Current and Future Numerical Weather Prediction in the U.S. Navy

The U. S. Navy operates a tightly integrated suite of global and regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems at Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC). These systems, most of which developed by the Marine Meteorology Division of the Naval Research Laboratory, provide the foundation for almost all of the real-time weather and ocean forecasts produced by the Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command. The systems are run at all levels of classification, tailored and optimized for support of naval operations, and protected to Department of Defense Information Assurance standards. Thus, the Navy fills a unique and demanding role in the world of operational NWP.

The current system suite at FNMOC consists of:

– NAVGEM – NAVy Global Environmental Model; T425L50 global spectral semi-lagrangian model with a top at 0.04 hPa, at the center of FNMOC production.

– NAVDAS – NRL Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System; 3D-VAR data assimilation system for COAMPS.

– NAVDAS-AR – NRL Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System – Accelerated Representer; 4D-VAR data assimilation system for NAVGEM.

– COAMPS – Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System; globally relocatable regional mesoscale model, multi-nested to ~1 km resolution within NAVGEM and global NCOM.

– COAMPS-TC - Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones. Globally relocatable tropical cyclone prediction model with moving nests following the storms with the inner most mesh ~5 km. – GFDN – Navy implementation of the GFDL Tropical Cyclone Model; provides TC track and intensity forecasts in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Ocean basins.

– WW3 – WaveWatch III spectral ocean wave model; global and regional implementations, driven by NAVGEM and COAMPS, respectively.

– NCODA – Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation System; provides analyses of ocean temperature, salinity, sea-ice concentration and wave height. NCODA supports NAVGEM, COAMPS, the sea ice model CICE, and WW3.

– EFS – Global 20-member 16-day Ensemble Forecast System, based on NAVGEM. EFS is a key component of the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC). – NAAPS – Navy Atmospheric Aerosol Prediction System; the first operational global aerosol model with assimilation of aerosol optical depth data, driven by NAVGEM.

All of the models are currently configured, scheduled and operated on the High Performance Computing (HPC) assets of the Primary Oceanographic Prediction System (POPS). NRL and FNMOC are pursuing a series of upgrades to the Navy's operational NWP suite, including a hybrid DA for NAVGEM, 4D-VAR for COAMPS, improved resolution and physics in NAVGEM and COAMPS, a fully-coupled air-ocean-wave COAMPS, stochastic physics in EFS, and integration of NAAPS into NAVGEM. In addition, Navy is developing the next-generation fully coupled global model for both weather and climate prediction under the national partnership of Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC).