Putting Short-Term Phenology Forecasts on the Map

An improved understanding of the drivers of seasonal plant and animal activity, combined with advances in seasonal to subseasonal forecast products, is enabling the development of novel phenology forecasts. The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) is a national-scale science and monitoring initiative focused on the timing of seasonal life cycle events to support natural resource decision making and the advancement of science. To effectively support decision-making, the USA-NPN is taking a co-production approach to developing a growing suite of management-relevant short-term phenology forecasts. We begin by building relationships with stakeholders and listening to end-user perspectives to establish a foundation for jointly identifying if and how forecasts may meet user needs. Here we share three examples of USA-NPN phenology forecasts that support a variety of applications. First, we provide national-scale, 6-day forecasts of the arrival of spring, based on indicator plant species. These products are widely used in news outlets to document the early or late onset of spring-season biological activity and have been relevant in contexts ranging from the start of allergy season to the blooming of azaleas for the Masters Golf tournament. Second, our 6-day forecast of apple maggot adult emergence, one of several Pheno Forecasts USA-NPN offers for insect pests, is most relevant in the apple growing regions of the northern United States, where growers use the maps to time pest control. Third, our 1-2 week forecasts of greenup in the invasive plant, Buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare), are used by natural resource managers in Arizona to target pesticide control when the plant is green. While there is no one-size-fits all, we will share what has and has not worked in the process of collaboration and the features of the products that are the most readily used. Looking to the future, we aim to develop longer-lead forecasts, integrate phenology forecasts into risk management and develop collaborations in human health.