Assessing the Hypothesis that Nonlinear Schrödinger Equation Explains Atmospheric Blocking

Atmospheric blocking (the stagnation of the weather systems) often causes weather extremes in the mid- to high-latitudes, yet its first-order dynamics are still not well understood. While synoptic weather systems typically last 3-5 days, atmospheric blocking can last 10-20 days. Despite rich literature, atmospheric blocking’s first-order dynamics remain enigmatic. Nonlinear dispersive waves play a fundamental role in nature, especially for large-scale Rossby waves. In the 1970s applied mathematicians Benney and collaborators proposed the celebrated nonlinear Schrodinger (NLS) equation as the canonical evolution equation governing the propagation of the slowly varying wave packet envelope. For atmospheric and climate systems, while we are obtaining abundant data through satellite and in-situ observations, whether the Nonlinear Schrödinger Equation is relevant to the observations and may serve as a governing equation for atmospheric blocking and the associated extreme weather events remains an open question. We will assess the key hypothesis that enables atmospheric blocking to be governed by the NLS Equation using ERA5 reanalysis product and idealized simulations. Further, we will utilize a physics-informed data-driven approach to discover the key underlying equation to further improve the predictability of blocking.