2A.4 Mesoscale Modeling Development at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction: Near-term plans and future evolution into a high-resolution convective-allowing ensemble system

Monday, 29 June 2015: 11:15 AM
Salon A-2 (Hilton Chicago)
Eric Rogers, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and G. DiMego, E. Aligo, J. Carley, J. Du, B. Ferrier, Z. Janjic, G. Manikin, M. Pyle, W. S. Wu, S. G. Benjamin, C. Alexander, and M. Hu

The planned increase in NCEP's computing capacity during the 2015-2016 time frame will provide the resources required for significant changes to the NCEP production suite. As NCEP's global modeling effort evolves toward the development of a next-generation high-resolution (<=10 km) global non-hydrostatic model, NCEP's mesoscale modeling development will focus on the creation of a convection-allowing ensemble forecast system. In practical terms, this entails the convergence of NCEP's NEMS-NMMB systems (NAM, NMMB members of SREF and HiResW) and the WRF-ARW systems (RAP, HRRR, ARW members of SREF and HiResW) into two components: a rapidly cycled continental-scale ensemble of NMMB and ARW members, which will drive a rapidly cycled convective-allowing ensemble at ~3 km resolution with hourly forecasts to 24-h.

Details on planned near-term assimilation and modeling upgrades to these NCEP systems and how these upgrades fit into the planned evolution of the NCEP convection-allowing ensemble will be presented at the conference.

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