25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

SUN 28 APRIL

Conference Registration

MON 29 APRIL

Conference Registration continues through Friday, 3 May

Introduction. Harry H. Hendon, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia

Presentation of Banner I. Miller Award. Christopher Landsea, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL

Opening Remarks. Max Mayfield, NOAA/NHC, Miami, FL

1

Seasonal to Interannual Prediction and Predictability I

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Max Mayfield, NOAA/NHC

Papers:

9:30 AM

1.1

Precursor Global Climate Influences on the Probability of US Landfalling Hurricanes

William M. Gray, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO

Poster PDF (1.7 MB)

9:50 AM

1.2

Leading Tropical Climate Modes Associated with Interannual and Multi-decadal Variations in Seasonal North Atlantic Hurricane Activity

Gerald D. Bell, NOAA/NWS, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Chelliah

10:10 AM

1.3

Prediction of floods in the Bangladeshi monsoon delta

Peter J. Webster, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and R. Grossman, T. Hopson, T. N. Palmer, and D. L. T. Anderson

10:30 AM

1.4

Tropical cyclones and climate

Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA

Poster PDF (60.2 kB)

Poster Session 1

Tropical Cyclones, Large-scale Dynamics and Convection

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Papers:

P1.1

Regional damage assessment of U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones with a focus on North Carolina

P1.2

Re-Analysis of the Chesapeake-Potomac Hurricane of August 22–23, 1933

Hugh D. Cobb III, NOAA/NWS/TPC, Miami, FL

P1.3

Paper moved to Session 8A, new paper number 8A.1A

P1.3A

Surface observations of landfalling hurricanes along the United States Gulf and Atlantic coastline (Formerly Paper 8A.1)

Gary D. Skwira, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and R. E. Peterson, D. A. Smith, C. -. B. Chang, and A. L. Doggett

P1.4

Anomalous Intensification of the Remnants Tropical Storm Allison over land

Kwan-yin Kong, City College of New York, New York, NY

P1.5

Inland secondary rainfall maxima patterns associated with tropical cyclones affecting North Carolina

Joel W. Cline, NOAA/NWS, Raleigh, NC

P1.6

A Coastal Internal Boundary Layer within a Tropical Cyclone

J. Rob Howard, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and J. L. Schroeder

Poster PDF (109.9 kB)

P1.7

Inland tropical cyclone wind forecasts for peninsular Florida

Scott M. Spratt, NOAA/NWS, Melbourne, FL; and R. F. Morales Jr.

P1.8

Orographic Influences on Rainfall and Track Associated with the Passage of Tropical Cyclones

Yuh-Lang Lin, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and D. B. Ensley, S. Chiao, C. M. Hill, and C. Y. Huang

Poster PDF (68.5 kB)

P1.9

Aspects of the Tropical Cyclone Program of NOAA/NESDIS

Michael A. Turk, NOAA/NESDIS, Washington, DC; and S. J. Kusselson

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/NWAOct2001a.ppt

Poster PDF (64.8 kB)

P1.10

Paper Moved to Session 17C, New Paper Number 17C.5A

P1.11

Typhoon track prediction using a barotropic global-DFS-spectral model

P1.12

The Impact of Dropsonde Data on Forecasts of Hurricane Debby by the Met Office Global Model

Julian T. Heming, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and X. Qu

P1.13

How the NCEP tropical cyclone tracker works

Timothy P. Marchok, SAIC at NCEP/GFDL, Princeton, NJ

Poster PDF (139.3 kB)

P1.14

Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting

Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and M. Lonfat, J. E. Tenerelli, R. F. Rogers, and F. M. Horsfall

P1.15

Modeliong Track Deflection For Tropical Cyclones Passing Over a Mesoscale Mountain and its Potential Application to Track Prediction

Yuh-Lang Lin, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and N. C. Witcraft and S. Y. Chen

Poster PDF (68.0 kB)

P1.16

The application and use of UW-CIMSS specialized satellite products in Tropical analysis

Jamie R. Rhome, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC, Miami, FL; and C. S. Velden

P1.17

An Evaluation of CIMSS and CIRA AMSU Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithms

Julie Demuth, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria, J. A. Knaff, C. Velden, and K. F. Brueske

P1.18

UW-CIMSS Satellite Products: Recent Research and Developments

Christopher S. Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI

Poster PDF (23.3 kB)

P1.19

Paper Moved to Session 2D, New Paper Number 2D.1A

P1.19A

Steering dynamics of hurricanes based on satellite-derived far field winds (Formerly Paper Number 2D.1)

P1.20

Operational uses of satellite products at La Réunion

Anne-Claire Fontan, La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Center, Meteo-France, La Reunion, France

Poster PDF (143.8 kB)

P1.21

Microwave satellite retrievals for tropical cyclone forecasting and research

Chelle L. Gentemann, Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, CA; and D. K. Smith and F. J. Wentz

P1.22

The enhanced role of the polar orbiter constellation in tropical system monitoring in the wake of a geostationary platform failure

Steven D. Miller, NRL, Monterey, CA; and F. J. Turk, T. F. Lee, K. Richardson, and J. D. Hawkins

Poster PDF (486.2 kB)

P1.23

Single-Doppler Radar Estimation of Hurricane and Environmental Winds in the Lower Troposphere

Paul R. Harasti, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Poster PDF (207.8 kB)

P1.24

Examining the Eight-Day Evolution of Upper Level Winds in Hurricane Floyd

John A. Knaff, NOAA/CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and C. S. Velden

Poster PDF (40.1 kB)

P1.25

Additional Insights into Hurricane Gust Factors

John L. Schroeder, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and M. R. Conder and J. R. Howard

Poster PDF (103.4 kB)

P1.26

Operational use of QuikSCAT over tropical cyclones

Roger T. Edson, Anteon Corporation, Univ. of Guam, Mangiliao, Guam; and M. A. Lander, C. E. Cantrell, J. L. Franklin, P. S. Chang, and J. D. Hawkins

Poster PDF (153.6 kB)

P1.27

Simulations of Hurricane Erin (2001) with MM5: sensitivity to microphysics

Greg M. McFarquhar, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and J. Dudhia and H. Zhang

P1.28

A Cyclone phase space Derived from Thermal wind and thermal asymmetry

Robert Hart, Penn State University, University Park, PA

http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/cyclonephase

Poster PDF (315.7 kB)

P1.29

Case Study of an Australian Subtropical Cyclone from March 2001

Paul J. McCrone, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE

Poster PDF (449.1 kB)

P1.30

Limitation of tropical cyclone intensification by vertical shear induced structure changes

P1.31

From Asymmetric Heating to Axisymmetric Intensification

David S. Nolan, Princeton University, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and M. T. Montgomery

Poster PDF (90.5 kB)

P1.32

Western North Pacific "Tropical Cyclogenesis" in an AGCM

Suzana J. Camargo, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, NY; and A. H. Sobel

Poster PDF (57.9 kB)

P1.33

The interaction of a tropical-cyclone-like vortex and a front in a barotropic model

Martin Juckes, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Chilton, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom; and S. C. Jones

Poster PDF (512.3 kB)

P1.34

Sensitivities of modeled tropical cyclones to surface friction and the Corolis Parameter

Winston C. Chao, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and B. Chen and W. K. Tao

Poster PDF (241.2 kB)

P1.35

Use of a one-dimensional ocean mixed-layer model for coupled tropical cyclone simulations

Clark Rowley, NRL, Stennis Space Center, MS

Poster PDF (30.6 kB)

P1.36

A grid sensitivity study for vertical sigma levels in idealized hurricane simulations

F. Carroll Dougherty, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and J. Hayes and S. K. Kimball

Poster PDF (167.5 kB)

P1.37

Precipitation structures observed in CAMEX hurricanes

Daniel J. Cecil, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and G. M. Heymsfield, F. J. LaFontaine, M. G. Bateman, E. J. Zipser, and F. D. Marks Jr.

Poster PDF (161.6 kB)

P1.38

In situ measurements of particle size distributions in Hurricane Humberto

Aaron R. Bansemer, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. J. Heymsfield and P. T. Willis

P1.39

Diagnosing tropical cyclones and deep convection using upper tropospheric inertial stability and cloud-motion wind vectors

John R. Mecikalski, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden

Poster PDF (2.6 MB)

P1.40

Supersaturation in tropical storms measured during CAMEX-3 and CAMEX-4

Robert L. Herman, JPL, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and A. J. Heymsfield, L. Pfister, T. P. Bui, and J. Dean-Day

P1.41

The relationship of tropical cyclone convective intensity to passive microwave observations

Robbie E. Hood, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and F. J. LaFontaine, D. J. Cecil, A. Guillory, G. M. Heymsfield, and R. Blakeslee

P1.42

A mesoscale climate model for the tropics

Edward K. Vizy, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; and B. N. Belcher and K. H. Cook

Poster PDF (119.6 kB)

P1.43

A fifty year history of subtropical cyclones

David M. Roth, Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD

Poster PDF (1.5 MB)

P1.44

A climatology of intense tropical cyclones in the south-west Indian Ocean

Karl Hoarau, Cergy-Pontoise University, Cergy-Pontoise, France; and R. Robert and J. P. Hoarau

P1.45

Spectral retrieval of latent heating profiles From TRMM PR data: Algorithm development with a cloud-resolving model

Shoichi Shige, National Space Development Agency of Japan, Tokyo, Japan; and Y. N. Takayabu, W. -. K. Tao, and D. E. Johnson

Poster PDF (386.1 kB)

P1.46

A Climatology of Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin, 1975-2000

Chris C. Robbins, NOAA/AOML/NHC/TPC, Miami, FL; and S. R. Stewart

P1.47

The ENSO signal in tropical tropospheric temperature

Adam H. Sobel, Columbia University, New York, NY; and I. M. Held and C. S. Bretherton

http://www.columbia.edu/~ahs129/pubs.html

Poster PDF (12.8 kB)

P1.48

Stability of the relationship between regional rainfall in Africa and ENSO

Sylwia Trzaska, CNRS/Univ. de Bourgogne, Dijon, France; and N. Fauchereau, I. Poccard, P. Camberlin, Y. Richard, and N. Philippon

Poster PDF (201.3 kB)

P1.49

Spring to summer contrasted transitions in the West African monsoon

Bernard Fontaine, CNRS/Univ. de Bourgogne, Dijon, France; and N. Philippon, S. Trzaska, C. Frelin, and P. Roucou

Poster PDF (89.2 kB)

P1.50

Large-scale organization of tropical convection in two-dimensional explicit numerical simulations

Wojciech W. Grabowski, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. W. Moncrieff

Poster PDF (2.5 MB)

P1.51

Paper moved to Session 15B, New Paper Number 15B.2A

P1.52

Numerical study of a sahelian synoptic weather system: Initiation and Mature stage of Convection and its interactions with the large scale dynamics

Aida Diongue, CNRM, Toulouse, paris, United Kingdom; and J. P. Lafore, J. L. Redelsperger, and R. Roca

Poster PDF (468.6 kB)

P1.53

Impact of greenhouse warming on the variability of easterly waves, rainfall and convection over West Africa

Arona Diedhiou, LTHE/IRD, Grenoble, France; and J. F. Royer, I. Poccard, and T. Lebel

Poster PDF (129.1 kB)

P1.54

Sensitivities of Cloud and Radiation to Changes in SST over the Tropical Eastern Pacific: Results from Cloud-Resolving Simulations

Donghai Wang, Hampton University, Hampton, VA; and E. Deckter, T. Wong, and B. A. Wielicki

Poster PDF (78.4 kB)

P1.55

A General Theory of Monsoon Regulation in the Context of a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System

Peter J. Webster, PAOS, Univ. Colorado, Boulder, CO; and G. Chirokova, W. Han, and J. Loschnigg

P1.56

Mean water vapor fluxes over the Gulf of California from routine and special radiosonde data

P1.57

Diagnosis and prediction of some extreme rain events over southeast Asia

Noel E. Davidson, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and E. A. Adug, W. A. W. Hassan, P. T. Nguyen, and M. R. Prabowo

Poster PDF (62.0 kB)

P1.58

How much "skill" was there in forecasting the strong 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-2001 La Nina events?

Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. A. Knaff

P1.59

An independent assessment of ENSO-CLIPER seasonal prediction skill 1987–2001

Paul Rockett, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and M. A. Saunders

P1.60

On the correlation of boundary layer wind maximums and vertical velocities associated with an MM5 simulation of supertyphoon Herb (1996)

David B. Radell, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and C. -. C. Wu and C. -. B. Chang

Poster PDF (83.3 kB)

P1.61

Seasonal prediction of sea surface temperature and trade wind anomalies over the tropical north Atlantic and Caribbean Sea

Mark A. Saunders, University College London, London, United Kingdom; and P. Rockett

P1.62

Climatological study of the gulf stream's impact on tropical cyclone intensity

Robert J. Bright, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and L. Xie and L. J. Pietrafesa

Poster PDF (15.7 kB)

P1.63

Exploring the connection of extreme convective events and upper-ocean heat content in the tropical cyclone (Formerly Paper 17C.5)

Paula Ann Hennon, STG, Inc., Asheville, NC

Poster PDF (102.4 kB)

Lunch Break

2A

Seasonal to Interannual Prediction and Predictability II (Parallel with Sessions 2B, 2C, & 2D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: James B. Elsner, Florida State University

Papers:

2:00 PM

2A.1

Seasonal prediction of Atlantic, US and Caribbean landfalling hurricanes

Mark A. Saunders, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and P. Rockett

2:15 PM

2A.2

Seasonal prediction of NW Pacific and Japan landfalling typhoons

Paul Rockett, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and M. A. Saunders

2:30 PM

2A.3

Seasonal forecasting for tropical cyclones affecting Shanghai

Xiaotu Lei, Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai, China

Poster PDF (61.1 kB)

2:45 PM

2A.4

Prediction of August Atlantic basin hurricane activity

Eric Blake, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

Poster PDF (634.9 kB)

3:00 PM

2A.5

Forecasting September Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity at zero and one month lead times

Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

Poster PDF (286.5 kB)

2A.6

Multidecadal-Scale Fluctuations in October Tropical Cyclone Activity for the Atlantic Basin

2B

Convection (Parallel with Sessions 2A, 2C, & 2D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Richard Johnson, Colorado State University

Papers:

2:00 PM

2B.1

Ship radar observations of a developing tropical cyclone in the east Pacific

Robert Cifelli, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and W. A. Petersen, D. J. Boccippio, C. W. Fairall, and S. A. Rutledge

Poster PDF (496.2 kB)

2:15 PM

2B.2

The effects of buoyancy, shear and humidity on convection in the eastern tropical Pacific

Graciela B. Raga, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; and D. J. Raymond and D. Baumgardner

Poster PDF (28.3 kB)

2:30 PM

2B.3

Composite analyses of local influences of tropical convection

Steven C. Sherwood, Yale University, New Haven, CT

2:45 PM

2B.4

Characteristics of Amazonian Rain During Contrasting Wet Season Regimes

Steven A. Rutledge, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and L. D. Carey, R. Cifelli, and W. A. Petersen

Poster PDF (110.7 kB)

3:00 PM

2B.5

Diurnal variation during TOGA COARE

Taotao Qian, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and R. D. Cess

Poster PDF (245.2 kB)

3:15 PM

2B.6

Spectral representation of rain features and diurnal variations observed with TRMM PR over the equatorial area

Yukari N. Takayabu, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

Poster PDF (497.1 kB)

2C

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change (Parallel with Sessions 2A, 2B, and 2D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Greg Holland, Aerosonde Ltd.

Papers:

2:00 PM

2C.1

The use of GOES imagery in statistical hurricane intensity prediction

Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, Ft. Collins, CO; and R. M. Zehr, J. P. Kossin, and J. A. Knaff

2:15 PM

2C.2

The Effects of Vertical Wind Shear as Diagnosed by the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Data on Northeast Pacific Hurricane Intensity

Cynthia K. Palmer, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and G. M. Barnes

Poster PDF (11.1 kB)

2:30 PM

2C.3

Estimating the probability of rapid intensification using the SHIPS model output: Some preliminary results

John Kaplan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. DeMaria

2:45 PM

2C.4

An analysis of the forecast performance of the GFDL model during Debby (2000)

Jamie R. Rhome, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC, Miami, FL; and S. Raman and R. S. Pasch

3:00 PM

2C.5

Hurricane heat potential estimates from monthly versus seasonal temperature and salinity data

Sean R. White, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. M. Mainelli, S. D. Jacob, and L. K. Shay

Poster PDF (166.2 kB)

3:15 PM

2C.6

Forecast skill of a simple coupled hurricane intensity prediction model

Fiona M. Horsfall, NOAA/AOML/NHC, Miami, FL; and K. A. Emanuel

Poster PDF (98.9 kB)

2D

Tropical Cyclone Motion (Parallel with Sessions 2A, 2B, & 2C)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Jeff Halverson, JCET/University of Baltimore

Papers:

2:00 PM

2D.1

Paper Moved to Poster Session P1, New Paper Number P1.19A

2:01 PM

2D.2

Nonlinear motion of a two-layer baroclinic hurricane in shear

Robert W. Jones, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and H. E. Willoughby

2:16 PM

2D.3

Hurricane Risk in Hawaii. Part 1: Steering flow analysis in the central north pacific

Anthony Reynes-Figueroa, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and D. Stevens and S. H. Houston

Poster PDF (4.7 MB)

2:31 PM

2D.4

Control Parameters for Track Continuity and Deflection Associated with Tropical Cyclones over a Mesoscale Mountain

Yuh-Lang Lin, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and S. Y. Chen and C. M. Hill

Poster PDF (62.1 kB)

2:46 PM

2D.5

Contribution to the Track and Intensity Forecasts of Hurricanes for the Physical and Dynamical Components using a Residue-Free Budget and the FSUGSM

Adam J. O'Shay, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. N. Krishnamurti

3:01 PM

2D.1a

Satellite Applications for Tropical Wave/Tropical Cyclone Tracking (Formerly Paper P1.19)

Jason P. Dunion, NOAA/AOML/HRD and Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and C. S. Velden

Coffee Break

3A

Seasonal to Interannual Prediction and Predictability III (Parallel with Sessions 3B, 3C, & 3D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Stanley Goldenberg, NOAA/AOML/HRD

Papers:

4:00 PM

3A.1

A look at global tropical cyclone activity with respect to the Atlantic change-point year of 1995

Mark A. Lander, University of Guam, Mangilao, Guam

Poster PDF (46.0 kB)

4:15 PM

3A.2

Interannual variations in tropical cyclone tracks

James B. Elsner, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

http://garnet.acns.fsu.edu/~jelsner/www/research.html

Poster PDF (16.2 kB)

4:30 PM

3A.3

Seasonal Environmental Conditions Related to Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Northeast Pacific Basin

Jennifer M. Collins, University College London, London, UK and Plymouth State College, Plymouth, NH; and I. M. Mason

Poster PDF (809.1 kB)

4:45 PM

3A.4

Variability of Tropical Storms in AGCMS

Suzana J. Camargo, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, NY; and S. E. Zebiak

Poster PDF (15.8 kB)

5:00 PM

3A.5

Performance of the NCEP Seasonal Forecast Model over the Atlantic tropical cyclone prone region

Wilbur Y. Chen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Spring, MD

Poster PDF (670.6 kB)

5:15 PM

3A.6

Tropical Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts Using Multi-Model Superensemble Technique

W. T. Yun, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. N. Krishnamurti

http://

Poster PDF (102.1 kB)

3B

Convection II (Parallel with Sessions 3A, 3C, & 3D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Steven C. Sherwood, Yale University

Papers:

4:00 PM

3B.1

THE IMPACT OF TAIWAN TOPOGRAPHY ON TYPHOON NARI AS LANDFALLING FROM THE HIGH RESOLUTION SIMULATION

Jing-Shan Hong, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan; and T. C. Yeh and D. S. Chen

Poster PDF (666.3 kB)

4:15 PM

3B.2

Satellite-Based Passive and Active Microwave Remote Sensing of Precipitation and Latent Heating Distributions in the Tropics

William S. Olson, JCET/University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and S. Yang, Z. S. Haddad, C. D. Kummerow, W. K. Tao, and J. J. Wang

4:30 PM

3B.3

Mesoscale cloud analysis using METEOSAT data: application to the JET2000 experiment

Mathieu Nuret, Meteo-France/CNRM, Toulouse, France; and F. Hdidou, V. Gouget, and J. P. Lafore

Poster PDF (3.4 MB)

4:45 PM

3B.4

Cloud-Resolving Model Simulation of Large Ensemble of Cloud Systems from EOS Satellite Observations and Comparison with the ECMWF Cloud Model

Kuan-Man Xu, NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA; and T. Wong, A. Cheng, Z. Eitzen, and B. A. Wielicki

5:00 PM

3B.5

A Numerical Model Study of Formation of Congestus Clouds in Vicinity of MCSs

Marja H. Bister, Academy of Finland and Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; and B. E. Mapes

5:15 PM

3B.6

A Parameterization For Mixing in moist turbulent Thermals

Stefan Tulich, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

Poster PDF (51.6 kB)

3C

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change II (Parallel with Sessions 3A, 3B, & 3D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS

Papers:

4:00 PM

3C.1

MPI, shear and rapid intensification of hurricanes

Jay S. Hobgood, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH

4:15 PM

3C.2

Intensity change and eyewall replacement in Hurricane Floyd (1999)

Joseph E. Tenerelli, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen

Poster PDF (691.9 kB)

4:30 PM

3C.3

Inhibiting factors to tropical cyclone intensification

Greg J. Holland, Aerosonde Ltd., Notting Hill, Vic., Australia; and Y. Wang

4:45 PM

3C.4

Vertical wind shear characteristics with Atlantic hurricanes during 2001

Raymond M. Zehr, NOAA/NESDIS, Ft. Collins, CO

5:00 PM

3C.5

Environmental Vertical Wind Shear and Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change Utilizing Enhanced Satellite Derived Wind Information

Gregory M. Gallina, Univ. of Wisconsin/CIMSS, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden

Poster PDF (27.7 kB)

5:15 PM

3C.6

Eyewall contraction, breakdown and reformation in landfalling Typhoon (1998)

Kun-Hsuan Chou, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu and Y. Wang

http://

Poster PDF (631.2 kB)

3D

Tropical Cyclone Prediction (Parallel with Sessions 3A, 3B, & 3C)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Lixion A. Avila, NOAA/AOML/NHC/TPC

Papers:

4:00 PM

3D.1

The Advancement of NCEP's Hurricane Prediction System: Present and Future

Naomi Surgi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and H. L. Pan, Q. Liu, W. Shen, and S. Lord

4:15 PM

3D.2

NCEP Global Model Tropical Forecast Upgrades: Model Performance during the 2001 Hurricane Season

Hua-Lu Pan, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and Q. Liu, N. Surgi, and S. Lord

4:30 PM

3D.3

Use of the NCEP Global Ensemble for tropical cyclone track forecasting

Timothy P. Marchok, SAIC at NCEP/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and Z. Toth and Q. Liu

Poster PDF (221.7 kB)

4:45 PM

3D.4

Forecasting tropical cyclogenesis in the NCEP global model

Richard S. Pasch, NOAA/NWS/TPC, Miami, FL; and J. G. Jiing, F. M. Horsfall, H. L. Pan, and N. Surgi

Poster PDF (63.6 kB)

5:00 PM

3D.5

The Met Office 2002 global model upgrade and the expected impact on tropical cyclone forecasts

Julian T. Heming, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and G. Greed

5:15 PM

3D.6

Landfall prediction of hurricanes/typhoons from the FSU superensemble

T. N. Krishnamurti, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar, L. Stefanova, and J. Wood

TUE 30 APRIL

4B

Convection III (Parallel with Sessions 4A, 4C, & 4D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Adam H. Sobel, Columbia University

Papers:

8:30 AM

4B.1

Impacts of humidity-corrected sonde data on TOGA COARE analyses

Paul E. Ciesielski, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. H. Johnson and J. Wang

Poster PDF (141.8 kB)

8:45 AM

4B.2

Spurious divergence within objective analyses with application to TOGA COARE heat and moisture budgets

Patrick T. Haertel, Colorado State University, Ft Collins, CO

http://

Poster PDF (61.8 kB)

9:00 AM

4B.3

Effects of random sampling errors on TOGA-COARE atmospheric budgets

Richard H. Johnson, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and P. E. Ciesielski and B. E. Mapes

Poster PDF (197.3 kB)

9:15 AM

4B.4

Convective momentum transport observed during the TOGA COARE IOP: Implications for parameterization

Wen-wen Tung, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and M. Yanai

Poster PDF (165.8 kB)

9:30 AM

4B.5

Evaluation and impact study of convective momentum parameterization using 3D cloud-resolving model and general circulation model

Xiaoqing Wu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. W. Moncrieff, X. Z. Liang, and G. J. Zhang

Poster PDF (290.2 kB)

9:45 AM

4B.6

Single column model test of the parameterization of convective momentum transport by tropical convective systems

Guang J. Zhang, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA

10:00 AM

4B.7

Vertical Transport of momentum within and surrounding isolated cumulus clouds

Paul B. Bogner, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and G. M. Barnes

Poster PDF (502.2 kB)

10:15 AM

4B.8

Fluctuations in an ensemble of cumulus clouds

Brenda G. Cohen, Univ. of Reading, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom; and G. C. Craig

4C

HL2001/CAMEX-4

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Russ Elsberry, NPS

Papers:

8:30 AM

4C.1

Overview of the fourth Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-4)

Robbie E. Hood, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and R. Kakar, E. Zipser, T. N. Krishnamurti, and F. D. Marks Jr.

8:45 AM

4C.2

Structure of the highly sheared tropical storm chantal during camex-4

Gerald M. Heymsfield, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. B. Halverson, M. L. Black, F. D. Marks Jr., E. J. Zipser, L. Tian, L. Belcher, P. Bui, and E. Im

9:00 AM

4C.3

Thermal structure of Hurricane Erin's (2001) Core Using Dropsonde Data from 68,000 Feet and Comparison with AMSU Satellite Measurements

Jeffrey B. Halverson, Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and T. Hock, H. Cole, J. Simpson, G. M. Heymsfield, H. Pierce, C. Velden, and K. F. Brueske

9:15 AM

4C.4

A multiple aircraft experiment in Hurricane Humberto (2001). Part I: Wind fields

Steven E. Feuer, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. F. Gamache, M. L. Black, F. D. Marks Jr., and J. B. Halverson

9:30 AM

4C.5

A multiple aircraft experiment in Hurricane Humberto (2001): Part 2, Precipitation fields

Edward J. Zipser, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and G. M. Heymsfield, D. J. Cecil, R. Blakeslee, S. Durden, J. F. Gamache, and F. D. Marks Jr.

9:45 AM

4C.6

Observations of hurricane boundary layer structure and air-sea interaction processes from HAL 2001/ CAMEX4 (NASA) as a prelude to HAL2002/ CBLAST (ONR)

Peter G. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and F. D. Marks Jr., E. W. Uhlhorn, D. McLaughlin, X. Zhang, and E. J. Walsh

10:00 AM

4C.7

Rain rate measurements in Hurricane Humberto using the airborne NASA Scanning Radar Altimeter

Edward J. Walsh, NASA/GSFC, Wallops Island, VA; and C. W. Wright, D. Vandemark, L. F. Bliven, E. W. Uhlhorn, P. G. Black, and F. D. Marks Jr.

Poster PDF (207.8 kB)

10:15 AM

4C.8

Airborne lidar measurements of water vapor profiles in the hurricane environment

Richard A. Ferrare, NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA; and E. V. Browell, S. Ismail, S. Kooi, L. H. Brasseur, A. Notari, L. Petway, M. Clayton, M. J. Mahoney, J. B. Halverson, F. J. Schmidlin, T. N. Krishnamurti, E. Bensman, V. Brackett, and R. Herman

Poster PDF (284.5 kB)

4D

Tropical Cyclone Prediction II (Parallel with Sessions 4A, 4B, & 4C)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Naomi Surgi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP

Papers:

8:30 AM

4D.1

Track Forecasting of 2001 Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Using a Kilo-Member Ensemble

Jonathan L. Vigh, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

http://lamar.colostate.edu/~jvigh/ensembles/

Poster PDF (102.8 kB)

8:45 AM

4D.2

Hurricane track and intensity prediction using a statistical ensemble of numerical models

Harry C. Weber, University of Munich, Munich, Germany

9:00 AM

4D.3

Ensemble prediction of tropical cyclones

K. Puri, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and J. Barkmeijer, N. E. Davidson, and H. C. Weber

9:15 AM

4D.4

Ensemble methods applied to hurricane track and intensity forecasting

Mohan K. Ramamurthy, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and B. F. Jewett and H. Liu

Poster PDF (248.8 kB)

9:30 AM

4D.5

ASSIMILATION OF GPS DROPWINDSONDE DATA USING A VICBAR ENSEMBLE

Brian J. Etherton, University of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. D. Aberson

Poster PDF (177.6 kB)

9:45 AM

4D.6

Tropical cyclone track predictability limits

Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL

Poster PDF (60.7 kB)

10:00 AM

4D.7

Assessment of the Potential for Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Formation in the navy Global Models

Ted Dorics, NPS, Monterey, CA; and P. A. Harr and R. L. Elsberry

Poster PDF (91.1 kB)

10:15 AM

4D.8

Prospects for operational tropical cyclogenesis forecasting

Christopher C. Hennon, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH

Poster PDF (179.9 kB)

4A

Seasonal to Interannual Prediction and Predictability IV (Parallel with Sessions 4B, 4C, & 4D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: John L. McBride, BMRC

Papers:

9:00 AM

4A.1

Decadal Variations of Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Central North Pacific

Pao-Shin Chu, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI

9:15 AM

4A.2

Recurvature and landfall of Atlantic hurricanes and their relationship to the North Atlantic Oscillation

Brian F. Owens, Willis Limited, London, FL, United Kingdom

Poster PDF (201.1 kB)

9:30 AM

4A.3

How strong El Nino affect tropical storm activity in the western North Pacific

Bin Wang, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and J. C. L. Chan

9:45 AM

4A.4

West African monsoon and SST variability. A numerical study of the respective roles of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans

Sylwia Trzaska, CNRS/Universite de Bourgogne, Dijon, France; and B. Fontaine and S. Janicot

Poster PDF (494.8 kB)

10:00 AM

4A.5

Relationships between deep soil wetness, monsoon dynamics and rainfall, and their potential use for improving seasonal forecasting in West Africa

Nathalie Philippon, CNRS/Universite de Bourgogne, Dijon, France; and B. Fontaine and V. Moron

Poster PDF (58.7 kB)

10:15 AM

4A.6

Why does Climate conflict with Development over the Tropical regions of Eastern Africa? A case study for Ethiopia

Diriba Korecha, National Meteorological Services Agency of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Coffee Break

5A

Monsoons I (Parallel with Sessions 5B, 5C & 5D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: John T. Fasullo, PAOS, University of Colorado

Papers:

11:00 AM

5A.1

Factors contributing to the onset of the Australian summer monsoon

Chih-wen Hung, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and M. Yanai

http://www.atmos.ucla.edu/~tropics/AMS/5A1.pdf

Poster PDF (1.0 MB)

11:15 AM

5A.2

Interhemispheric atmospheric mass exchange associated with the onset of an active phase of the Australian summer monsoon

Marco L. Carrera, McGill University, Montreal, PQ, Canada; and J. R. Gyakum

Poster PDF (162.0 kB)

11:30 AM

5A.3

Symmetry and asymmetry of the Asian and Australian summer monsoons

Michio Yanai, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and X. Liu and C. W. Hung

http://www.atmos.ucla.edu/~tropics/AMS/5A3.pdf

Poster PDF (658.7 kB)

11:45 AM

5A.4

Intercontinental Teleconnection: Interactions between the African and South America Monsoon Systems

Kerry H. Cook, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; and J. S. Hsieh

12:00 PM

5A.5

Relationships between the maritime continent heat source and the El Nino Southern Oscillation phenomenon

John L. McBride, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; and M. R. Haylock and N. Nicholls

Poster PDF (208.5 kB)

12:15 PM

5A.6

Influence of Coastal Upwelling on the Indian Ocean

Larissa E. Back, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY

Poster PDF (396.9 kB)

5B

Convection IV (Parallel with Sessions 5A, 5C, & 5D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Kuan-Man Xu, NASA/LRC

Papers:

11:00 AM

5B.1

A new approach to the cumulus parameterization

Yoshio Kurihara, Frontier Research System for Global Change, Yokohama, Japan

11:15 AM

5B.2

Towards a wavelet-based convective representation for GCM: rationales and preliminary results

Jun-Ichi Yano, CNRM,Meteo-France, Toulouse, France; and P. Bechtold, J. L. Redelsperger, and F. Guichard

Poster PDF (3.3 MB)

11:30 AM

5B.3

Characteristics of simulated deep convection in radiative-convective equalibrium over tropical oceans

Xiping Zeng, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond

Poster PDF (88.4 kB)

11:45 AM

5B.4

Resolution dependence of parameterized physics inferred from nonhydrostatic model experiments

Joon-Hee Jung, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and A. Arakawa

12:00 PM

5B.5

Resolution dependence of a tropical squall line

Tomoe Nasuno, Frontier Range System for Global Change, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan; and K. Saito

12:15 PM

5B.6

Initiation of Mesoscale Convective Complexes in Eastern Africa: A precursor to Tropical Cyclogenesis

Christopher M. Hill, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and Y. L. Lin

Poster PDF (179.6 kB)

5C

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change III (Parallel with Sessions 5A, 5B, & 5D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Cynthia Palmer, University Of Hawaii

Papers:

11:00 AM

5C.1

Symmetric and asymmetric contributions to the intensification of Hurricane Opal in a GFDL model forecast

J. Dominique Möller, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and L. J. Shapiro

11:15 AM

5C.2

Influence of atmospheric asymmetries on the intensification of Hurricane Opal: Piecewise PV inversion diagnosis of a GFDL model forecast

Lloyd J. Shapiro, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and J. D. Möller

11:30 AM

5C.3

On the intensification and recurvature of tropical cyclone Tracy (1974)

Noel E. Davidson, CAWCR, Melbourne, Vic., Australia

Poster PDF (93.2 kB)

11:45 AM

5C.4

Comparison of Hurricane intensity as realized in an axisymmetric model with MPI theory

John Persing, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery

Poster PDF (582.5 kB)

12:00 PM

5C.5

An application of Atmospheric Thermodynamics to Tropical Cyclone/Hurricane Activity

R. Suseela Reddy, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and P. R. Remata and R. L. Miller

5C.6

The tropical cyclone-jet streak interaction: A numerical study of the role of pre-existing outflow channels in tropical cyclone intensification

5D

Tropical Cyclone Prediction III (Parallel with Sessions 5A, 5B, & 5C)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Brian Etherthon, University of Miami

Papers:

11:00 AM

5D.1

Observing-systems simulation experiments for tropical cyclone initialization based on four-dimensional variational data assimilation

Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and K. H. Chou, Y. H. Kuo, and W. P. Huang

Poster PDF (406.2 kB)

11:15 AM

5D.2

Analysis and Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones in the ECMWF 40-year Reanalysis (ERA-40)

Michael Fiorino, LLNL, Livermore, CA

Poster PDF (565.3 kB)

11:30 AM

5D.3

4-D Variational assimilation of QuikScat winds into the MM5 Model

Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen, J. E. Tenerelli, and R. Foster

11:45 AM

5D.4

Hurricane Forecasting using Adaptive Unstructured Grids

David P. Bacon, SAIC, McLean, VA; and N. N. Ahmad, Z. Boybeyi, S. G. Gopalakrishnan, M. S. Hall, P. C. S. Lee Sr., and R. A. Sarma

http://vortex.atgteam.com

Poster PDF (1.0 MB)

12:00 PM

5D.5

Hurricane initialization using reconnaissance data in GFDL hurricane forecast model

Qingfu Liu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and S. J. Lord, N. Surgi, H. L. Pan, and F. D. Marks Jr.

Poster PDF (151.1 kB)

12:15 PM

5D.6

Short-term high-resolution prediction of tropical cyclones in the northwest Pacific using the TCM-90 dataset

Xiaqiong Zhou, Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and L. Qi, L. M. Leslie, and J. C. L. Chan

Lunch Break

6A

Monsoons II (Parallel with Sessions 6B, 6C, and 6D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Kerry H. Cook, Cornell University

Papers:

2:00 PM

6A.1

Development and breakdown of reverse monsoon troughs in the western Pacific

Kelly Lombardo, SUNY, Albany, NY

Poster PDF (312.4 kB)

2:15 PM

6A.2

a Hydrological definition of Indian Monsoon onset and withdrawl

John T. Fasullo, PAOS, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster

Poster PDF (17.1 kB)

2:30 PM

6A.3

Connections Between the African, Indian rainfall regimes

Edward K. Vizy, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY

Poster PDF (265.0 kB)

2:45 PM

6A.4

West African Monsoon project

Jean-Luc Redelsperger, CNRM,CNRS and Meteo-France, Toulouse, France

Poster PDF (21.1 kB)

3:00 PM

6A.5

Extra-tropical dry air intrusions in the West African Moonson region

Rémy Roca, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Palaiseau, France; and C. Piriou, J. P. Lafore, and J. L. Redelsperger

Poster PDF (186.6 kB)

3:15 PM

6A.6

The role of the intra-seasonal time scale variability in the West African monsoon

Serge Janicot, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Palaiseau, France; and B. Sultan

Poster PDF (543.1 kB)

6B

Large-scale dynamics and convection (Parallel with Sessions 6A, 6C, and 6D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Christopher S. Bretherton, University of Washington

Papers:

2:00 PM

6B.1

Comparison of the characteristics of convection in the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans

Robert A. Houze Jr., Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and P. J. Webster

2:15 PM

6B.2

Cirrus generation and maintenance in the Tropical Western Pacific

James H. Mather, PNNL, Richland, WA; and J. M. Comstock and T. P. Ackerman

2:30 PM

6B.3

Convective Clouds over the Bay of Bengal

Paquita Zuidema, NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO

http://www.etl.noaa.gov/~pzuidema/jasmine.pdf

Poster PDF (277.0 kB)

2:45 PM

6B.4

Deformation of Large Cloud Disturbance over the Western Tropical Pacific

Atsushi Hamada, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan; and N. Nishi and H. Kida

Poster PDF (538.1 kB)

3:00 PM

6B.5

Dynamics of Northwest Pacific tropical disturbances

Hung-Chi Kuo, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. -. P. Chang and R. T. Williams

Poster PDF (207.6 kB)

3:15 PM

6B.6

Time dependent energetics budget for quasi-stationary conectively coupled modes

Robert A. Tomas, PAOS, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster

Poster PDF (113.1 kB)

6C

Tropical Cyclone Simulation: Dynamics I (Parallel with Sessions 6A, 6B, and 6D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Noel Davidson, BOM

Papers:

6C.1

Topographic effect on a barotropic cyclone encountering a mountain: laboratory experiment and numerical simulation

2:15 PM

6C.2

On the interaction of binary typhoon systems with MM5

Ling-Feng Hsiao, Chinese Culture University, Taipei, Taiwan; and K. Y. Liu

Poster PDF (40.0 kB)

2:30 PM

6C.3

A case study of tropical cyclone merger

Wayne H. Schubert, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and B. D. McNoldy, R. Prieto, J. L. Vigh, S. R. Fulton, and R. M. Zehr

Poster PDF (329.6 kB)

2:45 PM

6C.4

Low-level structures of environments bearing mesocyclones with tornadoes spawned by Tropical Cyclone (TC) Earl (1998) in Florida as revealed by MM5 integrations

Daniel R. Gallagher, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO

Poster PDF (125.4 kB)

3:00 PM

6C.5

Precipitation and landmass interaction during Hurricane Georges (1998) landfall at Puerto Rico

Craig M. Orndorff, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen and J. E. Tenerelli

Poster PDF (174.6 kB)

3:15 PM

6C.6

A simple model of the hurricane boundary layer

Roger K. Smith, University of Munich, Munich, Germany

6D

Tropical Cyclone Prediction IV (Parallel with Sessions 6A, 6B, and 6D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Richard J. Pasch, NOAA/AOML/NHC/TPC

Papers:

2:00 PM

6D.1

Accuracy of United States tropical cyclone landfall forecasts in the Atlantic basin 1976–2001

Mark D. Powell, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and S. Aberson

Poster PDF (41.9 kB)

2:15 PM

6D.2

Trends in track forecasting for tropical cyclones threatening the United States, 1970–2001

James L. Franklin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC, Miami, FL; and C. J. McAdie and M. B. Lawrence

2:30 PM

6D.3

Analysis of the first operational-test of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Aid at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center during the 2000 AND 2001 tropical cyclone season

Christopher E. Cantrell, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Pearl Harbor, HI; and R. A. Jeffries

2:45 PM

6D.4

intense very-late-season Caribbean Hurricanes

Richard G. Henning, 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, Keesler AFB, MS

3:00 PM

6D.5

The Performance and the Recent Improvement of Typhoon Forecast System of the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan

Der-Song Chen, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan; and T. C. Yeh and K. -. N. Huang

Poster PDF (12.2 kB)

6D.6

Tropical Cyclone Wave Height Forecast Comparison using the GFDL/NWW3 Model vs the NWW3 Model

Coffee Break

7B

Large-Scale Dynamics and Convection II (Parallel with Sessions 7C and 7D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Brian E. Mapes, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado

Papers:

4:00 PM

7B.1

Threshold Sea Surface Temperature For Initiation of Convection

J. David Neelin, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and H. Su and J. E. Meyerson

4:15 PM

7B.2

Sensitivity of Tropical Tropospheric Temperature to Sea Surface Temperature Forcing

Hui Su, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin and J. E. Meyerson

4:30 PM

7B.3

LARGE-SCALE waves interacting with deep convection in idealized mesoscale model simulations

Adam H. Sobel, Columbia University, New York, NY; and C. S. Bretherton

http://www.columbia.edu/~ahs129/pubs.html

Poster PDF (26.0 kB)

4:45 PM

7B.4

A simple model of a convectively-coupled Walker circulation using the Weak Temperature Gradient approximation

Christopher S. Bretherton, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. H. Sobel and M. Peters

5:00 PM

7B.5

A two-column model USING THE WEAK TEMPERATURE GRADIENT APPROXIMATION

Daniel A. Shaevitz, Columbia University, New York, NY; and A. H. Sobel

http://www.columbia.edu/~ahs129/pubs.html

Poster PDF (12.6 kB)

5:15 PM

7B.6

An explicit numerical study of the intertropical convergence zone in an aqua-planet with uniform sea surface temperature

Changhai Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. W. Moncrieff

7C

Tropical Cyclones: Vertical Shear (Parallel with Sessions 7B and 7D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Wayne Schubert, Colorado State University

Papers:

4:00 PM

7C.1

Tropical Cyclones in Complex Vertical Shears

William M. Frank, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and E. A. Ritchie

Poster PDF (134.4 kB)

4:15 PM

7C.2

Understanding the dynamics of vertically sheared hurricanes

Paul D. Reasor, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. T. Montgomery

Poster PDF (58.5 kB)

4:30 PM

7C.3

The role of vertical shear in determining the distribution of accumulated rainfall in high-resolution numerical simulations of tropical cyclones

Robert F. Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and S. Chen, J. E. Tenerelli, and H. Willoughby

4:45 PM

7C.4

The relationship between storm motion, vertical wind shear and convective asymmetries in tropical cyclones

Kristen L. Corbosiero, SUNY, Albany, NY

5:00 PM

7C.5

The development of asymmetric vertical motion in idealised tropical cyclones under the influence of vertical shear

Sarah C. Jones, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and E. A. Ritchie

Poster PDF (467.2 kB)

5:15 PM

7C.6

High-resolution simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998): Storm structure and evolution

Scott A. Braun, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and Z. X. Pu

7D

Tropical Cyclone Prediction V (Parallel with Session 7B and 7C)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML/HRD

Papers:

4:00 PM

7D.1

Typhoon rainfall over Taiwan area: The empirical function modes and their applications on the typhoon rainfall forecast

Tien-Chiang Yeh, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan

Poster PDF (40.3 kB)

4:15 PM

7D.2

Development of a Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Climatology and Persistence (R-CLIPER) Model

Frank D. Marks Jr., NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and G. Kappler and M. DeMaria

Poster PDF (153.0 kB)

4:30 PM

7D.3

Performance of the Emanuel cumulus parameterization scheme in NOGAPS: Impact of recent modifications

Melinda S. Peng, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. A. Ridout and T. F. Hogan

Poster PDF (52.2 kB)

4:45 PM

7D.4

Variability of Hurricane Wind and Wave Prediction due to Track Projections

Hans C. Graber, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and R. E. Jensen, V. J. Cardone, J. L. Guiney, and M. D. Powell

5:00 PM

7D.5

Beta test of a prototype dynamical model track prediction evaluation system model for the Atlantic

Mark A. Boothe, NPS, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry and L. L. Salvador

Poster PDF (848.6 kB)

5:15 PM

7D.6

Prediction of tropical cyclone wind structure in Navy operational mesoscale model

Chi-Sann E. Liou, NRL, Monterey, CA

Panel Discussion 1

A Proposal for an international field experiment in West Africa and Atlantic Ocean 2004/2005

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Moderator: Chris Thorncroft, University at Albany, SUNY

Panelists: Jean Luc Redelsperger, CNRM; Mitch Moncrieff, UCAR; Frank Roux, Laboratoire d'Aerologie; Frank Marks, NOAA/AOML/HRD; Arona Diehdiou, LTHE

WED 1 MAY

8A

Tropical Cyclones at Landfall (Parallel with Session 8B, 8C, and 8D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Frank Marks, NOAA/AOML/HRD

Papers:

8:30 AM

8A.1

Paper moved to Poster Session P1, New Paper Number P1.3A

8:45 AM

8A.2

Profiler, radar and electric field observations of the landfall of tropical storm Gabrielle

Kevin Knupp, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. Walters

9:00 AM

8A.3

TTU WEMITE: A summary of data collected from landfalling tropical cyclones during 2000-2001

J. Rob Howard, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and J. L. Schroeder, G. D. Skwira, A. L. Doggett, and A. C. Sims

9:15 AM

8A.4

Evolution of the coastal windfield during the landfall of Hurricane Floyd (1999)

Carolina E. Mayrinck, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and P. P. Dodge, F. D. Marks Jr., S. H. Houston, and J. F. Gamache

Poster PDF (454.2 kB)

9:30 AM

8A.5

An evaluation of the precipitation distribution in landfalling tropical cyclones

Eyad H. Atallah, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY

Poster PDF (2.8 MB)

9:45 AM

8A.6

WSR-88D Observations of Boundary Layer Rolls during Hurricane Landfall

Ian J. Morrison, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and F. D. Marks Jr. and S. Businger

Poster PDF (837.8 kB)

10:00 AM

8A.7

Asymmetric structure of a landfalling hurricane

M. K. Yau, McGill University, Montreal, Canada; and Y. Chen

Poster PDF (158.6 kB)

10:15 AM

8A.8

Hurricanes at Landfall: Evolution of Structure and Isotope Ratios

Stanley D. Gedzelman, City College of New York, New York, NY; and J. R. Lawrence

10:30 AM

8A.1A

The impact of landfall on tropical cyclone boundary layer winds (Formerly Paper P1.3)

Jeffrey D. Kepert, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia

Poster PDF (52.8 kB)

8C

Tropical Cyclogenesis (Parallel with Sessions 8A, 8B, and 8D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Paul Reasor, NOAA/AOML/HRD

Papers:

8:30 AM

8C.1

A three-dimensional cloud-resolving numerical study of tropical cyclogenesis

Michael T. Montgomery, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. E. Nicholls and T. A. Cram

8:45 AM

8C.2

A Cloud-Resolving Regional Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Formation

Jordan G. Powers, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis

9:00 AM

8C.3

Intense tropical cyclogenesis over the northwest Australian Region in 1998/1999: causal factors and case studies

Milton S. Speer, BOM, Sydney, Australia; and L. M. Leslie and R. F. Abbey Jr.

9:15 AM

8C.4

Numerical simulations of the formation of Typhoon Robyn (1993)

Kevin K. W. Cheung, NPS, Monterey, CA

Poster PDF (373.9 kB)

9:30 AM

8C.5

The Genesis of East Pacific Tropical Storm Lorena

Joseph A. Zehnder, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ; and D. J. Raymond

9:45 AM

8C.6

Tropical cyclone formation under the influence of low-level wind surges in the western north Pacific

Cheng-shang Lee, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan

10:00 AM

8C.7

Contrasting Influences of the Saharan Air Layer on Tropical Cyclogenesis over the Eastern Atlantic

V. Mohan Karyampudi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SAIC, Camp Springs, MD; and H. Pierce

8C.8

Possible effects of Sahara dust on tropical cyclone development using spectral microphysics in the GFDL axisymmetric TC model

8D

Tropical Cyclone Simulation: Dynamics II (Parallel with Sessions 8A, 8B, and 8D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Sarah Jones, University of Munich

Papers:

8:30 AM

8D.1

Potential vorticity mixing in shallow-water vortices

Scott R. Fulton, Clarkson University, Potsdam, NY; and W. H. Schubert

Poster PDF (78.6 kB)

8:45 AM

8D.2

Wave activity diagnostics in a simulated hurricane

Yongsheng Chen, McGill Univ., Montreal, PQ, Canada; and G. Brunet and M. K. Yau

Poster PDF (188.9 kB)

9:00 AM

8D.3

Investigating convective elements in a high resolution simulation of Hurricane Opal(1995)

Glen Romine, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and R. Wilhelmson

http://pampa.ncsa.uiuc.edu/~romine/opal.html

Poster PDF (240.0 kB)

9:15 AM

8D.4

The Role of Horizontal Eddy Momentum Fluxes on Hurricane Core Structures

Young C. Kwon, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and W. M. Frank

Poster PDF (40.4 kB)

9:30 AM

8D.5

The Implications of Low Potential Vorticity in the Tropical Cyclone Outflow Layer

Kristopher Bedka, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli

9:45 AM

8D.6

Mechanisms for the Generation of Mesoscale Vorticity Features within Tropical Cyclone Rainbands

Charmaine N. Franklin, RMIT University, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and G. J. Holland and P. T. May

Poster PDF (67.9 kB)

10:00 AM

8D.7

A case study of heavy rainfall caused by a tropical depression

Yihong Duan, Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai, China

10:15 AM

8D.8

A Simulation of Hurricane Danny (1997) at Landfall using an artificial initial vortex

Sytske K. Kimball, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL

Poster PDF (286.9 kB)

8B

Large-Scale Dynamics and Convection III (Parallel with Sessions 8A, 8C, and 8D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Robert A. Tomas, PAOS, Univ. of Colorado

Papers:

8B.1

The relationship between precipitable water vapor variability and convective activity over the Tropical Western Pacific as revealed by the GMS split-window data

8B.2

Satellite-observed convective components of the ITCZ

9:17 AM

8B.3

Single and double ITCZ in aqua-planet models with globally temporarily uniform sea surface temperature and solar angle: An interpretation

Winston C. Chao, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and B. Chen

Poster PDF (78.0 kB)

9:30 AM

8B.4

Mechanisms of night-morning maximum rainfall offshore of high mountains

Brian E. Mapes, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and T. T. Warner and M. Xu

Poster PDF (77.5 kB)

9:45 AM

8B.5

Westward generation of eastward-moving tropical convective bands in TOGA COARE

Shoichi Shige, National Space Development Agency of Japan, Tokyo, Japan; and T. Satomura

Poster PDF (154.7 kB)

10:00 AM

8B.6

An idealised two-dimensional framework to study convection over West Africa

S. D. Wright, CNRM, Toulouse, France; and J. P. Lafore and J. L. Redelsperger

10:15 AM

8B.7

Decadal Trends in Tropical CAPE

Charlotte A. DeMott, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and D. A. Randall

Poster PDF (217.7 kB)

Coffee Break

9B

Large-Scale Dynamics and Convection IV (Parallel with Sessions 9A, 9C, and 9D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: George Kiladis, NOAA/AL

Papers:

11:00 AM

9B.1

Rainfall variability and convection in african easterly wave regime

Arona Diedhiou, IRD/LTHE, Grenoble, France; and H. Laurent, T. Lebel, and C. Lauaysse

Poster PDF (148.8 kB)

11:15 AM

9B.2

Does an instability of the African easterly jet generate African easterly waves?

Jen-shan Hsieh, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY

Poster PDF (530.8 kB)

11:30 AM

9B.3

Initiation of Convective systems in Subsaharan Northern Africa

Mariane Diop, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; and D. J. Parker

11:45 AM

9B.4

The African Easterly jet-wave system

Rosalind J. Cornforth, Univ. of Reading, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom

Poster PDF (105.3 kB)

12:00 PM

9B.5

The JET2000 experiment: large-scale overview of the 2001 season

Chris D. Thorncroft, SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. J. Parker, D. Aida, and C. M. Taylor

12:15 PM

9B.6

Jet2000 experiment : Mesoscale Structures, Diurnal Cycle and NWP issues

Aida Diongue, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; and D. J. Parker, C. D. Thorncroft, R. Dumelow, and A. M. Tompkins

http://www.env.leeds.ac.uk/ias/dynamics/JET2000/

Poster PDF (1.2 MB)

9C

Tropical Cyclogenesis II (Parallel with Sessions 9A, 9B, and 9D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Sytske Kimball, University of South Alabama

Papers:

11:00 AM

9C.1

Genesis of a hurricane in a sheared environment

John E. Molinari, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Vollaro and K. L. Corbosiero

Poster PDF (48.3 kB)

11:15 AM

9C.2

Baroclinic Tropical Cyclogenesis: Developing and Non-developing Cases

Christipher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. F. Bosart

Poster PDF (175.9 kB)

11:30 AM

9C.3

Impacts of environmental moisture on tropical cyclogenesis

Jeremy T. Pennington, RSMAS/University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL

Poster PDF (189.9 kB)

11:45 AM

9C.4

The Vertical Alignment of an Incipient Tropical Cyclone

David A. Schecter, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. T. Montgomery and P. D. Reasor

Poster PDF (167.0 kB)

12:00 PM

9C.5

Early detection of tropical cyclones using SeaWinds-derived vorticity for the 2001 hurricane season

Ryan J. Sharp, COAPS/Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and M. A. Bourassa, J. J. O'Brien, K. Katsaros, and E. B. Forde

Poster PDF (134.6 kB)

12:15 PM

9C.6

Possibility of prevention of destructive hurricanes generation by their initiation on stage of genesis

Vadim N. Pelevin, P.P.Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

9D

Tropical Cyclone Simulation: Initialization and Assimilation (Parallel with Sessions 9A, 9B, and 9C)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Joseph A. Zehnder, Arizona State University

Papers:

11:00 AM

9D.1

An initialization technique using airborne Doppler radar observations for numerical simulations of Hurricane Bret (21–23 August 1999)

Olivier Nuissier, Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées, Toulouse, France; and R. F. Rogers and F. Roux

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)

11:15 AM

9D.2

Initialization of a hurricane vortex based on single-doppler radar observations

Jim-Luen Lee, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and A. E. MacDonald, Y. -. H. Kuo, W. -. C. Lee, W. Wang, and S. -. H. Chen

Poster PDF (264.4 kB)

11:30 AM

9D.3

High-resolution simulation of Hurricane Danny (1997): Comparison with radar observations

Ying-Hwa Kuo, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Wang, Q. Zhang, W. C. Lee, and M. M. Bell

Poster PDF (66.0 kB)

11:45 AM

9D.4

Assimilation of GOES rapid-scan winds into an experimental Eta Model During Atlantic Hurricanes

Howard I. Berger, University of Wisconsin/CIMSS, Madison, WI

Poster PDF (118.1 kB)

12:00 PM

9D.5

NUMERICAL SIMULATION AND OBSERVATIONS IN PASSIVE MICROWAVE RADIOMETRY OF THE TROPICAL HURRICANE BRET (AUGUST 1999)

Corinne Burlaud, CETP, Velizy, France; and N. Viltard, O. Nuissier, and F. Roux

Poster PDF (36.9 kB)

12:15 PM

9D.6

Assimilating IFSAR DEM data into an ADCIRC cimulation of Hurricane Camille

Jayaram Veeramony, Mississippi State University; and P. J. Fitzpatrick, D. Herndon, N. Tran, E. Valenti, and D. Nechaeu

Poster PDF (108.3 kB)

Lunch Break

10A

Hurricane Impacts in the Americas (Parallel with Sessions 10B, 10C, and 10D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Ramon Perez, Cuban Weather Service

Papers:

2:00 PM

10A.1

Forecasting during the 2001 Atlantic hurricane season

Max Mayfield, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC, Miami, FL; and L. A. Avila

Poster PDF (173.1 kB)

2:15 PM

10A.2

Crisis management and preventive responses to the last tropical cyclone experiences in the french Antilles

Françoise Pagney Bénito-Espinal, Université des Antilles et de la Guyane, Pointe-à-Pitre, Guadeloupe; and C. Asselin de Beauville, A. Bonneton, and C. A. Pontikis

2:30 PM

10A.3

Study of the relation between economical damage and specific hurricane characteristics

Athanasia Koussoula-Bonneton, Université des Antilles et de la Guyane, Pointe à Pitre, Guadeloupe; and F. Pagney, C. Asselin de Beauville, and C. A. Pontikis

2:45 PM

10A.4

Tropical Cyclone evasion by United States Navy afloat units via Optimum Track Ship Routing (OTSR) in the Atlantic Basin

Glenn S. Bingham, Naval Atlantic Meteorolgy and Oceanography Center, Norfolk, VA

Poster PDF (30.2 kB)

3:00 PM

10A.5

Developing a recent tropical cyclone rainfall climatology for the United States

David M. Roth, NOAA/NCEP/HPC, Camp Springs, MD

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)

3:15 PM

10A.6

Thirty Years After Hurricane Agnes—The Forgotten Florida Tornado Disaster

Bartlett C. Hagemeyer, NOAA/NWS, Melbourne, FL; and S. M. Spratt

Poster PDF (29.5 kB)

10B

Large-Scale Dynamics and Convection V (Parallel with Sessions 10A, 10C, and 10D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Brant Liebmann, Univ. of Colorado

Papers:

2:00 PM

10B.1

Zonally Asymmetric Heating and the Hadley Circulation: Role of Continents in Determining the Structure and Seasonal Behavior of the MMC

Kerry H. Cook, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY

2:15 PM

10B.2

Tropical tropospheric temperature variations caused by ENSO and their influence on the remote tropical climate

John C. H. Chiang, JISAO/University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. H. Sobel

Poster PDF (305.8 kB)

2:30 PM

10B.3

Axisymmetric circulations in a moist atmosphere

Olivier Pauluis, MIT, Cambridge, MA

2:45 PM

10B.4

Spatial-time structure of the energy content over tropics

Valery N. Khokhlov, Odessa State Ecological University, Odessa, Ukraine; and A. V. Glushkov

Poster PDF (103.2 kB)

3:00 PM

10B.5

An investigation into the potential effects of recurving western Pacific tropical cyclones on the large-scale circulation

Randell J. Barry, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY

Poster PDF (4.5 MB)

3:15 PM

10B.6

Forcing of interannual variability of the tropical tropopause and lower stratosphere

George Kiladis, NOAA/AL, Boulder, CO; and K. H. Straub

Poster PDF (806.2 kB)

10D

Tropical Cyclone Simulation: Parameterizations and Numerics (Parallel with Sessions 10A, 10B, and 10C)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: John D. Molinari, University at Albany/SUNY

Papers:

2:00 PM

10D.1

Simulation of tropical cyclones using the GFDL TC model with bulk parameterization and spectral microphysics

Robert E. Tuleya, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and M. Bender and A. P. Khain

Poster PDF (174.5 kB)

2:15 PM

10D.2

A preliminary investigation of a common microphysical parameterization and its applicability to tropical cyclone simulations

Robert F. Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and R. A. Black and D. L. Zhang

2:30 PM

10D.3

Sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensification and intensity to cloud microphysics parameterization

Yuqing Wang, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI

Poster PDF (260.4 kB)

2:45 PM

10D.4

Sensitivity of modeled tropical cyclone track and structure of Hurricane Irene (1999) to the convective parameterization scheme

Barbara E. Prater, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA

http://www.angelfire.com/mi/cyndertobey/irene/index.html

Poster PDF (172.2 kB)

3:00 PM

10D.5

Effects of Vertical Differencing in a minimal hurricane model

Hongyan Zhu, University of Munich, Munich, Germany

3:15 PM

10D.6

High order numerical schemes for simulating tropical cyclone dynamics

Russel P. Morison, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; and K. A. Tan, L. M. Leslie, and R. F. Abbey Jr.

Poster PDF (14.8 kB)

Coffee Break

11B

Large-Scale Dynamics and Convection VI (Parallel with Sessions 11A, 11C, and 11D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Victor Magaña, National Autonomous Univiversity of Mexico

Papers:

4:00 PM

11B.1

Effects of Hurricanes on the Stratosphere: Evidence of Gravity Wave Activity From CAMEX-4 In Situ Measurements and Mesoscale Modeling

Eric A. Ray, NOAA/AL, Boulder, CO; and K. H. Rosenlof, E. C. Richard, K. K. Kelly, M. J. Mahoney, and M. J. Alexander

4:15 PM

11B.2

Distal and sympathetic surface trough development induced by TUTT cells: a case study

Billy D. Ward Jr., NOAA/NWS, Barrigada, Guam; and M. A. Lander

Poster PDF (206.5 kB)

4:30 PM

11B.3

Impact of an African squall line on large scale fields of heat, moisture and momentum

Jean-Philippe Lafore, CNRM/Meteo-France and CNRS, Toulouse, France; and A. Diongue, J. L. Redelsperger, and B. Thomas

Poster PDF (443.6 kB)

4:45 PM

11B.4

The Thermal Fields of the Hawaiian Wakes and the Circulation on the Leeside of the Island of Hawaii

Yang Yang, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and Y. L. Chen

Poster PDF (193.3 kB)

5:00 PM

11B.5

Impact of Trade-wind Strength on the Windward Rainfall and Circulation over the Island of Hawaii

Mary Ann Esteban, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and Y. L. Chen

Poster PDF (4.7 MB)

5:15 PM

11B.6

Performance of the ECMWF operational analysis during the 1999 INDOEX and JASMINE

Badrinath Nagarajan, McGill University, Montreal, PQ, Canada; and A. Aiyyer

Poster PDF (121.3 kB)

11C

Tropical Cyclone Best Track

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Max Mayfield, NOAA/TPC/HRC

Papers:

4:00 PM

11C.1

Best Track determination at NHC

Lixion A. Avila, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC, Miami, FL

Poster PDF (39.6 kB)

4:15 PM

11C.2

Accuracy of Pressure-Wind Relationships and Dvorak Satellite Intensity Estimates for Tropical Cyclones Determined from Recent Reconnaissance-based "Best Track" Data

Daniel P. Brown, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC, Miami, FL; and J. L. Franklin

4:30 PM

11C.3

The Atlantic Hurricane database re-analysisproject Documentation for the 1851-1910 Alterations and Additions to the Hurdat Database

Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and C. Anderson, N. Charles, G. Clark, J. P. Dunion, J. Fernandez-Partagas, P. Hungerford, C. Neumann, and M. Zimmer

4:45 PM

11C.4

Insurance sector interests in best-track data sets

Richard J. Murnane, Bermuda Biological Station for Research, Garrett Park, MD

Poster PDF (12.1 kB)

5:00 PM

11C.5

A Current Review of the Historical Information on Tropical Cyclones in Cuba

Ramon Perez, Centro del Clima, Instituto de Meteorologia/AMA/CITMA, Habana, Cuba; and R. Vega and M. Limia

Poster PDF (19.3 kB)

5:15 PM

11C.15

Discussion

11D

Tropical Cyclone Simulation: Large-scale Effects and Climate Change (Parallel with Sessions 11A, 11B, and 11C)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Patrick J. Fitzpatrick, Mississippi State University

Papers:

4:00 PM

11D.1

A Numerical Study of the Evolution of Hurricane Bonnie (1998)

Tong Zhu, University of Maryland, College Park, MD

Poster PDF (59.8 kB)

4:15 PM

11D.2

Intense tropical cyclones in the east Indian Ocean during the 1998/1999 season: short-range numerical experiments with landfalling tropical cyclones

Lance M. Leslie, Unviversity of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. S. Speer and R. F. Abbey Jr.

4:30 PM

11D.3

Preliminary Comparisons of Tropical Cyclone Simulations in the GFDL and WRF Models

David S. Nolan, Princeton University, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and R. E. Tuleya

Poster PDF (164.8 kB)

4:45 PM

11D.4

Simulated tropical cyclones in the NCAR Community Climate Model at T170 resolution

Junichi Tsutsui, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko-shi, Chiba-ken, Japan

Poster PDF (1004.0 kB)

5:00 PM

11D.5

Analysis of High-resolution Climate Change Simulations of Tropical Cyclones

Kevin J. E. Walsh, CSIRO, Aspendale, Vic., Australia; and K. C. Nguyen

5:15 PM

11D.6

Tropical cyclone simulation using a high-resolution AGCM - Impacts of SST warming and CO2 increase

Jun Yoshimura, Frontier Research System for Global Change, Yokohama, Japan; and M. Sugi

THUR 2 MAY

12A

Tropical Cyclone Observations and Structure I (Parallel with Sessions 12B, 12C, and 12D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Shirley Murillo, NOAA/AOML/HRD

Papers:

8:30 AM

12A.1

Optimal Rain Rate Estimation in Tropical Cyclones: Validation of SFMR Remote Sensing Rain Rates

Haiyan Jiang, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and P. G. Black, E. W. Uhlhorn, P. Leighton, E. J. Zipser, and F. D. Marks Jr.

http://meteor.met.utah.edu/zipser/hjiang/SFMR_preprint.htm

Poster PDF (141.2 kB)

8:45 AM

12A.2

Evaluation of microwave imagery in the life cycle of tropical cyclones

Roger T. Edson, Anteon Corp., Univ. of Guam, Tamuning, Guam; and M. A. Lander

Poster PDF (114.0 kB)

9:00 AM

12A.3

Concentric Eyewall Mapping and Frequency Via Passive Microwave Imagery

Jeffrey D. Hawkins, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Helveston

9:15 AM

12A.4

A Study of Rainfall Asymmetry in Tropical Cyclones Using TRMM Microwave Imager.

Manuel Lonfat, RSMAS, University of Miami, Miami, FL

Poster PDF (58.1 kB)

9:30 AM

12A.5

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Using The NOAA-KLM Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU): Part I -- Initial Field Test and Lessons Learned

Kurt F. Brueske, U.S. Air Force Academy, USAF, CO; and C. S. Velden, B. W. Kabat, and J. D. Hawkins

Poster PDF (67.2 kB)

9:45 AM

12A.6

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Using The NOAA-KLM Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU): Part II: A Multi-Channel Approach

Brian Kabat, Univ. of Wisconsin/CIMSS, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden and K. F. Brueske

Poster PDF (424.5 kB)

10:00 AM

12A.7

Examining structural changes and circulation center of Hurricane Danny (1997) using a single-Doppler radar wind retrieval technique

Shirley T. Murillo, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and W. -. C. Lee, F. D. Marks Jr., and P. P. Dodge

10:15 AM

12A.8

Operational Implementation of Single-Doppler Radar Algorithms for Tropical Cyclones

Paul R. Harasti, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. C. Lee, J. D. Tuttle, C. J. McAdie, P. P. Dodge, S. T. Murillo, and F. D. Marks Jr.

Poster PDF (121.5 kB)

12D

tropical cyclone extratropical transition (Parallel with Sessions 12A, 12B, and 12C)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Joseph Cionne, NOAA/AOML/HRD

Papers:

8:30 AM

12D.1

Operational forecasting of extra-tropical transition

Chris Fogarty, Newfoundland Weather Center, Gander, NF, Canada

http://www.geocities.com/novaweather/ET_schematic.html

Poster PDF (425.5 kB)

8:45 AM

12D.2

Simulations of the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Contributions by the Midlatitude Upper-level trough

Elizabeth A. Ritchie, NPS, Montery, CA; and R. L. Elsberry

Poster PDF (273.9 kB)

9:00 AM

12D.3

Tropical cyclone extratropical transition: A reversible process?

John L. Beven II, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC, Miami, FL

9:15 AM

12D.4

extratropical transitions of Hurricanes Michael and Karen:Storm Reconnaissance with the Canadian Convair 580 Aircraft

Jim Abraham, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and C. Fogarty and W. Strapp

Poster PDF (361.1 kB)

9:30 AM

12D.5

The extratropical transition of hurricane Irene (1999)

Anna Agusti-Panareda, Univ. of Reading, Reading, Berks, United Kingdom

Poster PDF (198.6 kB)

9:45 AM

12D.6

Numerical Experiments on the Interaction of a Hurricane-like Vortex with a Baroclinic Wave

Helga Weindl, University of Munich, Munich, Germany

Poster PDF (286.9 kB)

10:00 AM

12D.7

The double transition of Hurricane Michael(2000): Baroclinic to tropical to baroclinic

Lance F. Bosart, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and P. G. Black, J. L. Evans, J. E. Molinari, C. S. Velden, and M. J. Dickinson

Poster PDF (3.7 MB)

10:15 AM

12D.8

Hurricane Michael: The "Two-Way TC"

Jenni L. Evans, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and C. Velden, L. F. Bosart, J. E. Molinari, and P. G. Black

Poster PDF (257.5 kB)

12C

Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction I (Parallel with Sessions 12A, 12B, and 12D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Peter J. Webster, Univ. of Colorado

Papers:

9:00 AM

12C.1

The Nature of the Indian Ocean Zonal Mode

Galina Chirokova, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster, C. Clark, and W. Han

9:15 AM

12C.2

Relationships between anomalous monsoons, meridional oceanic heat transport and the Indian Ocean Dipole in the NCAR CSM

Johannes Loschnigg, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI; and G. A. Meehl, P. J. Webster, J. M. Arbaster, and G. P. Compo

9:30 AM

12C.3

Influence of ENSO on the Indian Ocean dipole

Toshiaki Shinoda, NOAA/CDC, Boulder, CO; and M. A. Alexander and H. H. Hendon

Poster PDF (10.7 kB)

9:45 AM

12C.4

A coupled GCM study of the interactions between ENSO and the Indian Ocean-Monsoon system

Jin-Yi Yu, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA

10:00 AM

12C.5

ENSO-Induced Air-Sea Interaction in the Maritime Continent

Harry H. Hendon, BMRC, Melbounre, Vic., Australia

Poster PDF (26.5 kB)

10:15 AM

12C.6

Quasi-biennial and Low-frequency Variability of the South Asian Monsoon

Tim Li, IPRC/SOEST, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and Y. Zhang, C. -. P. Chang, and B. Wang

Coffee Break

13A

Tropical Cyclone Observations and Structure II(Parallel with Sessions 13B, 13C, and 13D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Roger T. Edson, Anteon Corporation, Univ. of Guam

Papers:

11:00 AM

13A.1

Analysis of QuikScat rain-flagged winds within the tropical cyclone environment

Deborah K. Smith, Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, CA; and F. J. Wentz and C. A. Mears

Poster PDF (169.7 kB)

11:15 AM

13A.2

The evolution of a hurricane-trough interaction from a satellite perspective

Deborah E. Hanley, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

Poster PDF (161.5 kB)

11:30 AM

13A.3

Latent Heating Structures of Hurricanes from TRMM Measurements

Song Yang, JCET/University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and W. S. Olson, C. D. Kummerow, S. Chen, Z. Haddad, and E. A. Smith

Poster PDF (941.6 kB)

11:45 AM

13A.4

Russian/FSU tropical cyclone research: the Last 25 years

Richard E. Peterson, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and P. G. Black and V. Pudov

Poster PDF (83.9 kB)

12:00 PM

13A.5

Vertical mass, momentum, moisture, and heat fluxes in hurricanes above 10 km during CAMEX-3 and CAMEX-4

Leonhard Pfister, NASA/Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA; and T. P. Bui, R. L. Herman, and J. Dean-Day

12:15 PM

13A.6

Microwave scattering observed in convective cells during CAMEX-4

Bjorn H. Lambrigtsen, JPL, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and A. L. Riley

Poster PDF (4.9 MB)

13B

Climate Processes in the Americas and Eastern Pacific I (Parallel with Sessions 13A, 13C, and 13D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Chris D. Thorncroft, SUNY

Papers:

11:00 AM

13B.1

Climate Experiment in the Americas warm pools

Victor Magaña, National Autonomous Univiversity of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; and E. Caetano and J. L. Vázquez

Poster PDF (838.5 kB)

11:15 AM

13B.2

Effects of the Sea Surface Temperature on Meridonal Pressure Gradients in the Eastern Pacific

Michael Gerald McGauley, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL

Poster PDF (178.3 kB)

11:30 AM

13B.3

Convection and easterly waves observed in the eastern Pacific ITCZ during EPIC2001

Walter A. Petersen, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. Cifelli, D. J. Boccippio, and S. A. Rutledge

Poster PDF (57.0 kB)

11:45 AM

13B.4

Diurnal cycle of convection in the East Pacific ITCZ during EPIC-2001

Dennis J. Boccippio, NASA/MSFC, Marshall Space Flight Center, AL; and W. A. Petersen, R. Cifelli, and S. A. Rutledge

Poster PDF (562.5 kB)

12:00 PM

13B.5

Development of new convective cells in the east Pacific warm pool

Carlos Lopez-Carrillo, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and D. Raymond and Z. Fuchs

Poster PDF (140.0 kB)

12:15 PM

13B.6

Factors controlling the east Pacific ITCZ during EPIC2001

David J. Raymond, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City, DF, Mexico; and C. S. Bretherton and G. Raga

Poster PDF (174.4 kB)

13C

Ocean Atmosphere Interaction II (Parallel with Sessions 13A, 13B, and 13D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Bin Wang, Univ. of Hawaii

Papers:

11:00 AM

13C.1

A simple model of tropical Atlantic decadal climate variability

Yochanan Kushnir, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and R. Seager and J. C. H. Chiang

11:15 AM

13C.2

Tropical Atlantic Climate Variability: Coupled atmospheric response to off-equatorial heat content anomalies

Martin Visbeck, LDEO Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and N. Naik

11:30 AM

13C.3

Interannual variations of winter to summer transition of the low-level cross equatorial flow over the South China Sea

Mong-Ming Lu, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan

Poster PDF (55.7 kB)

11:45 AM

13C.4

The seasonal cycle and El Niño termination

D.E. Harrison, NOAA/ERL/PMEL, Seattle, WA; and G. A. Vecchi

12:00 PM

13C.5

Collective and competitive roles out of thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks in the ENSO Mode

Soon-Il An, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and F. F. Jin

Poster PDF (61.1 kB)

12:15 PM

13C.6

Precipitation variability and barrier-layer formation in the North Indian Ocean

Shalini Mohleji, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and C. A. Clayson

Poster PDF (583.6 kB)

13D

Tropical Cyclone Extratropical Transition II (Parallel with Sessions 13A, 13B, and 13C)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: John L. Beven II, NOAA/AOML/NHC/TPC

Papers:

11:00 AM

13D.1

Influence of the downstream state on extratropical transition: Hurricane Earl (1998) case study

R. J. McTaggart-Cowan, McGill University, Montreal, PQ, Canada

Poster PDF (161.5 kB)

11:15 AM

13D.2

Quantitative measurements of extratropical transition in the Atlantic basin

Joshua K. Darr, Univ. at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY

Poster PDF (141.5 kB)

11:30 AM

13D.3

Extratropical transition: One Trajectory through cyclone phase space

Robert Hart, Penna State Univ., University Park, PA; and J. L. Evans

http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/cyclonephase

Poster PDF (200.7 kB)

11:45 AM

13D.4

Extratropical Transition of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones: Midlatitude and Tropical Cyclone Contributions to Re-intensification

Peter M. Klein, NPS, Monterey, CA; and P. A. Harr and R. L. Elsberry

Poster PDF (76.9 kB)

12:00 PM

13D.5

An examination of the mesoscale structure associated with the extratropical transition of Hurricane Agnes (1972)

Michael J. Dickinson, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart

Poster PDF (458.1 kB)

Lunch Break

14A

Tropical Cyclone Observations and Structure III (Parallel with Sessions 14B, 14C, and 14D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Jason P. Dunion, NOAA/AOML/HRD

Papers:

2:00 PM

14A.1

A Multi-Platform View of Hurricane Erin

Brian D. McNoldy, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and W. H. Schubert and J. P. Kossin

Poster PDF (139.2 kB)

2:15 PM

14A.2

Observations of the evolution of precipitation and kinematic structure in a hurricane as it encountered strong westerly shear

John F. Gamache, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and P. D. Reasor, H. E. Willoughby, M. L. Black, and F. D. Marks Jr.

Poster PDF (282.2 kB)

2:30 PM

14A.3

Intensity of Recurving Typhoons From a PV Perspective

Andrew S. Levine, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and G. M. Barnes

Poster PDF (1.2 MB)

2:45 PM

14A.4

The relationship between GPS dropsonde wind profiles and sea-surface temperature in Hurricane Bret (1999)

Michael L. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and E. W. Uhlhorn, S. E. Feuer, W. P. Barry, and L. K. Shay

3:00 PM

14A.5

A New Parametric Model of Hurricane Wind Profiles

Hugh E. Willoughby, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Maimi, FL; and M. E. Rahn

3:15 PM

14A.6

Evaluation of SeaWinds wind speed measurements in hurricane Floyd

W. Linwood Jones, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL; and J. D. Park, I. Adams, and S. S. Chen

Poster PDF (31.1 kB)

14B

Climate Processes in the Americas and Eastern Pacific II (Parallel with Sessions 14A, 14C, and 14D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Walter Peterson, Colorado State University

Papers:

2:00 PM

14B.1

Onset of the rainy season over Tropical Brazil in Observationsand A general Circulation Model Simulation

Brant Liebmann, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and D. Allured, A. Seth, and S. J. Camargo

Poster PDF (113.8 kB)

2:15 PM

14B.2

Observational Study of the mid summer drought during the Climate Experiment in the Americas warm pools

Ernesto Caetano, National Autonomous Univ. of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; and V. Magaña

Poster PDF (36.5 kB)

2:30 PM

14B.3

Study of the factors that induced an unusual drought in Guadeloupe (FWI)

Christian Asselin de Beauville, Université des Antilles et de la Guyane, Pointe à Pitre, Guadeloupe; and F. Pagney, A. Bonneton, B. Dudon, and C. A. Pontikis

14B.4

Gulf surges: mean characteristics from 9 years of radiosonde data and NCEP real analyses

2:45 PM

14B.5

Central American cold surges and precipitation

Teresa M. Bals-Elsholz, Valparaiso University, Valparaiso, IN

3:00 PM

14B.6

Ocean model simulations of a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec

Jon M. Schrage, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and C. A. Clayson, D. M. Schultz, and R. J. Machtmes

Poster PDF (234.7 kB)

14C

Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction III (Parallel with Sessions 14A, 14B, and 14D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Soon-Il An, International Pacific Research Center, Univ. of Hawaii

Papers:

2:00 PM

14C.1

Tropical air-sea feedbacks: model results and data analysis

Carol Anne Clayson, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and A. Chen

2:15 PM

14C.2

Regulation of Tropical Deep Convection by SST and Wind Speed

Ian A. Folkins, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada

2:30 PM

14C.3

Sensitivity of a coupled single column model in the tropics to treatment of the interfacial parameterizations

Aidong Chen, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and C. A. Clayson and P. K. Chan

Poster PDF (516.6 kB)

2:45 PM

14C.4

Interaction Between Surface Heat Budgets, Sea Surface Temperature and Deep Convection in the Tropical Western Pacific

Shu-Hsien Chou, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. -. D. Chou and P. -. H. Lin

Poster PDF (15.0 kB)

3:00 PM

14C.5

Use of Granger causalities to examine air-sea feedbacks in the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean

Brian Getzewich, Aerospace Corporation, El Segundo, CA; and C. A. Clayson

Poster PDF (529.9 kB)

3:15 PM

14C.6

Mesoscale air-sea interaction over the western Pacific warm pool simulated in an air-sea coupled model

Shaowu Bao, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and L. Xie and S. Raman

14D

Tropical Cyclone Air-Sea Interaction (Parallel with Sessions 14A, 14B, and 14C)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: David S Nolan, NOAA/GFDL

Papers:

2:00 PM

14D.1

Ocean mixed layer thermal changes induced by moving tropical cyclones. Part I: Analyses of inner core observations Obtained by research aircraft

Robert W. Burpee, University of Miami/CIMAS, Miami, FL; and P. G. Black

Poster PDF (339.4 kB)

2:15 PM

14D.2

Processes affecting the ocean's feedback on the intensity of a hurricane

Robert L. Korty, MIT, Cambridge, MA

Poster PDF (179.8 kB)

2:30 PM

14D.3

Hurricane Heat Potential Variability From In Situ and Radar Altimetry Measurements

Lynn K. Shay, RSMAS/Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and S. D. Jacob, T. M. Cook, M. M. Mainelli, S. R. White, P. G. Black, G. J. Goni, and R. E. Cheney

Poster PDF (126.9 kB)

2:45 PM

14D.4

Surface heat flux-induced SST changes and their effect on tropical cyclone intensity at landfall

Weixing Shen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and I. Ginis

3:00 PM

14D.5

The upper ocean salinity response to tropical cyclones

Evan J. Robertson, Univ. of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. Ginis

Poster PDF (183.9 kB)

3:15 PM

14D.6

Estimation of the drag coefficient in tropical cyclones using ocean response data

Vladimir Pudov, Institute of Experimental Meteorology, Obninsk, Russia; and I. Ginis and S. Petrichenko

Coffee Break

15A

Tropical Cyclone Observations and Structure IV (Parallel with Sessions 15B and 15D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Peter G. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD

Papers:

4:00 PM

15A.1

Improvements to the NOAA Hurricane Research Division's Surface Reduction Algorithm for Inner Core Aircraft Flight-Level Winds

Jason P. Dunion, NOAA/AOML/HRD and Univ. of Miami/CIAMS, Miami, FL; and M. D. Powell

4:15 PM

15A.2

Sensitivity study of HRD's H*WIND surface wind analyses for tropical cyclones

Samuel H. Houston, NOAA/NWS/WFO, Honolulu, HI; and M. D. Powell

Poster PDF (57.7 kB)

4:30 PM

15A.3

Low-level thermodynamic structure of hurricanes as seen with the GPS sonde

Gary Michael Barnes, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and D. Wroe

Poster PDF (4.7 kB)

4:45 PM

15A.4

Development of the Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique (AODT) - Current progress and future directions

Timothy L. Olander, Univ. of Wisconsin/CIMSS, Madison, WI; and C. Velden and M. A. Turk

Poster PDF (21.8 kB)

5:00 PM

15A.5

Daily hurricane variability inferred from GOES infrared imagery

James P. Kossin, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO

Poster PDF (1.0 MB)

5:15 PM

15A.6

Regions of intense convection in the core of minimal tropical cyclones

Daniel E. Lipper, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY

Poster PDF (1.0 MB)

15B

Intraseasonal variability (Parallel with Sessions 15A and 15D)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Eric D. Maloney, NCAR

Papers:

4:00 PM

15B.1

Wave-Convection-Radiation Feedback in Madden-Julian Oscillation

Jialin Lin, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and M. Zhang, T. Qian, R. D. Cess, B. E. Mapes, and M. Newman

Poster PDF (95.5 kB)

15B.2

Modeling intraseasonal variability with an aquaplanet GCM

4:15 PM

15B.3

Investigation of the MJO in the ECMWF model

Adrian M. Tompkins, ECMWF, Reading, Berks, United Kingdom; and T. Jung

4:30 PM

15B.4

Cloud Radiative Effects and Tropical Intraseasonal Variability

Sandrine Bony, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Paris, France; and K. A. Emanuel

15B.5

Equatorial Kelvin wave instability and the wind-evaporation feedback mechahism

4:45 PM

15B.6

MJO-like coherent structures in idealized aquaplanet simulations

Wojciech W. Grabowski, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Poster PDF (1.0 MB)

5:00 PM

15B.2A

Does the tropical atmosphere support large-scale radiative-convective overturning? (Formerly Paper Number P1.51)

Jialin Lin, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and M. Zhang and B. E. Mapes

Poster PDF (154.6 kB)

15D

Tropical Cyclone Air-Sea Interaction II (Parallel with Sessions 15A and 15B)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Lynn K. Shay, University of Miami/RSMAS

Papers:

4:00 PM

15D.1

Implementation of data assimilation and ocean initialization for the coupled GFDL/URI hurricane prediction system

Aleksandr Falkovich, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Silver Spring, MD; and I. Ginis

4:15 PM

15D.2

Assimilating ocean satellite altimetry for hurricane intensification forecasts

Suzanna C. Barth, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and R. L. Leben and K. A. Emanuel

4:30 PM

15D.3

atmosphere-ocean modeling of hurricane Erin 2001

Will Perrie, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and E. Dunlap, Y. Hu, W. Li, Z. Long, B. Toulany, and P. Vachon

4:45 PM

15D.4

Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Coupling in Tropical Cyclones

Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and W. Zhao, J. E. Tenerelli, and M. Donelan

5:00 PM

15D.5

Sensitivity of a coupled tropical cyclone/ocean wave simulation to different energy transfer schemes

Sharhdad A. Sajjadi, Center of Higher Learning, University of Southern Mississippi, Stennis Space Center, MS; and P. J. Fitzpatrick, M. T. Bettencourt, and G. Mostovoi

Poster PDF (122.0 kB)

5:15 PM

15D.6

Numerical simulations of the hurricane directional wave spectra in the open ocean and at landfall

Isaac Ginis, Univ. of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. J. Moon, T. Hara, E. J. Walsh, and H. Tolman

Panel Discussion 1

Subtropical Hybrid Storms: Classification Issues and Warning Strategies

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Moderator: Chris Landsea, NOAA/AOML/HRD

Panelists: Mark Lander, University of Guam; Jeff Callaghan, Bureau of Meteorology; John Beven, NOAA/NHC; Gary Padgett, U.S. Air Force; David Roth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP

FRI 3 MAY

16A

Tropical Cyclone Observations and Structure V (Parallel with Sessions 16B and 16C)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: James L. Franklin, NOAA/NWS

Papers:

8:30 AM

16A.1

Typhoon Hunter 2001 In Japan

Tetsuo Nakazawa, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and K. Bessho

Poster PDF (1.3 MB)

8:45 AM

16A.2

Application of Aerosondes to Understanding Hurricanes

Brenda Mulac, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and G. J. Holland and J. Curry

9:00 AM

16A.3

High-resolution observations of the eyewall in an intense hurricane: Bret on 21–22 August 1999

Peter P. Dodge, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. L. Black, J. L. Franklin, J. F. Gamache, and F. D. Marks Jr.

Poster PDF (191.8 kB)

9:15 AM

16A.4

What are Annular Hurricanes?

John A. Knaff, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and J. P. Kossin and M. DeMaria

Poster PDF (493.9 kB)

9:30 AM

16A.5

An Improved VTD Algorithm to Resolve Circulations of a Wavenumber Two Tropical Cyclone

Wen-Chau Lee, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and P. R. Harasti and M. M. Bell

Poster PDF (240.5 kB)

9:45 AM

16A.6

POTENTIAL VORTICITY DIAGNOSIS OF A SIMULATED HURRICANE

Xingbao Wang, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and D. L. Zhang

Poster PDF (312.3 kB)

10:00 AM

16A.7

An analysis of some tropical cyclone boundary layer wind observations

Jeffrey D. Kepert, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia

Poster PDF (91.4 kB)

10:15 AM

16A.8

Radar derived structures of tornadic mesocyclones from Tropical Cyclone (TC) Frances (1998) in Texas and Louisiana

Gandikota V. Rao, St. Louis Univ., St. Louis, MO; and J. W. Scheck and R. Edwards

Poster PDF (130.1 kB)

16C

Tropical Cyclone Air-Sea Interaction III (Parallel with Sessions 16A and 16B)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Suzanna C. Barth, Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research

Papers:

8:30 AM

16C.1

Tropical storm intensity forecasts: potential improvements through inclusion of microwave SSTs

Chelle L. Gentemann, Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, CA; and F. J. Wentz

8:45 AM

16C.2

The impact of oceanic heat content on hurricane intensity forecasts using the SHIPS model

Michelle Mainelli, NOAA/NWS/TPC, Miami, FL; and M. DeMaria and L. K. Shay

Poster PDF (21.0 kB)

9:00 AM

16C.3

Tropical Cyclone Intensity in Relation to SST and Moisture Variability: A Global Perspective

Robbie Berg, RSMAS/Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL

Poster PDF (73.6 kB)

9:15 AM

16C.4

upper ocean Heat Content and Energy Extracted by the storm: Analytical Look

Joseph J. Cione, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and E. W. Uhlhorn

Poster PDF (39.5 kB)

9:30 AM

16C.5

Surface Wave Effects on the Ocean Mixed Layer Response To Hurricane Bonnie

Thomas M. Cook, RSMAS/Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay, S. D. Jacob, C. W. Wright, P. G. Black, and E. W. Uhlhorn

Poster PDF (116.2 kB)

9:45 AM

16C.6

Tropical cyclone enthalpy and angular momentum fluxes

William D. Ramstrom, MIT, Cambridge, MA

http://wind.mit.edu/~ramstrom/flux/

Poster PDF (419.3 kB)

10:00 AM

16C.7

A Study of the Sustaining Mechanism of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

Chen Lianshou, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and Z. Meng

Poster PDF (21.6 kB)

10:15 AM

16C.8

A numerical simulation of the landfall tropical cyclones

Xudong Liang, Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai, China; and J. C. L. Chan

Poster PDF (38.0 kB)

16B

Inraseasonal Variability II (Parallel with Sessions 16A and 16C)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Chidong Zhang, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS

Papers:

9:00 AM

16B.1

eastern Pacific Intraseasonal precipitation and SST variations in a GCM coupled to a slab ocean model

Eric D. Maloney, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. T. Kiehl

http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/~maloney/som/som.html

Poster PDF (76.2 kB)

9:15 AM

16B.2

Intra-seasonal perturbation of the Convective Activity over the Indian Ocean and relation with the SST

Jean-Philippe Duvel, Laboratoire de Météotrologie Dynamique, Paris, France; and R. Roca

Poster PDF (26.2 kB)

9:30 AM

16B.3

Surface heat fluxes during the MJO and their effects on the oceanic mixed layer in the Tropical Eastern Hemisphere.

Crispian P. Batstone, Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; and A. J. Matthews and D. P. Stevens

Poster PDF (639.1 kB)

9:45 AM

16B.4

Sub-seasonal, seasonal and interannual variability of western Arabian Sea Surface Temperature

Gabriel A. Vecchi, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. E. Harrison and R. W. Reynolds

10:00 AM

16B.5

Mesoscale simulations of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the Indian and West Pacific Oceans

William I. Gustafson Jr., Univ. of California, Davis, CA; and B. C. Weare

10:15 AM

16B.6

Extratropical forcing of convectively coupled Kelvin waves

Katherine H. Straub, NOAA/CIRES, Boulder, CO; and G. N. Kiladis

Poster PDF (670.6 kB)

Coffee Break

17A

Tropical Cyclone Observations and Structure VI(Parallel with Sessions 17B and 17C)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Kevin Walsh, CSIRO Atmospheric Research

Papers:

11:00 AM

17A.1

Numerical simulations of atmospheric boundary layer roll vortices in hurricane conditions

Isaac Ginis, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and B. Thomas and A. P. Khain

11:15 AM

17A.2

Observational Analysis of Buoyancy in Eyewalls of Intense Hurricanes

Matthew D. Eastin, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

Poster PDF (97.9 kB)

11:30 AM

17A.3

A pilot meteorology-hydrology study for Typhoon Nari

Chung-Hsiung Sui, National Central Univ., Chung-Li, Taiwan; and C. S. Chen, P. L. Lin, and M. H. Li

11:45 AM

17A.4

An objective method to select a consistent set of tropical cyclone circulation centers derived from the GBVTD-simplex algorithm

Michael M. Bell, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. C. Lee

Poster PDF (151.3 kB)

12:00 PM

17A.5

Water recycling and water vapor transport in the vicinity of tropical cyclones from stable isotope ratios

James R. Lawrence, Univ. of Houston, Houston, TX; and S. D. Gedzelman

Poster PDF (78.7 kB)

12:15 PM

17A.6

Meso-scale diagnosis of a torrential rainfall caused by a tropical depression

Hui Yu, Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai, China; and X. Liang and Y. Duan

Poster PDF (289.2 kB)

17B

Intraseasonal Variability III (Parallel with Sessions 17A and 17C)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Adrian M. Tompkins, ECMWF

Papers:

11:00 AM

17B.1

Analysis of observed group propagation and Quasi-standing Oscillations of the Madden and Julian oscillation

Paul E. Roundy, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)

11:15 AM

17B.2

Evolution of mixed Rossby gravity waves in MJO type environments

Anantha R. Aiyyer, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. E. Molinari

Poster PDF (431.0 kB)

11:30 AM

17B.3

Intraseasonal variability over tropical Africa

Adrian J. Matthews, Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom

http://envam1.env.uea.ac.uk/~e058/amstropmet2002.pdf

Poster PDF (207.3 kB)

11:45 AM

17B.4

Prediction of Intraseasonal Variability in Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific

Patrick A. Harr, NPS, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry

Poster PDF (187.7 kB)

12:00 PM

17B.5

Seasonal activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: A precursor of ENSO warm events?

Chidong Zhang, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL

12:15 PM

17B.6

Variability of MJO Associated with ENSO and the QBO

John D. Sheaffer, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO

17C

Tropical Cyclone Air-Sea Interaction IV (Parallel with Sessions 17A and 17B)

Sponsor: 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Michelle Mainelli, NOAA/AOML/NHC/TPC

Papers:

11:00 AM

17C.1

Real-Time Simulation of Hurricane Inner-Core Ocean Cooling as a Gauge for Intensity Change

Eric W. Uhlhorn, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. J. Cione

11:15 AM

17C.2

Effects of entrainment closure on the oceanic mixed layer response during a tropical cyclone passage: A numerical investigation

S. Daniel Jacob, RSMAS, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay and G. R. Halliwell Jr.

Poster PDF (93.7 kB)

11:30 AM

17C.3

Barotropic waves generated by storms moving rapidly over shallow water

Doug Mercer, MSC and Dalhousie Univ., Halifax, NS, Canada; and J. Sheng, R. Greatbatch, and J. Bobanovic

Poster PDF (549.1 kB)

11:45 AM

17C.4

A minimal hurricane model with a coupled mixed layer ocean

Wolfgang Ulrich, Univ. of Munich, Munich, Germany

Poster PDF (34.2 kB)

11:59 AM

17C.5

Paper moved to Poster Session P1, new Paper Number P1.63

12:00 PM

17C.6

Experimental Investigation of Air-Sea Transfer of Momentum and Enthalpy at High Wind Speed

Moshe Alamaro, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. A. Emanuel, J. J. Colton, W. R. McGillis, and J. Edson

Poster PDF (332.3 kB)

12:15 PM

17C.5a

Implementation of a coupled hurricane-land surface prediction system for improving hurricane prediction during landfall (Formerly Paper P1.10)

Weixing Shen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and R. E. Tuleya, S. Lord, N. Surgi, and K. E. Mitchell

Conference Ends

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