Plumes, Probabilities, and Posts: How Social Media Coverage Evolved in the 2019 Hazardous Weather Testbed Probabilistic Hazard Information Experiment

Broadcast meteorologists serve a critical and complex role in the communication of weather warnings. Surveys conducted after tornadic events indicate that approximately 85% of respondents receive severe weather warnings from local broadcast meteorologists (Hammer and Schmidlin 2002; Sherman-Morris 2005; Schmidlin 2008). Viewers cite trust of broadcaster advice as a main influence in deciding to seek shelter (Hammer and Schmidlin 2002; Sherman-Morris 2005). Even as cell phones have become an increasingly popular way for the public receive warnings, surveys continue to indicate that television is the primary source of tornado warnings nationwide (Silva et al. 2017, 2018). In a survey given during the rise of the digital era, it was found that 80% of Americans and 69% of online users felt that it would be useful for national emergency response organizers to monitor social media websites routinely, including meteorologists (Alexander 2014).

Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) is a next-generation approach to National Weather Service (NWS) watches/warnings that will deliver user-specific, probabilistic hazard information (PHI) for improved decision making. As research with PHI matures and approaches operational use, an outstanding question exists about how PHI should relate to the current warning paradigm. Due to their role as intermediaries between NWS forecasters and the publics, two broadcast meteorologists, working in a team environment, were included in each week of the 2018 Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI) and the 2019 HWT PHI-Hazard Services (HS-PHI) projects. Research protocols were developed and used to systematically study how broadcast meteorologists interpret, use, and communicate probabilistic information. Broadcast participants performed typical job functions under a simulated television studio environment with chroma key (developed within the Oklahoma Weather Lab). The broadcasters received experimental warnings and PHI (tornado, wind/hail and lightning) for displaced real time events.

Broadcasters used both on-air and social media outlets to communicate PHI to their audiences. Researchers concentrated on communication challenges and investigated the interplay between the PHI plume and the traditional warning polygon, and whether they should be intrinsically connected. Decision points of interest included when to run crawls, post to social media, interrupt commercials, and interrupt programming. In the October 2019 experiment, participants are exposed to six severe weather scenarios. Using protected social media accounts, broadcasters are prompted to keep their audiences updated on the unfolding situation. Comparing the simulated coverage with real-world tweets that were sent during the actual event, this presentation focuses on the evolution of social media coverage with PHI. Results may also evaluate how coverage is done in Spanish and communications issues will be compared to English.