Probabilistic IDSS Training in the National Weather Service

A highly trained scientific workforce is essential for the success of probabilistic impact-based decision support services (IDSS). The National Weather Service is currently assessing the knowledge, skills, and abilities needed within its operational workforce to create an effective training plan for probabilistic IDSS. This approach marks a shift from traditional module-based learning to a model of “continuous experiential learning.” This new model integrates ongoing partner interactions, full-scale simulations, immersive exercises, real-world event analysis, feedback loops, and the implementation of improvements. In this presentation, we will discuss initial initiatives in probabilistic IDSS training, including “Ensemble Fluency,” probabilistic communication strategies, and the IDSS deployment “boot camps.” We will also explore future plans for enhancing probabilistic IDSS training and engage in a broader discussion on the essential competencies required to support a probabilistic IDSS operational model.