Thursday, 2 May 2002: 2:30 PM
Intensity of Recurving Typhoons From a PV Perspective
Improvements in forecast models have reduced track errors, but intensity forecasts
have not shown significant gains. Numerical models dealing with intensity change are not
much better than CLIPER models, and statistical models do not address rapid deepening.
Intensity studies have focused on three areas: air-sea interaction, internal dynamics, and
external (environmental) interactions. Since the work of Hoskins et al. (1985), potential
vorticity (PV) has gained popularity as a research tool for tropical cyclones. PV has been
used to understand internal and external influences on tropical cyclone formation and
intensity. Little is known about the causes of intensity changes of recurving typhoons. This
study will use PV to examine external influences on the intensity of recurving typhoons.
Typhoon track and intensity data were obtained from Annual Tropical Cyclone
Reports (Joint Typhoon Warning Center). PV was calculated on isentropic surfaces from
310K to 370K with reanalysis data obtained from the European Centre for Medium-Range
Weather Forecasts. The data set has a horizontal resolution of 1.125 X 1.125 degrees and a
vertical resolution of 13 pressure levels. From 1988-1997, 71 typhoons recurved. Of these
storms, 31 intensified, 28 weakened, and 18 do not change intensity.
Recurving time in this study is defined to be when the storm heading is between
315 degrees (where the storm will be moving more north of west) and 45 degrees (where
the storm will be moving more east of north). Typhoons recurve mainly from a trough
interaction or from a weakening in the subtropical ridge. This study will look at three
different intensity classes of recurving typhoons; those that intensify, those that weaken, and
those whose intensity remains constant. The Dvorak method is used to determine these
intensity changes. PV analysis at upper levels has been useful in examining trough
interactions, but little work has been done using PV without a trough interaction. This
analysis is going to look at both situations.
One example of a case with a weak ridge was Super Typhoon Ginger in 1997.
Ginger intensified from 40 kts. to 145 kts. during recurvature. There was not a pronounced
PV gradient in the upper levels. This is to be expected as PV is highest in the tropopause
and stratosphere. Without a trough present, there is not a pronounced decrease in
tropopause height. As the storm intensified, low values of PV air were advected outward
from the storm. In the middle troposphere, there were some interesting PV anomalies. A
high PV anomaly formed on the southeastern side of the storm, and tracked cyclonically
around the storm as it intensified. Our preliminary interpretation is that the high PV
anomaly was due to diabatic heating from a convective outbreak and may have been
favorable for storm intensification. After the storm reached maximum intensity, the high PV
anomaly settled over the storm, and expanded outward. We believe this behavior may
indicate winds in the outer part of the storm continued to increase even though winds in the
eyewall decreased. At the conference, a comparison of intensifying, weakening, and steady
storms will be made to determine if there is a repeatable PV signature associated with each
group. Ultimately, our goal is to determine if PV fields alone can be used to forecast
intensity, or do we need to use it in conjunction with other fields?
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