New Ensemble Generation and Probabilistic Forecasting Techniques I

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Wednesday, 1 July 2015: 8:00 AM-10:00 AM
Salon A-5 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs:  Adam J. Clark, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NSSL/NOAA, Norman, OK and Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER, Offutt AFB, NE

  8:00 AM
Exploring probabilistic precipitation and hydrologic forecasts for a flash flood event
Kelly M. Mahoney, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and D. J. Gochis, W. Yu, and K. Sampson
  8:15 AM
Generating Skillful and Reliable Probabilistic Forecasts for Locally Extreme Rainfall
Gregory R. Herman, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher
  8:45 AM
Progress in storm-scale ensemble forecast system design at NCAR
Glen Romine, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Schwartz, R. A. Sobash, and K. Fossell
  9:15 AM
Using storm surrogates to produce probabilistic severe weather forecasts from an EnKF-based ensemble forecasting system
Ryan A. Sobash, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. S. Romine, M. L. Weisman, C. S. Schwartz, and K. R. Fossell
  9:45 AM
Butterflies and Bow Echoes
John Lawson, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr. and M. J. Krocak