Automated analysis and forecast Techniques for ceiling and visibility on the national scale

Over the period 1989 though 1998, flight hazards associated with adverse ceiling and visibility conditions claimed the lives of 1685 people (averaging 168 per year) within the U.S. general aviation and charter/air taxi communities. Key thrusts toward improving this safety record include improved methods supporting the analysis and forecasting of ceiling and visibility (C&V) conditions across the continental U.S., rapid updates of these analyses and forecasts to reflect changing conditions, and improved access to resultant products for forecaster and end user alike.

Recent development of an exploratory automated C&V analysis and forecast system for aviation applications in the continental U.S. has utilized expert system methodology to merge operational numerical and observational inputs in the synthesis of automated analyses and forecasts out to twelve hours. The system has yielded encouraging early results. This paper will highlight current system methodology, analysis and forecast performance, and system development efforts in progress.