Handout (2.6 MB)
At the time of the incident, significant wave heights as reported from the nearby NOAA Buoy 44013 (known as the Boston buoy) were 5 to 6 feet. A general rule-of-thumb would estimate maximum wave heights on the order of 10 to 12 feet, which is far less than the estimated wave height of 20 feet initially reported. Since the pilot house is approximately 20 feet above the waterline, early reports categorized these waves as rogue waves. Rogue waves are generally defined as waves that are more than twice the height of the significant wave height. So seemingly, the Provincetown IV incident met the criterion for rogue waves. The buoy indicated significant steepening of the waves during the incident, and periods of reduced wind speeds that could contribute to the generation of rogue waves.
This presentation will describe the meteorological conditions that led to this event. The wind and wave data from Buoy 44013 are reviewed for indications of conditions conducive to the formation of rogue waves. The question of whether or not rogue waves can be accurately forecast will be discussed.
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