Navy global coupled system developed under the Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) partnership for extreme weather, S2S and polar prediction

In the face of public awareness of high-impact weather events around the globe and the changing climate environment, a number of calls have appeared seeking revolutionary collaboration among agencies and between the weather and climate communities to significantly advance our prediction capability to benefit citizens, warfighters, and policymakers. The Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) represents the national response to this need and many challenges, both present and future. It is recognized that the nation needs a new operational global earth system model consisting of high-resolution atmosphere, ocean, ice, land, and space components capable of seamless prediction from zero hour to three decades within the next ten years. The ESPC will address the scientific, technical, computational, and organizational challenges to meet this ambitious goal. ESPC will leverage collaborative strengths among agencies while recognizing differences in participants' specific requirements. Earth system modeling requires collaboration between scientists specializing in fields from the seabed to outer space and requires participation from public, private, and academic entities and will connect agencies in both research & operations. This presentation entails the Navy's effort in developing a global full coupled system including NAVGEM (atmosphere), HYCOM (ocean), CICE (sea ice), wave (WW III) and land model under ESPC. Near term focus of the ESPC capability demonstration includes the extreme weather, S2S and polar prediction that are in line with WWRP/THORPEX-WCRP joint projects.