Thursday, 2 May 2002: 9:00 AM
The Nature of the Indian Ocean Zonal Mode
We portray the Indian Ocean Zonal Mode (IOZM or Indian Ocean Dipole) as
a coupled ocean atmosphere instability of the Indian Ocean occurring
often in conjunction with extremes of ENSO but also independently. By
examination of data and the results of numerical models of the
atmosphere and the ocean, we show that the IOZM has many characteristics
of the a lagged-oscillator and made up of atmospheric forced ocean
waves. The IOZM is shown to be strongly tied to the annual cycle and,
depending on the phase, a result of anomalously strong or weak monsoons.
The IOZM is shown to possess a identifiable canonical life cycle. The
life-cycle is sufficiently robust to allow the foreshadowing of
excessive rainfall or drought in East Africa during the autumnal
equinox, or anomalous sea-level heights in the Bay of Bengal.
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