Friday, 3 May 2002: 12:00 PM
Implementation of a coupled hurricane-land surface prediction system for improving hurricane prediction during landfall (Formerly Paper P1.10)
Hurricane-land surface interaction is a
little investigated topic in hurricane landfall.
Currently, a slab land surface model is coupled with
the operational GFDL hurricane prediction system.
This land surface model only predicts land surface temperature
with other land conditions, such as the land moisture and heat capacity,
fixed. The use of fixed land moisture and heat capacity may also
cause the land surface temperature prediction significantly
biased where the changes of these conditions are large. For an example,
rainfall under the storm core may result in large changes of land
surface water availability and albedo. In addition, the current GFDL
prediction system uses the land surface water availability
derived from a surface vegetation dataset which is fixed in time,
while in reality it is largely dependent of the precipitation
which has large temporal and spatial variabilities.
These deficiencies of the operational hurricane system
may limit the predictive skills of the current GFDL
prediction system for landfalling hurricanes.
The NOAH land surface model is a comprehensive land surface model and
is currently coupled with the global (AVN) and meso-scale (Eta)
prediction systems at NOAA/NCEP.
The operational hurricane prediction
system will be coupled with the NOAH land surface
model. The implementation of this coupled system
will lead to better representation of surface heat exchanges over
land surface and enable the hurricane system to use the
more accurate initial land surface conditions from the Eta assimilation.
Preliminary results on hurricane-land surface interaction
from both sensitivity experiments and real case
simulations will be reported.
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