Necessary Tools for Forecasting a Historic Lake Effect Snow Event for 17-21 November 2014

The week of 17-21 November 2014 will be remembered as one of the most significant winter events in Buffalo's snowy history. Comprised of two closely spaced but separate crippling lake effect snow events, some areas eventually ended up with nearly 7 feet of snow while other locales just to the north measured only a few inches. The National Weather Service Forecast office in Buffalo, NY (NWS BUF) successfully forecast this epic event using a combination of local, regional, and national expertise and research. Local records combined with online analogs, climatic ensembles, locally developed climatology, high resolution local and national models, and locally generated tools all were used to forecast the historic event.

One key requirement for forecasting is pattern recognition. This generally goes hand in hand with forecaster experience. However, access to online climatic and historic data allows less experienced staff to pick up on potentially extreme events. Some examples include Cooperative Institute for Precipitation Systems (CIPS) and climatic ensemble output from a variety of online locations. A local dataset derived from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis V1 dataset is important as well.

As the NWS product suite has evolved from text-based to digital, the public can now visually see exactly where a lake band may be at hourly intervals. This requires NWS staff to use highly refined forecast tools, some based on long-standing research built on 50 years of experience and published documentation in order to provide high spatial and temporal data. Locally published research on lake effect electrification, high resolution mesoscale model biases, and general lake effect processes also contribute to a successful forecast. This presentation will cover some of these tools used to forecast the historic event.