Putting Multiple Probabilistic Products before End Users: The 2019 HWT Emergency Manager Experiments

Since 2015, the Hazardous Weather Testbed has hosted emergency managers (EMs) as part of its experiments with Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI). Over the years, the EMs provided feedback and guidance on the product and its design during simulated events, but frequently reported that the experiment - focused on the PHI timescale of around an hour ahead of storm impact - did not extend into the timescales when they would make the majority of their decisions in real life. At the same time, under the Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) paradigm, several new technologies came under development at NSSL and SPC that provided probabilistic information for other time frames. With the recognition that the full FACETs paradigm could involve the communication of complex probabilistic information, including information on multiple spatio-temporal scales, the 2019 EM experiments seized on this opportunity to present multiple reference classes to its participants and extend into the timescales when most EMs said they needed information. Experimental information included PHI, Warn-on-Forecast, Potential Severe Timing, and experimental SPC products. This presentation will provide a brief overview of the new products and their designs, and report results from the EM experiments, including the ability of EMs to understand and utilize multiple kinds of probabilistic information. The novel approach taken in this study is the first time the full FACETs paradigm has been put to the test, and will inform future research and transition activities for FACETs.