11B.1 Integrating Unified Gravity Wave Physics into the Next Generation Global Prediction System: First Results in the Global Forecast System

Wednesday, 1 July 2015: 4:00 PM
Salon A-5 (Hilton Chicago)
Jordan C. Alpert, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and V. Yudin, T. J. Fuller-Rowell, and R. A. Akmaev

Orographic and non-orographic grid scale and sub-grid scale gravity waves (GW) and their associated generation of turbulence represent one of the major uncertainties of model troposphere and stratosphere with vertical domains that extend above the stratopause. This is particularly important given that the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling Center is extending the climate and weather hydrologic model of the weather service Global Forecast System (GFS), planning predictions into the upper atmosphere with 128 levels from the current 64 in their Operations. It is the intention to converge the Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM), already in use at the Space Weather Prediction Center, into the GFS Global Spectral Model, under a common modeling framework called the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS). This is in development to streamline the interaction of analysis, forecast, and post-processing systems within NCEP. The NEMS architecture is based on the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) and the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) will adhere to these tenants. We will discuss design and first implementations of our unified GW physics for both orographic and non-orographic waves to address a priority of the Research to Operation initiative to develop the physically-based efficient and adaptable parameterizations for the operational architectures. This paper will present the initial simulations of GFS extended above the stratopause with physics of non-stationary and orographic GWs, highlighting potential improvements of global simulations due to GW impacts in the climate and weather predictions. 
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