Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system at NCEP: recent development and future transition

The NCEP SREF is recently under an upgrade by increasing diversities in initial condition and model physics, expanding its membership as well as model consolidation. The detail changes as well as their impact on the SREF performance will be overviewed. As the increase of both computing capacity and global model resolution in near future, NCEP's regional modeling focus will also keep involving by focusing more on higher resolution both temporally and spatially such as hourly updated and convection-allowing ensemble forecast system under a more unified modeling framework. This talk will also briefly discuss that near-future blue plan related to ensembles.