Real-time Probabilistic Hurricane Prediction using HWRF based Ensemble Prediction System and Joint Multi-Model Ensemble

In this study, stochastic perturbations are introduced in the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model at the NCEP/EMC to generate HWRF-based ensemble prediction system (EPS). The system includes uncertainties from model initial conditions, cumulus convection scheme and PBL scheme. The verifications for real time 2014 storms in Atlantic, West Pacific and Indian Ocean basins shows HWRF-EPS outperformed its deterministic version in terms of track and intensity forecasts. The system is further extended to a joint multi-regional model EPS by combining HWRF, COPAMPS-C, and GFDL ensembles. The joint ensemble system takes into account for uncertainties from different model dynamics and physics, and demonstrated significant improvement of the hurricane track/intensity forecasts over their deterministic versions. New probabilistic forecast products are developed based on the joint ensemble system. The probabilistic forecasts and statistical features of the joint ensemble system will also be verified and evaluated.