25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Tuesday, 30 April 2002: 9:45 AM
Tropical cyclone track predictability limits
Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
Poster PDF (60.7 kB)
Nonlinear systems analyses calculate the predictability time scale in which average erros increase by a factor of e. The time scale is calculated in the Atlantic, North Pacific and Australia basins. The basin values are compared to show the relative predictability in each basin. The calculated values are compared to previous studies of track forecast predictability and to other studies showing relative difficulty by basin. The values are also compared to current operational track forecast errors in these basins.

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