Topic: Embracing Probabilistic Decision Support Services: How Operational Meteorology and Hydrology Will Change in the Next 10 Years (105th AMS Annual Meeting)

Monday, 13 January 2025: 8:30 AM-10:00 AM

206 (New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/29th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP); and the Symposium on Careers in Operational Government Meteorology and Hydrology )

Cochairs:

Derek Dornsife and Christine Kruse, NWSFO, Salt Lake City, UT

Change is ever-present in the physical sciences. With increasing access to machine learning (ML), artificial intelligence (AI), and highly skilled ensemble modeling, the degree of change over the next 10 years is expected to be unprecedented. This session will focus on the ongoing evolution in operational meteorology and hydrology, including the increased focus on leveraging probabilistic data and cutting-edge techniques to provide more accurate and actionable decision support services for end users. Oral presentations and posters exploring the changing landscape of operational meteorology and hydrology are encouraged, with potential topics ranging from innovative applications of AI/ML to utilizing and communicating probabilistic information throughout the forecast process.

Papers:

8:30 AM

J1A.1

NWS Probabilistic Impact-based Decision Support Services - Delivering Science-based Probabilistic Forecast Information

Kathryn K. Gilbert, NWS, College Park, MD; and R. Bandy, J. S. Waldstreicher, G. Cooper, S. B. Smith, M. E. Jeglum, S. Perfater, A. Foster, K. Scharfenberg, J. S. Lee, M. J. Glaudemans, J. Brooks, G. Mann, A. Boxell, B. Smith, D. E. Levin, M. J. Moreland, D. C. Strom, K. E. Landry-Guyton, J. J. Brost, S. R. Baxter, B. De Rosa, and D. Nagele, PhD

8:45 AM

J1A.2

Probabilistic IDSS Training in the National Weather Service

Kevin A. Scharfenberg, NWS, Boulder, CO; NWS OCLO/FDTD, Boulder, CO; and J. Keeney, J. K. Jordan, J. S. Waldstreicher, D. E. Levin, and M. J. Moreland

9:00 AM

J1A.3

How to Make Weather Information Beneficial for Society: A Multidisciplinary Story

Matthew E. Jeglum, NOAA/NWS, Salt Lake City, UT

9:15 AM

J1A.4

Revisiting Cost-Loss Decision Making with Deterministic and Ensemble Forecast Data.

Thomas M. Hamill, The Weather Company, Boulder, CO

9:30 AM

J1A.5

An Assessment of Ensemble Forecast Performance: Where We Are and Where We Should Go?

Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD