USAF Weather Modeling: Status Update and Future Plans for New and Enhanced Model Capabilities

The US Air Force (USAF) currently runs a series of legacy regional windows using the Weather Research & Forecast (WRF) model, a capability that was developed in partnership with the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The majority of the USAF model product line has been migrated to be populated by data from the USAF’s Global Air-Land Weather Exploitation Model (GALWEM), a version of the UK Met Office’s Unified Model (UM). This presentation will cover a status update of WRF and GALWEM models and other model capabilities, followed by a review of a strategy for future model development and enhancement initiatives. The rationale for model improvements called for by the strategy include improved weather modeling capabilities needed to meet the demands of the potential future conflict with a peer competitor; striving to meet challenges and opportunities associated with evolving science and technology capabilities such as cloud computing, the looming explosion of small satellites and commercial data; and machine learning opportunities made possible with greater data volumes and next-generation high-performance computing. The USAF modeling strategy will be described in terms of major decisions and several Lines of Effort that will be explored and refined, which in turn will lay the foundation for USAF Weather modeling over the next 5-10 years and beyond.