Session 8B New Ensemble Generation and Probabilistic Forecasting Techniques I

Wednesday, 1 July 2015: 8:00 AM-10:00 AM
Salon A-5 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs:
Adam J. Clark, NSSL, Norman, OK and Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER, Offutt AFB, NE

Papers:
8:00 AM
8B.1
Exploring probabilistic precipitation and hydrologic forecasts for a flash flood event
Kelly M. Mahoney, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and D. J. Gochis, W. Yu, and K. Sampson
Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM
8B.2
Generating Skillful and Reliable Probabilistic Forecasts for Locally Extreme Rainfall
Gregory R. Herman, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher
Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM
8B.3
Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts from Convection-Allowing Models and Ensembles
Nigel Roberts, Met Office, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
8B.4
Progress in storm-scale ensemble forecast system design at NCAR
Glen Romine, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Schwartz, R. A. Sobash, and K. Fossell
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
8B.5
The Use of Ensemble-Based Sensitivity with Observations to Improve Predictability of Severe Convective Events
Brian C. Ancell, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and A. Hill and B. Burghardt
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
8B.6
Using storm surrogates to produce probabilistic severe weather forecasts from an EnKF-based ensemble forecasting system
Ryan A. Sobash, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. S. Romine, M. L. Weisman, C. S. Schwartz, and K. R. Fossell
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
8B.7
Bridging the Gap between Research and Operations using the Mesoscale Model Evaluation Testbed (MMET)
Tracy J. Hertneky, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Harrold and J. K. Wolff
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
8B.8
Butterflies and Bow Echoes
John Lawson, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr. and M. J. Krocak
Recorded Presentation

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner
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