/WPO), Louisa Nance (NCAR/RAL/JNT)

Papers:
8:30 AM
9A.1
The NOAA Testbeds & Proving Grounds: Advancing probabilistic hazards forecasting for decision support
Andrea J. Ray, NOAA/Earth System Research Lab, Boulder, CO; and J. A. Nelson Jr., A. Gerard, J. J. Brost, S. J. Avey, J. Dale, J. Correia Jr., T. Fanara, W. A. Hogsett, P. T. Marsh, L. B. Nance, E. M. Petrescu, M. Rosencrans, J. W. Scheck, C. Siewert, J. A. Sippel, P. J. Stone, Z. Tolby, and J. G. Yoe

8:45 AM
9A.2
2024 Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall (FFaIR) Experiment: Summary of HREF and REFS Membership Performance
Sarah Marie Trojniak, CIRES-CIESRDS @ NOAA/NWS/WPC/HMT, College Park, MD; and J. Correia Jr., W. M. Bartolini, T. Burg, B. S. Albright, and J. A. Nelson Jr.

9:00 AM
9A.3
FV3-LAM CAM Ensemble Predictions and Consensus Products for Predicting Heavy Rain in Recent FFaIR Experiments
Keith A. Brewster, CAPS, Norman, OK; and N. A. Snook, J. Park, A. Berrington, M. R. Baldwin, and M. Xue

9:15 AM
9A.4
Results from the Weather Prediction Center's 2023-2024 Winter Weather Experiment
W. Massey Bartolini, CIRES @ NOAA/NWS/WPC/HMT, College Park, MD; and J. Correia Jr., S. M. Trojniak, T. Burg, B. S. Albright, K. J. Harnos, and J. A. Nelson Jr.

9:30 AM
9A.5
FV3-LAM Convection-Allowing Model Forecasts and Ensemble Consensus Products for the Winter Weather Experiment
Nathan A. Snook, CAPS, Norman, OK; and K. A. Brewster, A. Berrington, J. Park, M. R. Baldwin, and M. Xue

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