Monday, 29 April 2002
Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting
The objective of this study is to understand the physical processes governing the
structure and distribution of precipitation associated with tropical cyclones and,
ultimately, to improve storm intensity and quantitative precipitation forecasts
(QPF). To resolve the hurricane inner core structure, crucial in intensity
forecasting, the model horizontal resolution needs to be at 1-2 km. In this study,
we have developed a storm-following nested-grids modeling system in the
PSU/NCAR MM5, which allow us to conduct 5-7 day long simulations at grid
spacing of 1.67 km. The impact of model grid resolution on hurricane intensity
and precipitation forecasts is investigated. We begin by developing a model
evaluation and validation procedure using the available rainfall observations,
including rain gage network data and the NEXRAD ground based radar-derived
rain rates over the coastal regions, the NASA TRMM satellite TMI/PR
precipitation estimates, and the NOAA airborne radar data over the ocean. MM5
simulations of Hurricanes Floyd (1999) and Bonnie (1998) are compared with
both the GFDL hurricane operational forecasts and the observations. The model
results show that the high grid resolution improves the model simulated eyewall
structure significantly, which generally produces a more realistic precipitation
distribution near the inner core region where the most intense rainfall is observed.
The cumulative storm-total rainfall is less sensitive to model grid resolution and
storm intensity. To further explore the impact of model physical
parameterizations on the storm intensity and QPF, we conduct a series numerical
experiments using various surface heat flux and microphysics parameterizations.
These simulations show that the modeled hurricane intensity is most sensitive to
the surface heat fluxes and less sensitive to the different microphysics
parameterizations.
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