13th Conference on Applied Climatology and the 10th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

Wednesday, 15 May 2002: 3:45 PM
Status of RUC convection forecasts in the 3-6h range
John M. Brown, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. Benjamin, G. Grell, J. Hart, and J. L. Mahoney
The skill of 3-6 hour RUC forecasts of parameterized convection is examined by comparison against observations as a means of assessing the state of the art in forecasts of convection by numerical models for aviation purposes. The 20km RUC is used for this assessment. It incorporates a new version of the Grell convective parameterization scheme, including an ensemble approach to determining the existence and intensity of convection. The 20km RUC also includes use of GOES effective cloud amount to help specify areas of deep convection at the model initial time. This evaluation uses the FSL-developed Real-Time Verification System (RTVS), which has been used previously for assessment of other short-term convection forecasts. Verification will be done for a period in spring 2002. The presentation will also include a case study representative of overall results.

Supplementary URL: