Monday, 23 June 2003: 5:14 PM
The Utility of Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts in the Real-Time Prediction of Severe Convective Weather at the Storm Prediction Center
A collaborative experiment aimed at developing, testing, and evaluating the operational utility of short-range ensemble forecasts (SREFs) as guidance for severe weather forecasting was conducted as part of the annual SPC/NSSL Spring Program at the Storm Prediction Center during 2003. Participants included the Storm Prediction Center, the National Severe Storms Laboratory, the Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, as well as scientists and forecasters from other government and academic institutions.
The SREF forecast provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) served as the principle SREF system evaluated during the eight week experiment. In addition to the NCEP SREF, an experimental NSSL adjoint technique allowed forecasters to identify areas of uncertainty during the convective outlook period, and produce an analysis sensitive to the forecaster determined uncertainty. The results of the adjoint technique
served as ensemble perturbations in a locally generated 32-member short-range ensemble. Additional numerical forecasts were also combined at the SPC to produce a super-ensemble.
An overview of the Spring Program and preliminary results will be presented. An assessment of SREF usefulness in the SPC operational environment is offered, as well as knowledge gained concerning future products, visualization software, and training requirements.
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