Session 9B New Ensemble Generation and Probabilistic Forecasting Techniques II

Wednesday, 1 July 2015: 10:30 AM-12:00 PM
Salon A-5 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs:
David B. Radell, NOAA/NWS, Eastern Region SSD, Bohemia, NY and Sam Ng, Metropolitan State University of Denver, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Denver, CO

Papers:
10:30 AM
9B.1
Investigating a New Stochastic Physics Suite for Use in the NCEP Global Ensemble
Walter Kolczynski Jr., EMC, College Park, MD; and P. Pegion, T. Hamill, J. S. Whitaker, D. Hou, Y. Zhu, and X. Zhou
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM
9B.2
Investigation with Increased Horizontal Resolution and Ensemble Size for Future GEFS
Xiaqiong Zhou, IMSG at EMC, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu and W. Li
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
9B.3
Probabilistic and Deterministic Forecasting using Evolutionary Program Ensembles
Paul J. Roebber, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
9B.4
Representing model uncertainty in the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)
Philip Pegion, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. Whitaker, T. Hamill, and W. Kolczynski Jr.
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
9B.5
Real-time Probabilistic Hurricane Prediction using HWRF based Ensemble Prediction System and Joint Multi-Model Ensemble
Zhan Zhang, EMC, College Park, MD; and V. Tallapragada, C. Kieu, S. Trahan, and W. Wang
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (265.1 kB)

11:45 AM
9B.6
Probabilistic Verification of Global and Mesoscale Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclogenesis
Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and R. D. Torn
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM
AMS President Dr. Sandy MacDonald

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner
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