Mesoscale Modeling Development at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction: Near-term plans and future evolution into a high-resolution convective-allowing ensemble system

The planned increase in NCEP's computing capacity during the 2015-2016 time frame will provide the resources required for significant changes to the NCEP production suite. As NCEP's global modeling effort evolves toward the development of a next-generation high-resolution (<=10 km) global non-hydrostatic model, NCEP's mesoscale modeling development will focus on the creation of a convection-allowing ensemble forecast system. In practical terms, this entails the convergence of NCEP's NEMS-NMMB systems (NAM, NMMB members of SREF and HiResW) and the WRF-ARW systems (RAP, HRRR, ARW members of SREF and HiResW) into two components: a rapidly cycled continental-scale ensemble of NMMB and ARW members, which will drive a rapidly cycled convective-allowing ensemble at ~3 km resolution with hourly forecasts to 24-h.

Details on planned near-term assimilation and modeling upgrades to these NCEP systems and how these upgrades fit into the planned evolution of the NCEP convection-allowing ensemble will be presented at the conference.