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Sunday, 28 June 2015

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5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 28 June 2015


Registration Opens
Location: Mobley Room (Hilton Chicago)

Monday, 29 June 2015

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | top

7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 29 June 2015


Registration Continues Throughout the Conference
Location: Mobley Room (Hilton Chicago)

8:15 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 29 June 2015

Recording files available
Session 1A
Forecast Center Overviews and Model Developments I
Location: Salon A-2 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Andrew L. Molthan, NASA/MSFC; R., Bruce Telfeyan, Air Force Weather Agency
8:15 AM
Welcoming Remarks

8:30 AM
1A.1
The First Holistic Technical Review of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Production Suite: Why Now and How?
William Lapenta, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
1A.2
The NCEP production suite; present and future
Hendrik Tolman, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
1A.3
Improvements in Forecast Skill of the NCEP Production Suite
Glenn H. White, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and A. Chawla, T. Dorian, J. Du, Y. Lin, G. Manikin, S. Saha, P. Shafran, V. Tallapragada, F. Yang, B. Zhou, and Y. Zhu
Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.6 MB)

1A.4
The NCEP Global Forecast System in 2015

9:45 AM
1A.5
Current Activities and Future Directions at the Weather Prediction Center
David R. Novak, NOAA/NWS, College Park, MD
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 1B
Mesoscale Meteorology and Severe Local Storms I: Derechoes and MPEX-Related Studies
Location: Salon A-5 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Steven M. Cavallo, University of Oklahoma; Adam J. Clark, NSSL
8:15 AM
Welcoming Remarks

8:30 AM
1B.1
Evolution of the 30 June 2014 Double Derecho Event in Northern Illinois & Northwest Indiana
Matthew Friedlein, NOAA/NWS, Romeoville, IL; and R. Castro, E. Lenning, A. W. Lyza, and K. R. Knupp
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.6 MB)

8:45 AM
1B.2
Storm Scale Meteorological Processes in the 30 June 2014 Double Derecho Event
Eric Lenning, NOAA/NWS Chicago WFO, Romeoville, IL; and R. Castro, M. Friedlein, A. W. Lyza, and K. R. Knupp
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.6 MB)

9:00 AM
1B.3
The Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX): Overview and Results from a Realtime Ensemble-Based Forecast System
Morris L. Weisman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Romine, C. Schwartz, K. Manning, and C. Evans
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
1B.4
The Influence of Assimilating Targeted Observations upon Ensemble Forecasts of Convection Initiation
Alexandra M. Keclik, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and C. Evans, P. J. Roebber, G. Romine, and R. D. Torn
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
1B.5
Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization's Control on Ensemble Forecasts of Convection Initiation
Bryan M. Burlingame, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and C. Evans, P. J. Roebber, G. Romine, and R. D. Torn
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
1B.6
Applying Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis to WRF Convection Forecasts in the Northern Great Plains
Jeremy D. Berman, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn, M. Weisman, and G. Romine
Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 29 June 2015


Coffee Break
Location: Pre-Function Space (Hilton Chicago)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 29 June 2015

Recording files available
Session 2A
Forecast Center Overviews and Model Developments II
Location: Salon A-2 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Jonathan Porter, AccuWeather, Inc; R., Bruce Telfeyan, Air Force Weather Agency
10:30 AM
2A.1
Ongoing Development of the Hourly-Updated Version of the NAM Forecast System
Jacob R. Carley, IMSG and NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and E. Rogers, B. S. Ferrier, E. Aligo, W. S. Wu, S. Liu, M. Pyle, X. Zhang, and G. DiMego
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM
2A.2
The 2015 Operational Upgrades to the Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR)
Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and S. Weygandt, S. Benjamin, D. C. Dowell, M. Hu, T. Smirnova, J. B. Olson, J. Kenyon, G. Grell, E. P. James, J. M. Brown, and H. Lin
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
2A.3
Operational Global Tropical Cyclone Forecasts from NOAA: Implementation of 2km Resolution HWRF Modeling System for 2015 with Support from HFIP
Vijay Tallapragada, NOAA, College Park, MD; and F. Toepfer, H. L. Tolman, F. D. Marks Jr., and E. Rappaport
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
2A.4
Mesoscale Modeling Development at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction: Near-term plans and future evolution into a high-resolution convective-allowing ensemble system
Eric Rogers, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and G. DiMego, E. Aligo, J. Carley, J. Du, B. Ferrier, Z. Janjic, G. Manikin, M. Pyle, W. S. Wu, S. G. Benjamin, C. Alexander, and M. Hu
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
2A.5
Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system at NCEP: recent development and future transition
Jun Du, EMC/NCEP/NOAA, College Park, MD; and G. DiMego, D. Jovic, B. Ferrier, B. Yang, and B. Zhou
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (686.0 kB)

11:45 AM
2A.6
The 2015 Upgrade of NCEP's Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)
Dingchen Hou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu, X. Zhou, R. Wobus, J. Peng, Y. Luo, and B. Cui
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 2B
Mesoscale Meteorology and Severe Local Storms II: Case Studies
Location: Salon A-5 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Shawn M. Milrad, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University; Steven M. Cavallo, University of Oklahoma
10:30 AM
2B.1
Origin of Vertical Vorticity in Misocyclones along a Tornadic Narrow Cold Frontal Rainband in the United Kingdom
Kelsey Mulder, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom; and D. M. Schultz
Recorded Presentation

2B.2
An Observational Study of a Complex Tornadic Storm in South Dakota on 18 June 2014

10:45 AM
2B.2A
An Examination of Significant Tornadoes Across the High Plains
Sam Ng, Metropolitan State University of Denver, Denver, CO; and T. Croan
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
2B.3
Radar analysis of St. Louis urban thunderstorm initiation
Luke Bard, Illinois State Water Survey/Prairie Research Institute/University of Illinois, Champaign, IL; and D. A. R. Kristovich and L. A. Stoecker
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
2B.4
The Role of Elevated Thunderstorms in the Poleward Progression of Warm Fronts
Joshua S. Kastman, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
2B.5
Storm-scale Data Assimilation and Ensemble Forecasts of the 31 May 2013 Oklahoma Tornado and Flash Flood Event
Nusrat Yussouf, CIMMS/OU/NSSL, Norman, OK; and L. J. Wicker
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
2B.6
Observations and Simulations of Diurnal Coastal Low-Level Jets during the IMPOWR Field Experiment
Matthew J. Sienkiewicz, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS/WDTD, Norman, OK; and B. A. Colle
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:00 PM: Monday, 29 June 2015

Recording files available
Joint Panel Discussion 1
NOAA Model Development Forum
Location: Salon A-2 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Moderator: Hendrik L. Tolman, NOAA/NWS/NCEP

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 29 June 2015


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Monday, 29 June 2015

Recording files available
Session 3A
Forecast Center Overviews and Model Developments III
Location: Salon A-2 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Jonathan Porter, AccuWeather, Inc; R., Bruce Telfeyan, Air Force Weather Agency
1:30 PM
3A.1
The ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System: recent progress and performance in global medium-range weather forecasts
David S. Richardson, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
3A.2
557th Weather Wing -- Delivering Decision Superiority to the Warfighter
Jeffrey G. Cunningham, United States Air Force, Offutt AFB, NE; and C. S. Wohlwend

2:15 PM
3A.3
Current and Future Numerical Weather Prediction in the U.S. Navy
Melinda S. Peng, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Okon
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
3A.4
Overview of the Navy's Coupled Mesoscale Modeling System
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. M. Amerault, S. Chen, S. Gabersek, T. Haack, E. A. Hendricks, R. M. Hodur, T. Holt, X. Hong, Q. Jiang, H. Jin, Y. Jin, W. Komaromi, J. Moskaitis, J. Nachamkin, P. A. Reinecke, J. Schmidt, D. Tyndall, K. Viner, S. Wang, and L. Xu
Recorded Presentation

3A.5
Recent Developments to the COAMPS-TC Dynamic Initialization Schemes

2:45 PM
3A.5A
Evaluation of NCEP Atmospheric Models for Driving Air Quality Prediction
Jeff McQueen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and J. Huang, P. Shafran, E. Rogers, M. Pondeca, G. DiMego, and I. Stajner
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM
3A.6
The National Earth System Prediction Capability Program
Jessie C. Carman, OAR, Silver Spring, MD; and D. P. Eleuterio, D. McCarren, F. Toepfer, S. Sandgathe, K. Lutz, and K. Keith
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
3A.7
Overview of The Weather Company's Principal Forecasting Methodologies
Peter P. Neilley, The Weather Company, Atlanta, GA; and B. Rose, J. P. Koval, T. Hutchinson, P. Bayer, J. McDonald, J. Mathews, W. Cassanova, D. Eck, N. McGillis, S. Tanner, and E. Floehr
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 3B
Mesoscale Meteorology and Severe Local Storms III: Longer-Term Studies
Location: Salon A-5 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Shawn M. Milrad, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University; Adam J. Clark, NSSL
1:30 PM
3B.1
Real-Time Evaluation of Extended Guidance Produced by a Global Convection-Permitting Model
William C. Skamarock, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. J. Wicker, A. J. Clark, J. B. Klemp, and S. Cavallo
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
3B.2
A Modeling Study of a Low-Level Jet Along the Yun-Gui Plateau in South China
Hong-Bo Liu, LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and M. Y. He, B. Wang, and D. L. Zhang
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
3B.3
The Impact of Different Microphysics and Boundary Layer Parameterization on Storm-Scale Diagnostics in Convection-Allowing Models
Philip N. Schumacher, NOAA/NWS, Sioux Falls, SD; and J. M. Boustead
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
3B.4
Applications for a CONUS-wide Multi-Radar, Multi-Sensor Database
Kiel L. Ortega, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. Correia Jr. and T. M. Smith
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
3B.5
WRF-HAILCAST Hail Forecasting System Improvements
Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER, Offutt AFB, NE; and A. J. Clark
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
3B.6
The Interaction between QLCSs and Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layers: A Process Study
Kelly Lombardo, University of Connecticut, Groton, CT
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM
3B.7
Climatology and Case Studies of Northeast Severe Convection with Low-Predictive Skill
Matthew Vaughan, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and B. Tang and L. F. Bosart
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
3B.8
Extreme Cases of Vertically Integrated Moisture Flux Convergence and their Relationship to Precipitation in the US Midwest
Laura Twidle, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and J. Gyakum and E. Atallah
Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 29 June 2015


Coffee Break
Location: Hilton Chicago

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 29 June 2015

Recording files available
Session 4A
Forecast Center Overviews and Model Developments IV
Location: Salon A-2 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Kelly M. Mahoney, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado; Sam Ng, Metropolitan State University of Denver
4:00 PM
4A.1
Numerical Weather Prediction at the Met Office: Recent Progress and Future Direction
Nigel Roberts, Met Office, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom
Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM
4A.2
Physics upgrades to NWS wave modeling systems
Arun Chawla, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and H. Alves, A. Van der Westhuysen, R. Padilla, R. Grumbine, D. Spindler, Y. Chao, and V. Gerald
Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM
4A.3
Challenges and Opportunities in Modeling of the Global Atmosphere
Zavisa Janjic, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and R. Vasic
Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM
4A.4
Enhanced multi-model ensembles with the ESRL FIM-HYCOM coupled model at both NWP and subseasonal forecast time scales
Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and S. Sun, R. Bleck, H. Li, G. Grell, J. Brown, I. Jankov, and J. W. Bao
Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM
4A.5
Evaluating Computational Performance for the Weather Service's Next Generation Global Prediction System
John Michalakes, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and M. W. Govett, R. Benson, T. Black, M. Duda, T. Henderson, P. Madden, G. Mozdzynski, P. A. Reinecke, W. C. Skamarock, and R. Vasic
Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM
4A.6
Are Numerical Weather Prediction Models Getting Better?
Clifford F. Mass, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. Ovens
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 4B
Tropical Weather
Location: Salon A-5 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Michael J. Brennan, NHC
4:00 PM
4B.1
Seasonal Influences Upon and Long-Term Trends in the Length of the Atlantic Hurricane Season
Juliana M. Karloski, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and C. Evans
Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM
4B.2
A Multiple Model Examination of the Predictability of Hurricane Sandy (2012) and Hurricane Edouard (2014)
Christopher Melhauser, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and F. Zhang
Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM
4B.3
Orographic Effects on Track Deflection and Structure Change of an Idealized Tropical Cyclone Passing over a Mesoscale Mountain Range
Yuh-Lang Lin, North Carolina A&T State University, Greensboro, NC; and S. H. Chen and L. Liu
Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM
4B.4
Examining Tropical Cyclone – MJO Interactions using Adjoint Diagnostics
Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Doyle and X. Hong
Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM
4B.5
Convective initiation sensitivity to the presence of an oceanic barrier layer
Sue Chen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Schmidt, M. Flatau, J. G. Richman, and T. Jensen
Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM
4B.6
Are there benefits of ocean coupling for tropical cyclone forecasts?
Hyun-Sook Kim, EMC, College Park, MD; and V. Tallapragada and A. Mehra
Recorded Presentation

Tuesday, 30 June 2015

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | top

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 30 June 2015

Recording files available
Session 5A
Advances in the Assimilation of Observations I
Location: Salon A-2 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Bradley T. Zavodsky, NASA/MSFC; Daryl T. Kleist, University of Maryland
8:00 AM
5A.1
Benefits from the Assimilation of Rapid-Scan Phased Array Radar Data for Storm-scale NWP: Optimal Configurations and Best Strategies
Louis J. Wicker, NSSL/NOAA, Norman, OK; and C. K. Potvin and P. Skinner
Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM
5A.2
Impact of Assimilating GOES-R Infrared Brightness Temperatures on the Forecast of Tropical Cyclones
Masashi Minamide, Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA; and F. Zhang and E. Clothiaux
Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM
5A.3
Investigating the Impact of RapidSCAT in the GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System
Will McCarty, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and O. Reale, S. Bloom, M. Cordero-Fuentes, E. McGrath-Spangler, and D. Merkova
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
5A.4
The impact of assimilating CYGNSS Data on Tropical Cyclone Analyses and Forecasts in a Regional OSSE Framework
Brian D. McNoldy, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. Annane, J. Delgado, L. Bucci, R. Atlas, and S. J. Majumdar
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
5A.5
Indirect Impact of Ozone Assimilation using the Grid-point Statistical Interpolation Data Assimilation System for Regional Applications
Kathryn M. Newman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Hu, H. Shao, and C. L. Williams
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
5A.6
On the Impact of UAS Observations on High-Resolution Mesoscale Forecasts
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and D. D. Flagg, T. Holt, C. Amerault, D. Geiszler, T. Haack, J. Nachamkin, P. Pauley, and D. Tyndall
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
5A.7
The Assimilation of Smartphone Pressures for Mesoscale Prediction
Clifford F. Mass, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and L. E. Madaus and C. McNicholas
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
5A.8
Connected Vehicles: Filling in the Observation Gap for Data Assimilation
Amanda R. S. Anderson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. A. Lee, S. D. Drobot, G. Weiner, P. A. Pisano, and L. Sturges
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 5B
Winter Weather: Recent Storms and Lake-Effect Snowfall
Location: Salon A-5 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Martin A. Baxter, Central Michigan University; Sam Ng, Metropolitan State University of Denver
8:00 AM
5B.1
Extreme Weather East of the Rockies During Winter 2014–2015
Lance F. Bosart, SUNY/University at Albany, Albany, NY
Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM
5B.2
A Comparison of the Winters of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015
Eyad H. Atallah, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and J. Gyakum
Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM
5B.3
A look at deterministic model behavior for the 2015 month of BIG snows in the Northeast
Ed Szoke, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin, M. Fiorino, J. M. Brown, and B. D. Jamison
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
5B.4
Necessary Tools for Forecasting a Historic Lake Effect Snow Event for 17-21 November 2014
David Church, NOAA/NWS, Buffalo, NY; and D. Zaff
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
5B.5
WRF-errific Adventures with November Snowfall: Modeling of Early Season Snow Events in the Lake Michigan Region
Kevin H. Goebbert, Valparaiso Univ, Valparaiso, IN; and R. Connelly and C. Clark
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
5B.6
Historic Buffalo Lake Effect Snowstorm November 18-19, 2014: A Preliminary Look at the Sharp Northern Gradient in Snowfall
David Church, NOAA/NWS, Buffalo, NY
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
5B.7
Short Range Probabilistic Winter Precipitation Forecasts at the Weather Prediction Center - Verification and Myth-Busting!
Anthony R. Fracasso, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and K. F. Brill, M. Bodner, and D. Novak
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
5B.8
Probabilistic medium range snow and ice forecasting at the Weather Prediction Center
Brendon Rubin-Oster, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and M. J. Bodner
Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 30 June 2015


Coffee Break
Location: Hilton Chicago

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 30 June 2015

Recording files available
Session 6B
Winter Weather and Heavy Precipitation Events
Location: Salon A-5 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Sam Ng, Metropolitan State University of Denver; Martin A. Baxter, Central Michigan University
10:30 AM
6B.1
The dependence of QPF on the choice of boundary- and surface-layer parameterization for a lake-effect snowstorm
Robert Conrick, Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, IN; and H. D. Reeves and S. Zhong
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM
6B.2
Determining Precipitation Type from Maximum Temperature in the Lower Atmosphere
Marc Chenard, NOAA/NWSFO, Sioux Falls, SD; and P. N. Schumacher and H. D. Reeves
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
6B.3
Discrimination between winter precipitation types based on spectral-bin microphysical modeling
Heather D. Reeves, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and A. Ryzhkov and J. Krause
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
6B.4
Atmospheric rivers and the connection to heavy rainfall events in the southeastern U.S. compared to the U.S. West Coast
Kelly M. Mahoney, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and D. L. Jackson, G. Wick, M. Hughes, P. J. Neiman, E. Sukovich, L. Darby, R. Cifelli, and A. B. White
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
6B.5
High Resolution Simulations of an Extreme Precipitation Event over Long Island on 13 August 2014
Nicholas Leonardo, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
6B.6
A High Resolution Ensemble-Based Investigation into the Long Island Flash Flood on 13 August 2014
Philippe P. Papin, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and N. P. Bassill, B. J. Moore, R. D. Torn, and L. F. Bosart
Recorded Presentation

10:30 AM-12:15 PM: Tuesday, 30 June 2015

Recording files available
Session 6A
Advances in the Assimilation of Observations II
Location: Salon A-2 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah; Will McCarty, NASA/GSFC
10:30 AM
6A.1
Near-Surface Wind Data Assimilation using a Geo-Statistical Observation Operator – Results from Observing System Experiments
Joël Bédard, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM), Montréal, QC, Canada; and S. Laroche and P. Gauthier
Recorded Presentation

Handout (2.9 MB)

10:45 AM
6A.2
The Impact of Supplemental Observations on the Intensity and Structure of Tropical Cyclones in the NCEP Hybrid GSI Scheme
Michael J. Brennan, NHC, Miami, FL; and D. T. Kleist, S. J. Majumdar, and K. L. Howard
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
6A.3
Hurricane Initialization in HWRF model
Qingfu Liu, EMC, College Park, MD; and B. Zhang, M. Tong, V. Tallapragada, and F. Weng
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
6A.4
Assimilation of SEVIRI Radiance Data in NCEP NAMRR System
Xiaoyan Zhang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and A. Collard, J. Carley, and G. DiMego
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
6A.5
Observation space localization for assimilation of satellite radiances
Lili Lei, University of Colorado/CIRES, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
6A.6
The Continued Improvement of NCEP's RTMA/URMA System and Benefits of Field Interaction toward the 2015 operational upgrades
Steven Levine, EMC, College Park, MD; and M. Pondeca, J. Carley, Y. Lin, R. Yang, A. M. Gibbs, Y. Zhu, R. J. Purser, D. F. Parrish, D. Myrick, J. McQueen, D. B. Radell, and G. DiMego
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM
AMS President Dr. Sandy MacDonald

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 30 June 2015


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 30 June 2015

Recording files available
Session 7A
Data Assimilation Techniques
Location: Salon A-2 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Will McCarty, NASA/GSFC; Bradley T. Zavodsky, NASA/MSFC
1:30 PM
7A.1
An Ensemble Kalman Filter with Four-Dimensional Incremental Analysis Update to data assimilation
Lili Lei, University of Colorado/CIRES, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
7A.2
Comparison of hybrid four-dimensional data assimilation methods with and without an adjoint model for limited-area convection-permitting weather prediction: E4DVar vs. 4DEnVar
Michael Ying, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and J. Poterjoy and F. Zhang
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
7A.3
Hybrid 4D EnVar for the NCEP GFS: Implementation plans and potential for outer loops
Daryl T. Kleist, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and R. B. Mahajan, C. Thomas, J. C. Derber, and R. Treadon
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
7A.4
Time-Expanded Sampling for Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation Applied to Conventional and Satellite Observations
Qingyun Zhao, NRL, Monterey, CA; and Q. Xu, Y. Jin, J. McLay, and C. Reynolds

Handout (5.4 MB)

2:30 PM
7A.5
Comparison of 3-km analyses and forecasts from WRF-LETKF and WRF-EAKF ensembles
Corey K. Potvin, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. M. Wheatley, K. H. Knopfmeier, L. J. Wicker, and T. E. Ladwig
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
7A.6
Influence of background error covariances on assimilating hurricane inner-core observations in HWRF nested domains with the GSI hybrid data assimilation system
Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and S. Zhang, M. Tong, and V. Tallapragada
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM
7A.7
Initial Test of GSI 3DVAR-Ensemble Hybrid Data Assimilation for Rapid Refresh with Regional Ensembles
Ming Hu, NOAA/ESRL/Global Systems Division, Boulder, CO; and S. Weygandt, D. C. Dowell, S. G. Benjamin, J. Whitaker, and C. R. Alexander
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
7A.8
Application of a multigrid correlation algorithm to anisotropic correlations used by the NCEP Real TIme Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA)
David F. Parrish, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 7B
Evolving Role of the Forecaster
Location: Salon A-5 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Martin A. Baxter, Central Michigan University; Gail Hartfield, NOAA/NWS
7B.1
The National Blend of Models Project: An update

1:30 PM
7B.1A
NWP Training Looking Forward: National Blender and Numerical Guidance
William R. Bua, UCAR/COMET, College Park, MD; and G. Byrd

1:45 PM
7B.2
Research to Operations in the Hazardous Weather Testbed: The Long View
John S. Kain, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. J. Weiss, I. L. Jirak, A. J. Clark, and M. C. Coniglio
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
7B.3
Overview of the 2015 NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment
Adam J. Clark, NSSL, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak, S. J. Weiss, J. S. Kain, M. C. Coniglio, A. R. Dean, K. H. Knopfmeier, J. Correia Jr., B. L. Twiest, C. J. Melick, G. W. Carbin, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, and M. Xue
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
7B.4
Progress Over the Last Decade in the Development and Use of Convection-Allowing Models in Operational Severe Weather Prediction
Steven J. Weiss, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak, C. J. Melick, J. S. Kain, A. J. Clark, M. C. Coniglio, M. Xue, F. Kong, M. Pyle, E. Rogers, B. Ferrier, E. Aligo, J. R. Carley, G. DiMego, S. G. Benjamin, C. R. Alexander, and M. Weisman
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
7B.5
A Human Over the Loop Forecast Paradigm at The Weather Company (TWC)
Bruce Rose, The Weather Channel, Atlanta, GA; and D. Eck, L. Brown, A. Tupaj, J. Lidrbauch, P. Bayer, L. Merritt, and D. Winn
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (624.6 kB)

7B.6
Culture Change: Evolution of the Forecast Process

2:45 PM
Discussion

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 30 June 2015


Coffee Break

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 30 June 2015


Joint Poster Session 1
Poster Session I
Location: Salon A-3 & A-4 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Sam Ng, Metropolitan State University of Denver; Andrew L. Molthan, NASA/MSFC
1
A Mathematical “Derivation + Speculation”: Accurate Newton's Displacement and the Exact Quasi-Lagrangian Forecast Equation in Hydrodynamics
Xuzan Gu Sr., China Meteorological Administration , Wuhan, China, Wuhan, Hubei, China

2
Towards the improvement of surface forecasting in the NCEP GFS
Helin Wei, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and M. Ek, J. Meng, and W. Zheng

3
Tropical Cyclogenesis Composites in the NCEP GFS Model
John Cangialosi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and T. B. Kimberlain, M. J. Brennan, and A. B. Penny

4
Evaluation of Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) Data and Synoptic Analysis of a Case Study For Flash Flood in Gökçeada/Turkey
Serhan Yesilkoy, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey; and A. Oztopal

Handout (1.9 MB)

5
Effects of Impinging Location and Angle of an Idealized Tropical Cyclone on a Long Mountain Range
Liping Liu, North Carolina A&T State University, Greensboro, NC; and Y. L. Lin and S. H. Chen

6
Assimilation of GOES-R ABI satellite and WSR-88D radar observations during a convection-resolving OSSE
Rebecca M. Cintineo, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. A. Otkin, T. A. Jones, S. Koch, L. J. Wicker, and D. J. Stensrud

7
Multi-Scale Data Assimilation of the June 13, 2010 Tornadic Supercell Storm Environment
Therese Ladwig, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and G. Romine, D. C. Dowell, L. J. Wicker, and X. Wang

8
Reconstruction of Gaps in Flow Series Using Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and Multi-channel SSA (M-SSA)
Kübra Agaç, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey; and Ö. Baydaro and K. Koçak

Handout (1.3 MB)

9
Value of Assimilating TAMDAR Observations
Brian P. Reen, U.S. Army Research Laboratory, Adelphi, MD; and R. E. Dumais Jr.

10
Assimilating infrared brightness temperatures using an ensemble data assimilation system and a cloud-dependent bias correction scheme
Jason Otkin, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI; and A. Perianez, A. Schomburg, F. Harnisch, R. Faulwetter, H. Reich, C. Schraff, and R. Potthast

11
A Severe Weather QuickOSSE Examining the Impact of Super Constellations of GPS Radio Occultation Satellites
S. Mark Leidner, AER, Norman, OK; and T. Nehrkorn, J. M. Henderson, M. Mountain, and T. P. Yunck

Handout (2.6 MB)

Poster 12 has been moved. New paper number 2B.2A

13
Forecasting outbreak type and severity using simulated fields of severe weather diagnostic variables

14
Cross Season Memory of Ocean-Atmosphere System
Zhiyuan Liu, Tokio Marine Technologies, Duluth, GA
Manuscript (602.8 kB)

Wednesday, 1 July 2015

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | top

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 1 July 2015

Recording files available
Session 8A
Data Assimilation Studies and Methods at Regional to Global Scales
Location: Salon A-2 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS; Will McCarty, NASA/GSFC
8:00 AM
8A.1
Advancing the GSD Cloud and Precipitation Hydrometeor Analysis Towards Hybrid Ensemble-Variational Data Assimilation
Therese Ladwig, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and M. Hu, S. Weygandt, S. G. Benjamin, C. Alexander, and D. C. Dowell
Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM
8A.2
Application of mixed-layer theory to satellite stratocumulus cloud assimilation in WRF
Handa Yang, University of California, La Jolla, CA; and J. Kleissl
Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM
8A.3
Impact of GPS RO Data on the Prediction of Tropical Cyclogenesis
Ying-Hwa Kuo, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Y. Chen
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
8A.4
A Preliminary Sensitivity Study In Association With The Upcoming New York State Mesonet
Nick P. Bassill, SUNY at Albany, Albany, NY
Recorded Presentation

8A.5
Tropical cyclone inner-core data assimilation study using the GSI-based hybrid data assimilation system

9:15 AM
8A.6
Assimilation of Observations into a NAVGEM Global Analysis and Multiple COAMPS Limited Area Analyses by a Single Data Assimilation Process
Michael A. Herrera, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and C. Bishop, T. R. Holt, K. W. Hoppel, D. D. Kuhl, S. Rainwater, I. Szunyogh, Q. Zhao, and A. Brainard
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
8A.7
Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter on Fire Weather Days to Explore Model Error over the Northeast United States
Michael J. Erickson, SUNY/Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
8A.8
Evaluating solar energy NWP forecasts during major dust aerosol events using MACC renalysis with WRF
Surya Karthik Mukkavilli, CSIRO & UNSW, Canberra & Sydney, ACT/NSW, Australia; and A. Troccoli, M. J. Kay, and R. Taylor
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 8B
New Ensemble Generation and Probabilistic Forecasting Techniques I
Location: Salon A-5 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Adam J. Clark, NSSL; Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER
8:00 AM
8B.1
Exploring probabilistic precipitation and hydrologic forecasts for a flash flood event
Kelly M. Mahoney, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and D. J. Gochis, W. Yu, and K. Sampson
Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM
8B.2
Generating Skillful and Reliable Probabilistic Forecasts for Locally Extreme Rainfall
Gregory R. Herman, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher
Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM
8B.3
Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts from Convection-Allowing Models and Ensembles
Nigel Roberts, Met Office, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
8B.4
Progress in storm-scale ensemble forecast system design at NCAR
Glen Romine, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Schwartz, R. A. Sobash, and K. Fossell
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
8B.5
The Use of Ensemble-Based Sensitivity with Observations to Improve Predictability of Severe Convective Events
Brian C. Ancell, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and A. Hill and B. Burghardt
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
8B.6
Using storm surrogates to produce probabilistic severe weather forecasts from an EnKF-based ensemble forecasting system
Ryan A. Sobash, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. S. Romine, M. L. Weisman, C. S. Schwartz, and K. R. Fossell
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
8B.7
Bridging the Gap between Research and Operations using the Mesoscale Model Evaluation Testbed (MMET)
Tracy J. Hertneky, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Harrold and J. K. Wolff
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
8B.8
Butterflies and Bow Echoes
John Lawson, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr. and M. J. Krocak
Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 1 July 2015


Coffee Break
Location: Hilton Chicago

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 1 July 2015

Recording files available
Session 9A
Modeling at Increased Spatial and Temporal Resolution I
Location: Salon A-2 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Steven Albers, NOAA/ERL/GSD; Bradley T. Zavodsky, NASA/MSFC
9A.1 has been moved. New paper number is 3A.5A

10:30 AM
9A.2
Tropical Cyclone Simulations Using Adaptive Mesh Refinement
Eric A. Hendricks, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Kopera and F. X. Giraldo
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM
9A.3
The influences of model resolution to TC track and intensity prediction of GRAPES_TYM
Suhong Ma, NWPD/NMC/Beijing, Beijing, China
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
9A.4
Variable-Resolution Tropical Cyclone Prediction using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)
C. A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. C. Skamarock, D. Ahijevych, and T. J. Galarneau Jr.
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
9A.5
Land Surface Modeling and Data Assimilation at NASA/SPoRT for Improved Situational Awareness and Local Model Initialization
Bradley T. Zavodsky, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and J. L. Case, C. B. Blankenship, and K. D. White
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
9A.6
Description of the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for ensembles
Kent H. Knopfmeier, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. M. Wheatley, T. A. Jones, C. D. Karstens, and G. J. Creager
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
9A.7
Storm-scale data assimilation and ensemble forecasting with the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for ensembles
Dustan M. Wheatley, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. H. Knopfmeier, T. A. Jones, and G. J. Creager
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 9B
New Ensemble Generation and Probabilistic Forecasting Techniques II
Location: Salon A-5 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: David B. Radell, NOAA/NWS; Sam Ng, Metropolitan State University of Denver
10:30 AM
9B.1
Investigating a New Stochastic Physics Suite for Use in the NCEP Global Ensemble
Walter Kolczynski Jr., EMC, College Park, MD; and P. Pegion, T. Hamill, J. S. Whitaker, D. Hou, Y. Zhu, and X. Zhou
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM
9B.2
Investigation with Increased Horizontal Resolution and Ensemble Size for Future GEFS
Xiaqiong Zhou, IMSG at EMC, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu and W. Li
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
9B.3
Probabilistic and Deterministic Forecasting using Evolutionary Program Ensembles
Paul J. Roebber, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
9B.4
Representing model uncertainty in the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)
Philip Pegion, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. Whitaker, T. Hamill, and W. Kolczynski Jr.
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
9B.5
Real-time Probabilistic Hurricane Prediction using HWRF based Ensemble Prediction System and Joint Multi-Model Ensemble
Zhan Zhang, EMC, College Park, MD; and V. Tallapragada, C. Kieu, S. Trahan, and W. Wang
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (265.1 kB)

11:45 AM
9B.6
Probabilistic Verification of Global and Mesoscale Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclogenesis
Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and R. D. Torn
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM
AMS President Dr. Sandy MacDonald

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 1 July 2015


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Wednesday, 1 July 2015

Recording files available
Session 10A
Ensemble Techniques and Communication of Forecast Uncertainty
Location: Salon A-2 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Alexander O. Tardy, NOAA/NWS; Martin A. Baxter, Central Michigan University
1:30 PM
10A.1
Applying Fuzzy Clustering Analysis to Assess Uncertainty and Model Performance in Forecasting Cool Season High-impact Weather over the U.S. East Coast
Minghua Zheng, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and E. K. M. Chang and B. A. Colle
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
10A.2
A Study from NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System Extend Forecast
Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and M. Peña, D. Hou, X. Zhou, W. Li, and Q. Zhang
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
10A.3
A New Method for the Characterization and Verification of Local Spatial Predictability for Convective Scale Ensembles
Seonaid R. A. Dey, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and R. Plant, N. Roberts, and S. Migliorini
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
10A.4
Using Anomalies to Forecast High Impact Events
David Beachler, NOAA/NWSFO, Romeoville, IL; and R. Grumm
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
10A.5
NWS Efforts to Improve Forecasting and Messaging of Uncertainty
Eli Jacks, NOAA/NWS Forecast Services Division, Silver Spring, MD; and D. R. Novak
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
10A.6
Verification Results from the Northeast Probabilistic Storm Total Snowfall Forecast Experiment During Winter of 2014-2015
David B. Radell, NOAA/NWS, Bohemia, NY; and J. Watson, R. Watling, S. M. Zubrick, A. M. Cope, J. S. Tongue, and J. W. Dellicarpini
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM
Discussion

Recording files available
Session 10B
Modeling at Increased Spatial and Temporal Resolution II
Location: Salon A-5 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Bradley T. Zavodsky, NASA/MSFC; Steven J. Weiss, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC
1:30 PM
10B.1
What are the benefits for convection of increasing the horizontal resolution of convection permitting NWP models?
Humphrey W. Lean, Met Office, Reading, U.K.; and K. E. Hanley, J. Nicol, and C. Halliwell
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
10B.2
Sensitivity of ice supersaturated region's characteristics to spatial resolution in an idealized squall line scenario
Minghui Diao, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. B. Jensen, G. H. Bryan, H. Morrison, and D. P. Stern
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
10B.3
Evaluation of WRF Simulated Multi-bands over the Northeast U.S. Using Varied Initial Conditions and Physics
Sara A. Ganetis, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
10B.4
Sensitivity of Simulated Sea Breezes to Initial Conditions
Kelly Lombardo, University of Connecticut, Groton, CT; and E. Sinksy, Y. Jia, M. Whitney, and J. B. Edson
Recorded Presentation

10B.5
An Ultra-High Resolution Sailing Forecast System for San Francisco Bay

2:30 PM
10B.5A
Sensitivity of idealized supercell simulations to horizontal grid spacing: Implications for Warn-on-Forecast
Corey K. Potvin, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. L. Flora

2:45 PM
10B.6
Weather and All-Sky Imagery - A Comparison of Observed and Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) Simulated Clouds
Steve Albers, NOAA & CIRA, Boulder, CO; and K. Holub, Y. Xie, H. Jiang, J. Zhou, and Z. Toth

Handout (16.2 MB)

3:00 PM
10B.7
Improving High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Forecasts of Low-Level Winds in the Columbia River Basin for Wind Energy Applications
John M. Brown, NOAA-Earth System Research Lab, Boulder, CO; and J. Kenyon, J. Olson, D. Dowell, and C. Alexander
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
10B.8
Further improvements to US Warm-season diurnal cycle of precipitation in very high-resolution GFDL HiRAM: Nesting and Microphysics
Lucas M. Harris, NOAA/OAR/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and S. J. Lin
Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 1 July 2015


Coffee Break

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 1 July 2015

Recording files available
Session 11A
Dynamics of Mid and High-Latitude Weather
Location: Salon A-2 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Gail Hartfield, NOAA/NWS; Sam Ng, Metropolitan State University of Denver
4:00 PM
11A.1
Extreme Weather Events Originating from Tropopause Polar Vortex Interactions with the North Atlantic Jet Stream
Kevin A. Biernat, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and D. Keyser
Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM
11A.2
Cold-season extreme baroclinic growth processes over the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins
John R. Gyakum, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and B. Ronalds
Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM
11A.3
Identifying synoptic-scale sources of short-term (3-10 day) zonal available potential energy generation
Kevin A. Bowley, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and J. R. Gyakum and E. H. Atallah
Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM
11A.4
On the relationship between North Atlantic baroclinic growth rate regimes and surface cyclogenesis
Bryn Ronalds, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and J. R. Gyakum and E. Atallah
Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM
11A.5
Sensitivity and Predictability of High-Impact Extratropical Cyclones
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds, C. Amerault, and P. A. Reinecke
Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM
11A.6
Object and Process Verification in MPAS-A of Tropopause Polar Vortices
Nicholas Szapiro, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. Cavallo and W. C. Skamarock
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 11B
New or Improved Parameterizations
Location: Salon A-5 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER; Stanley G. Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL/GSD
4:00 PM
11B.1
Integrating Unified Gravity Wave Physics into the Next Generation Global Prediction System: First Results in the Global Forecast System
Jordan C. Alpert, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and V. Yudin, T. J. Fuller-Rowell, and R. A. Akmaev
Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM
11B.2
An Eddy-Diffusivity Mass-Flux (EDMF) Boundary Layer Parameterization Combined with a Higher-Order Turbulence Closure Model in the NCEP GFS
Jongil Han, SRG at NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD

Handout (911.1 kB)

4:30 PM
11B.3
Improving Near-Surface Temperature Forecasts in the NCEP Global Forecast System
Weizhong Zheng, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and M. B. Ek, H. Wei, and J. Meng
Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM
11B.4
Recent Improvements in Subgrid-Scale Cloud Paramaterizations in the Rapid Refresh and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh
Jaymes Kenyon, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. B. Olson, J. M. Brown, G. Thompson, G. Grell, and S. R. Freitas
Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM
11B.5
Unified Gravity Wave Physics in the NOAA Environmental Modeling System: Improving Predictions of Whole Atmosphere Model across the Stratopause
Valery Yudin, Colorado University, Boulder, CO; and R. A. Akmaev, J. C. Alpert, T. J. Fuller-Rowell, and M. Iredell
Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM
11B.6
New developments in RAP/HRRR Model Physical Parameterizations: MYNN-Eddy Diffusivity/Mass-Flux PBL Scheme with a Mixing Length Revision
Joseph B. Olson, NOAA/CIRES, Boulder, CO; and J. Kenyon, J. M. Brown, W. M. Angevine, G. Grell, and S. Freitas
Recorded Presentation

Thursday, 2 July 2015

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | top

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Thursday, 2 July 2015

Recording files available
Session 12A
Forecast Verification Methods and Performance I: Model Evaluation
Location: Salon A-2 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Jennifer E. Tate, North Carolina State University; Alexander O. Tardy, NOAA/NWS
8:00 AM
12A.1
Using Initial State and Forecast Temporal Variability to Evaluate Model Behavior
Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and E. A. Satterfield and C. H. Bishop
Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM
12A.2
Evaluation of Cool-Season Extratropical Cyclones in a Multi-Model Ensemble for Eastern North America and the Western Atlantic Ocean
Nathan G. Korfe, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle
Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM
12A.3
Diagnosing systematic numerical weather prediction model bias from thermodynamic tendencies in short-term forecasts
Steven M. Cavallo, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. Berner and C. Snyder
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
12A.4
An Overview of Grid-to-Grid Verification at Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of NCEP
Binbin Zhou, EMC, College Park, MD; and P. Shafran, Y. Lin, F. Yang, Y. Zhu, Y. Mao, and G. DiMago
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
12A.5
The Environmental Modeling Center's Model Evaluation Group
Glenn H. White, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and G. Manikin and C. Guastini
Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.9 MB)

9:15 AM
12A.6
Evaluating the Limits of Predictability in the ECMWF
Samuel P. Lillo, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. Parsons
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
12A.7
Verification for the High Impact Weather Prediction Project (HIWPP) and other verification work to support model development within ESRL/GSD
Stephen S. Weygandt, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. A. Hamilton, X. Wei, W. R. Moninger, B. Strong, and T. Schneider
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
12A.8
Use of User-Defined Metrics for Evaluating Solar Forecasts
Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and S. E. Haupt, B. G. Brown, T. L. Fowler, J. H. Gotway, J. Prestopnik, J. K. Lazo, and S. D. Drobot

Recording files available
Session 12B
Model Development and Application
Location: Salon A-5 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Jordan C. Alpert, NOAA/NWS/NCEP; Jonathan Porter, AccuWeather, Inc
8:00 AM
12B.1
Use of a Road Surface Model within the National Weather Service
Jonathan J. Rutz, NOAA/NWS, Salt Lake City, Utah; and C. Kahler
Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM
12B.2
Impacts of physics, resolution and nesting on hurricane simulation with regional NMMB
Bin Liu, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and W. Wang, S. Trahan, Z. Zhang, Q. Liu, L. Zhu, J. Sippel, D. Sheinin, K. Wu, and V. Tallapragada
Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM
12B.3
Atmospheric Analysis Uncertainties over the Antarctic Region using an EnKF Method with the AMPS Model
Christopher P. Riedel, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. Cavallo
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
12B.4
Assessment of the Asymmetric Convective Model V2 (ACM2) planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme and the Pleim-Xiu surface schemes within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) system
Michelle Harrold, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Wolff, M. Xu, and T. J. Hertneky
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
12B.5
Improving High-Resolution Weather Forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with an Improved Kain-Fritsch Scheme
Yue Zheng, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and K. Alapaty, J. A. Herwehe, A. Del Genio, and D. Niyogi
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
12B.6
The use of HWRF ensemble versus global ensemble in GSI hybrid analysis for inner-core data assimilation
Mingjing Tong, IMSG, College Park, MD; and S. Trahan, V. Tallapragada, and Z. Zhang
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
12B.7
0-6 hour Weather Forecast Guidance at The Weather Company
Todd Hutchinson, The Weather Company, Andover, MA; and J. Matthews, R. Turkington, S. Honey, P. Bayer, and J. P. Koval
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
12B.8
1 - 15 Day Weather Forecast Guidance at The Weather Company
Joseph P. Koval, The Weather Company, Atlanta, GA; and B. Rose, P. Neilley, P. Bayer, J. McDonald, B. Cassanova, D. Winn, E. Yang, and J. Celenza
Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 2 July 2015


Coffee Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 2 July 2015

Recording files available
Session 13A
Forecast Verification Methods and Performance II: Precipitation and Microphysics
Location: Salon A-2 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/Research Applications Laboratory; Alexander O. Tardy, NOAA/NWS
10:30 AM
13A.1
A Morphing-based Technique for the Verification of Precipitation Forecasts
Fan Han, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and I. Szunyogh
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM
13A.2
Predictability of Precipitation in the Southeast United States, Part I: Verification and Categorization
Martin A. Baxter, Central Michigan University, Mt. Pleasant, MI; and G. Lackmann, J. E. Tate, K. Mahoney, T. E. Workoff, and T. M. Hamill
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
13A.3
Predictability of Precipitation in the Southeast United States, Part II: Composites and Case Studies
Jennifer E. Tate, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and M. A. Baxter and G. Lackmann
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
13A.4
Comparison of 36-60 Hour Precipitation Forecasts from Convection-Allowing and Convection-Parameterizing Ensembles
Eswar R. Iyer, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. Clark, M. Xue, and F. Kong
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
13A.5
Assessment of two microphysics schemes in the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) Non-hydrostatic Multiscale Model on the B-grid (NMMB)
Jamie K. Wolff, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Harrold, L. Carson, T. Hertneky, and J. Beck
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
13A.6
Verification of 24 May 2011 Simulated Mesocyclones Using Various Microphysics Schemes at 1-km Grid Resolution
Derek R. Stratman, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. A. Brewster
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (3.5 MB)

Recording files available
Session 13B
Regional Climate Downscaling Approaches and Short-Range Climate Prediction
Location: Salon A-5 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Bradley T. Zavodsky, NASA/MSFC; David Beachler, NOAA/NWSFO
10:30 AM
13B.1
Short-term Climate Variability Impacts on Regional Crop Yields in Missouri
Chasity Henson, University of Missouri-Columbia, Columbia, Missouri; and P. S. Market, A. R. Lupo, and P. Guinan
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM
13B.2
Evaluation of WRF High Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Simulations over Domains with Complex Topographies along the Eastern Mediterranean
Renalda El Samra, American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon; and E. Bou Zeid and M. El Fadel
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (244.1 kB)

11:00 AM
13B.3
Predictability of the 2012 US drought using a regional climate model ensemble
Debasish PaiMazumder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Done
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
13B.4
Using Downscaling Approaches to Investigate the Future Changes in Winter Storms and Associated Impacts Over the Northeast U.S
Brian A. Colle, Stony Brook University/SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and Z. Zhang and K. J. Roberts
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
13B.5
High-resolution modeling in support of the Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE)
John M. Henderson, AER, Lexington, MA; and M. Mountain, J. Eluszkiewicz, and T. Nehrkorn
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
13B.6
Statistical Modeling of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Climatology
Chia-Ying Lee, Columbia University, New York, NY; and M. K. Tippett, A. H. Sobel, and S. J. Camargo
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 2 July 2015


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 2 July 2015

Recording files available
Session 14A
Forecast Verification Methods and Performance III: Tropical Cyclones and Verification Tools
Location: Salon A-2 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Alexander O. Tardy, NOAA/NWS; Jennifer E. Tate, North Carolina State University
1:30 PM
14A.1
An Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Forecast Skill in the GEFS Reforecast Version 2
Zhuo Wang, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and W. W. Li and M. Peng
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
14A.2
Benchmarking progress towards the HFIP goals – results from HFIP Demos
Christopher L. Williams, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. K. Biswas, B. G. Brown, T. L. Fowler, E. Gilleland, P. A. Kucera, L. B. Nance, and K. M. Newman
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
14A.3
Examination of GFS Medium-Range Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts in the North Atlantic (2012–2014)
Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis, Y. H. Kuo, W. Wang, and X. Fang
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
14A.4
Evaluation of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts by the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model
Mrinal K. Biswas, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. H. Gotway, T. L. Jensen, B. G. Brown, V. Tallapragada, and L. R. Bernardet
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
14A.5
Diagnosis of Kinetic Energy Error Growth in the NCEP GFS Model during the 2012 Hurricane Season
Xingqin Fang, UCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. H. Kuo
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
14A.6
Recent Advancements to the Model Evaluation Tools from the Developmental Testbed Center
John E. Halley Gotway, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Bullock, M. K. Biswas, T. L. Jensen, J. Prestopnik, T. L. Fowler, and B. G. Brown
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM
14A.7
Web-based Verification Capability using NCEP's Verification Database and DTC's METviewer
Perry Shafran, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and T. L. Jensen, J. H. Gotway, B. Zhou, K. Nevins, Y. Lin, and G. DiMego
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
14A.8
Innovative Extensions of Current Verification Capabilities in the Model Evaluations Tools
Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and J. H. Gotway, R. Bullock, J. Prestopnik, T. Fowler, B. G. Brown, H. Shao, K. M. Newman, and S. E. Haupt

Recording files available
Session 14B
Post-THORPEX Legacy Research and Activities of Similar Campaigns
Location: Salon A-5 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL; Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS
1:30 PM
14B.1
US Post-THORPEX Research Program
Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. J. Majumdar
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
Discussion

2:00 PM
14B.2
New Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts Generation
Bo Cui, IMSG at EMC/NCEP, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu and G. Hong
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
14B.3
NAEFS Anomaly Forecast for Extreme Weather Events
Hong Guan, NCEP, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu, Y. Luo, and B. Cui
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
14B.4
Seamless Precipitation Prediction Skill in the Tropics and Extratropics
Adam H. Sobel, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and H. Zhu, M. C. Wheeler, D. Hudson, and F. Vitart
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
14B.5
An Investigation of the Dynamics of Forecast Uncertainty in Global Atmospheric Model Forecasts
Michael A. Herrera, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and G. Gyarmati, I. Szunyogh, C. F. Loeser, and J. Tribbia
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM
14B.6
The impact of space-based wind measurements on high-impact weather forecasting
Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and B. Gentry, B. B. Demoz, S. Zhang, and L. Zhang
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
14B.7
Navy global coupled system developed under the Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) partnership for extreme weather, S2S and polar prediction
Melinda S. Peng, NRL, Monterey, CA; and G. Jacob, J. G. Richman, J. Ridout, and D. P. Eleuterio
Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Thursday, 2 July 2015


Coffee Break

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 2 July 2015


Joint Poster Session 2
Poster Session II
Location: Salon A-3 & A-4 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Andrew L. Molthan, NASA/MSFC; Sam Ng, Metropolitan State University of Denver
Poster 16 will be presented as paper 7B.1A as well

15
On the Meteorological Verification System used for Verification of United States Navy Numerical Weather Prediction Forecasts
Raymond C. Lee, FNMOC, Monterey, CA

Handout (2.3 MB)

17
Application of MODE to GFS (T574) and GFS (T1534) Precipitation Verification
Tracey A. Dorian, EMC, College Park, MD; and F. Yang

Handout (275.0 kB)

18
The Results of the Field Evaluation of NDBC's Prototype Self-Contained Ocean Observations Payload (SCOOP)
Richard H. Bouchard, NOAA/NDBC, Stennis Space Center, MS; and R. V. Hervey, W. McCall, R. Beets, M. D. Robbie, C. Wills, J. Tancredi, M. Vasquez, and S. DiNapoli

Handout (3.8 MB)

19
A Comparison of QPF from 4 km Grid Spacing WRF Simulations with Operational NAM and GFS Output Using Multiple Verification Methods
Haifan Yan, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr.

Handout (1.5 MB)

20
Entropy-Based Variability and Support Vector Regression-Based Forecast of Drought Index
Ozlem Baydaroglu, ISTANBUL TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY, Istanbul, Turkey; and K. Kocak and L. Saylan

Handout (1.2 MB)

21
Forecasting of Soil Water Content using Support Vector Regression with the Purpose of Agricultural Drought
Toprak Aslan, ITU = Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey; and Ö. Baydaroglu, K. Koçak, and L. Saylan

22
North American Rapid Refresh Ensemble (NARRE)-Preliminary Configuration
Isidora Jankov, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Boulder, CO; and M. Hu, T. Smirnova, J. Beck, S. Gregory, C. Alexander, T. E. Workoff, F. Barthold, J. M. Brown, and S. Benjamin

23
Use of Stochastic Physics Approach in North American Rapid Refresh Ensemble (NARRE)
Isidora Jankov, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Boulder, CO; and J. Beck, T. Smirnova, G. Grell, S. Freitas, J. B. Olson, J. Brown, S. Benjamin, and J. Berner

24
An analysis of surface gradient relationships during cold front events in the eastern United States: a numerical modeling study
Robert Conrick, Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, IN; and N. Curtis, P. Staten, and C. Kirkpatrick

25
Development of a near-real-time GOES-based satellite verification and forecaster guidance system for the HRRR model
Jason A. Otkin, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI; and J. Sieglaff, S. M. Griffin, L. M. Cronce, and C. Alexander

Handout (5.9 MB)

26
The Self-Aggregation of Convection in Idealized Numerical Simulations using Different Cumulus Parameterizations
Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis, Y. H. Kuo, W. Wang, and D. A. Ahijevych

Handout (5.6 MB)

27
Observation impact on forecast error of binary interacted typhoons TEMBIN (201214) and BOLAVEN (201215)
Sung-Min Kim, YONSEI University, SEOUL, Korea, Republic of (South); and H. M. Kim

28
Analysis and Evaluation of the Non-Supercell Tornado Parameter within the WRF Model over the Green Bay Area
Adam T. Hirsch, University of Missouri-Columbia, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market

Poster 29 will be presented as paper 10B.5A as well

30
A New Surface Snow Accumulation Parameterization in the NAM Using Precipitation Type from the Microphysics
Yihua Wu, EMC, College Park, MD; and M. Ek and B. Ferrier

31
An Updated High Resolution Hydrometeor Analysis System Using Radar and Other Data
Keith A. Brewster, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK
Manuscript (810.0 kB)

Handout (536.0 kB)

32
An Overview of CAPS Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast for the 2015 NOAA HWT Spring Forecasting Experiment
Fanyou Kong, CAPS, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, Y. Jung, K. Brewster, K. Thomas, Y. Wang, F. Shen, A. Clark, I. L. Jirak, S. J. Weiss, J. Correia Jr., and C. J. Melick
Manuscript (2.1 MB)

Handout (958.3 kB)

33
Feature-Relative Error Analysis

34
A Multiple Linear Regression Approach for Storm Surge Predictions in the New York/New Jersey Bight
Keith J. Roberts, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle

35
The Use of Vertical Cross Sections in Physics Development for Convection-Allowing Scale NAM Nests
Eric Aligo, EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA and I.M. Systems Group, Inc., College Park, MD; and B. Ferrier, E. Rogers, J. Carley, and G. DiMego

Friday, 3 July 2015

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | top

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Friday, 3 July 2015

Recording files available
Session 15A
Contributions in Numerical Weather Prediction I
Location: Salon A-2 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: David B. Radell, NOAA/NWS; Alexander O. Tardy, NOAA/NWS
8:00 AM
15A.1
Comparison of Forecast Skills between NCEP GFS Four Cycles and on the Value of 06Z and 18Z Cycles
Fanglin Yang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD
Recorded Presentation

Handout (2.2 MB)

8:15 AM
15A.2
NASA SPoRT Modeling and Data Assimilation Research and Transition Activities
Bradley T. Zavodsky, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and J. L. Case, E. Berndt, C. B. Blankenship, J. Srikishen, and A. Naeger
Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM
15A.3
The impact of varying the radiation parameterization and adding a partial cloudiness scheme to Hurricane WRF
Ligia R. Bernardet, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and G. Thompson, C. Holt, and M. K. Biswas
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
15A.4
Impact of two-way interactive nesting on high-resolution hurricane simulations
Weiguo Wang, NOAA, College Park, MD; and B. Liu, S. Trahan, Z. Zhang, L. Zhu, and V. Tallapragada
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
15A.5
Sensitivity of Idealized Hurricane Intensity and Structure to Different Resolutions and physics schemes in HWRF
Lin Zhu, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
15A.6
Tropical Cyclones in the non-hydrostatic GFDL HiRAM
Jan-Huey Chen, NOAA/GFDL, UCAR, Princeton, NJ; and S. J. Lin
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
15A.7
Anticipating Significant Precipitation Events using a Model-Climate Approach
Jonathan J. Rutz, NWS, Salt Lake City, UT; and T. I. Alcott
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
15A.8
WRF Inversion Base Height Ensembles for Simulating California Summertime Marine Boundary Layer Clouds
Xiaohui Zhong, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA; and J. Kleissl

Recording files available
Session 15B
Testbed, Proving Ground, and Research-to-Operations Activities
Location: Salon A-5 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Jeffrey P. Craven, NOAA; Martin A. Baxter, Central Michigan University
8:00 AM
15B.1
Analysis, Prediction and Observing Systems Experiments for the CASA Dallas/Ft. Worth Testbed
Frederick H. Carr, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. Carlaw, K. Brewster, and J. A. Brotzge
Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM
15B.2
Using the High-Resolution NSSL-WRF Ensemble to Provide Hazard Guidance
Burkely L. Twiest, The University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. Clark, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, I. L. Jirak, and S. R. Dembek
Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM
15B.3
Developmental Testbed Center: Facilitating R2O for Numerical Weather Prediction
Louisa Nance, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. H. Kuo, J. K. Wolff, L. R. Bernardet, and H. Shao
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
15B.4
Operational Model Transitions: Examples in Integrated Systems
Charles E. Skupniewicz, FNMOC, Monterey, CA; and R. A. Stocker
Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.2 MB)

9:00 AM
15B.5
An update on CIRA's Proving Ground efforts as we approach the launch of GOES-R
Edward J. Szoke, CIRA/Colorado State Univ. and NOAA/Global Systems Division, Boulder, CO; and D. Bikos, R. Brummer, H. Gosden, D. T. Lindsey, D. A. Molenar, D. W. Hillger, S. D. Miller, and C. J. Seaman
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
15B.6
Use and Assessment of Multi-Spectral Satellite Imagery in NWS Operational Forecasting Environments
Andrew L. Molthan, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and K. K. Fuell, G. T. Stano, K. M. McGrath, L. A. Schultz, and A. LeRoy
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
15B.7
NOAA Beach Water Quality Experimental Forecasts
David Beachler, NOAA/NWSFO, Romeoville, IL; and D. Rockwell
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
15B.8
Testbed Activities at the U.S. Army Dugway Proving Ground
John C. Pace, U.S Army, Dugway Proving Ground, Dugway, UT; and D. Zajic, E. Vernon, F. W. Gallagher III, and B. P. Reen
Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Friday, 3 July 2015


Coffee Break

10:30 AM-12:30 PM: Friday, 3 July 2015

Recording files available
Session 16A
Contributions in Numerical Weather Prediction II
Location: Salon A-2 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Martin A. Baxter, Central Michigan University; Alexander O. Tardy, NOAA/NWS
10:30 AM
16A.1
High Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction for High Impact and Extreme Weather Events in 2014 across Southern California
Alexander O. Tardy, NOAA/NWS, San Diego, CA
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM
16A.2
Solar Energy Nowcasting Case Studies Near Sacramento
Jared A. Lee, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. E. Haupt, P. A. Jimenez, T. C. McCandless, M. A. Rogers, and S. D. Miller
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
16A.3
Air-Sea Interaction and Moist Static Energy Budget in COAMPS Extended-Range Simulations during DYNAMO
Xiaodong Hong, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds, J. D. Doyle, P. May, S. Chen, M. K. Flatau, and L. W. O'Neill
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
16A.4
NITE (NWP Information Technology Environment): an infrastructure to facilitate development of NCEP numerical models
Ligia R. Bernardet, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and L. Carson
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
16A.5
Factors Influencing Orographic Precipitation for Uniform Flow over a Two-Dimensional Mountain: Part I. Basic Flow Speed
Gökhan Sever, North Carolina A&T State University, Greensboro, NC; and Y. L. Lin
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
16A.6
Coupled Mesoscale-LES Modeling of a Diurnal Cycle with a Nocturnal Low-level Jet: the Wangara Case Study
Patrick Hawbecker, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and N. Y. Lu, S. Basu, B. Kosovic, and L. Manuel
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM
Concluding Remarks

Recording files available
Session 16B
Forecasting Tools
Location: Salon A-5 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Matthew Friedlein, NOAA/NWS; David Beachler, NOAA/NWSFO
10:30 AM
16B.1
On the synoptic-scale makings of the most extreme warm-season precipitation events
Shawn M. Milrad, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, FL; and J. R. Gyakum and E. H. Atallah
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM
16B.2
Common Ingredients for Heavy Precipitation associated with the Passage of Hurricanes Hugo (1998) and Isabel (2003) over the Southern-Central Appalachian Mountains
Riem Rostom, North Carolina A&T State University, Greensboro, NC; and Y. L. Lin
Recorded Presentation

16B.3
Derivation of Climatology - Based CONUS PoP Guidance Grids

11:15 AM
16B.4
Applications of Earth Remote Sensing Data for Severe Weather and Disaster Assessment
Andrew L. Molthan, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and J. E. Burks, L. A. Schultz, K. Angle, J. P. Camp, K. M. McGrath, and J. R. Bell
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
16B.5
Evolution of Digital Aviation Services at NWS Milwaukee and Chicago
Jamie E. Enderlen, NOAA/NWSFO, Romeoville, IL; and M. R. Cronce and J. R. Wiedenfeld
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
16B.6
A Review of Wind and Wave Measurements from a NOAA Buoy during the Provincetown IV Ferry Incident of August 13, 2014
Richard H. Bouchard, NOAA/NDBC, Stennis Space Center, MS; and S. Cucullu, J. W. Dellicarpini, G. Field, P. C. Liu, A. V. Babanin, W. E. Rogers, D. W. Wang, G. Z. Forristall, and R. Beets

Handout (2.6 MB)

12:00 PM
Concluding Remarks

12:30 PM-12:35 PM: Friday, 3 July 2015


Conference Ends
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