4.3 Forecasting with POPs... and Helping Users Understand Them

Tuesday, 14 January 2020: 2:00 PM
204AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Gannon M. Medwick, WECT, Wilmington, NC

Forecasting with POPs... and Helping Users Understand Them

Gannon M. Medwick, Chief Meteorologist, WECT-TV, Wilmington, NC

Rain chances are the most common forecast item I've been asked about in my 15-year broadcast meteorology career, so I built this table to help my viewers visualize them with elements they're used to seeing in a weather report: radar maps. (attached figure)

Thousands of shares and retweets and comments later, I am heartened to see how this graphic seems to have a) promoted a greater understanding of weather statistics in the layperson b) inspired other meteorologists to explain their use of POPs to their consumers and c) generated deep conversation among meteorologists regarding the practice of forecasting and communicating with POPs.

With this abstract, I am answering Dr. Shepherd's call to take this conversation to Boston. (attached figure) I hope to share ways I have learned to generate and deliver forecasts using POPs and how I strive to increase my users' understanding of statistics in weather.

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