Leveraging Community Modeling in NOAA to Advance Operational Environmental Prediction

NOAA and the National Weather Service (NWS) are embarking on a new strategy of community
engagement for developing the environmental prediction systems that provide NWS forecasters
with the best possible guidance. By engaging the broader numerical modeling community, NWS
will leverage the vast modeling expertise that resides therein, since each model developer offers
a unique perspective about modeling challenges and possible solutions.

The goal of this community effort is to evolve the Unified Forecasting System (UFS) towards a
national unified Earth system modeling capability for operations and research, to the mutual
benefit of both. The UFS will function on temporal scales from seasonal to sub-seasonal (S2S)
on the order of months, down to short-term sub-hourly weather analysis and prediction. The
UFS will also work across spatial scales, from global-scale predictions down to high-resolution,
convection-resolving local/regional scales.

UFS governance is based on a commitment by core development partners, informed practices,
and community values. A UFS Steering Committee, comprised of both NOAA and non-NOAA
members, works to provide technical guidance to the Working Groups. A Technical Oversight
Board has been established to provide support for the programmatic elements across the NOAA
Line Offices. A UFS web portal has been developed to keep the community up to date on UFS
activities.

The first instantiation of the UFS will be based on the version of the FV3-based Global Forecast
System (GFSv15) that became operational in June 2019. Future operational implementations of
the UFS include an FV3-based Ensemble Forecast System (GEFSv12) in 2020, FV3-based
versions of standalone regional models replacing the current NAM and RAP/HRRR applications
in 2023, and fully coupled models for subseasonal to seasonal prediction in 2023 as well. A
more detailed vision of implementations at the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) based on
the UFS will be presented at the conference.

The UFS is being developed by NOAA, other federal partners, and the broader research and
academic community to build the best national modeling system possible. The definition of
“community” is important, and not all community efforts will be identical. We are learning from
prior and ongoing community modeling efforts (such as WRF, CESM, WW3, MOM6, etc.) and
are adopting best practices that meet our specific situation. To advance this effort, the
reauthorization of the WRFIA in January 2019 instructs NOAA to establish the Earth Prediction
Innovation Center ( EPIC ) to accelerate community-developed scientific and technological
enhancements into the operational applications for numerical weather prediction (NWP).

NOAA recognizes that the UFS must support the needs of both operations and research.
Without that linkage, the incentives will not be there for the research community to help make
improvements that will benefit operational predictions, nor will operational innovations feed back
into the models used for research. Building a community model involves both give and take from
the operational and research sides. Lessons-learned demonstrate that the community will
expect sufficient training, full support (including help desk), and vetting of scientific advances
that support evidence-based decisions.

EMC is excited at the prospect of enhanced collaborations in R&D and leveraging the modeling
expertise in the numerical modeling community to improve NOAA guidance, forecasts, and
other products and services. Better predictions can come from ensembles of model runs, and
better models can come from the assembled intellectual might of the entire modeling
community.