10th Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Session 2: Mesoscale Predictability I

Monday, 23 June 2003: 2:30 PM-5:30 PM
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Chair:  Fuqing Zhang, Texas A&M University
Papers:
  2:30 PM
2.1
Predictability of Intermittent Mesoscale Phenomena
David J. Stensrud, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK

  3:15 PM
2.2
Calibration of ensemble spread using forecast spectra
Joshua P. Hacker, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. P. Baumhefner

Poster PDF (188.1 kB)
  3:30 PM
2.3
Growth of small-scale errors within moist baroclinic waves
Chris Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and F. Zhang, R. Rotunno, and Z. M. Tan

  3:45 PM
2.4
Mesoscale Predictability and Process Issues: Conclusions from Five Years of Real-Time Regional Forecasts
Clifford F. Mass, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA

  4:00 PM
2.5
Toward short-range ensemble prediction of mesoscale forecast skill
Eric P. Grimit, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass

 
2.6
Investigation of the ETA Ensemble QPF for elevated convection in the Midwest

  4:15 PM
2.7
Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction of Mid-Latitude Cyclones
Bo Cui, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and M. K. Ramamurthy

Poster PDF (222.4 kB)
  4:30 PM
2.8
The Utility of Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts in the Real-Time Prediction of Severe Convective Weather at the Storm Prediction Center
David R. Bright, NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK; and S. J. Weiss, J. J. Levit, and D. J. Stensrud

Poster PDF (182.4 kB)
  4:45 PM
2.1a
Coffee Break

  5:15 PM
2.6a
Some simple but effective ensemble generation techniques
Xuguang Wang, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. Bishop and S. J. Julier

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