Monday, 29 April 2002
A General Theory of Monsoon Regulation in the Context of a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System
Even the features of the annual cycle of the Asian-Australian monsoon
cannot be understood unless the full dynamics of the ocean and the
atmosphere are taken into account in addition to moist surface processes
and elevated heat sources over the land surface. Specifically, the ocean
and the transport heat in an opposite sense at all times of the year.
During the summer, when the cross-equatorial flow is transporting latent
heat northwards, the oceans are transporting approximately the same
amount of heat southwards principally by Ekman processes. The reverse
occurs in winter. In total, the ocean tends to cool the North Indian
Ocean during the summer and warm it during the winter thus modulating
the cross-equatorial winds and the seasonal amplitude of the monsoon.
The coupled nature of the annual cycle of the monsoon suggests a
regulation process of the interannual variability of the monsoon.
Simply, strong or weak atmospheric monsoonal winds (forced perhaps by
ENSO variability or stochastic processes) drive anomalous counter fluxes
of heat which modulate the amplitude of the monsoon in the following
year. Within this regulation, it is shown that the ocean-atmosphere
coupling leads naturally to a strong biennial aspect and also to the
development of the Indian Ocean Zonal Mode (IOZM or Indian Ocean
dipole). In this context, bienniality and the IOZM are part of the
regulatory process that keeps the amplitude of monsoon interannual
variability within strict bounds and ensures that series of multiple excessive or deficient monsoons rarely occur.
The regulation theory of the monsoon results from the analysis of data
sets and from the examination of the response of stand-alone ocean
models. The concept is tested in the context of a complex intermediate
mutli-layer ocean model coupled to a nonlinear atmosphere and an
Asian land mass. The seasonal cycle is replicated together
with interannual variability with alternating anomalous oceanic heat
fluxes and an IOZM.
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