Session 10A Ensemble Techniques and Communication of Forecast Uncertainty

Wednesday, 1 July 2015: 1:30 PM-3:30 PM
Salon A-2 (Hilton Chicago)
Host: 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs:
Alexander O. Tardy, NOAA/NWS, Weather Forecast Office, San Diego, CA and Martin A. Baxter, Central Michigan University, Mt. Pleasant, MI

Papers:
1:30 PM
10A.1
Applying Fuzzy Clustering Analysis to Assess Uncertainty and Model Performance in Forecasting Cool Season High-impact Weather over the U.S. East Coast
Minghua Zheng, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and E. K. M. Chang and B. A. Colle
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
10A.2
A Study from NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System Extend Forecast
Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and M. Peña, D. Hou, X. Zhou, W. Li, and Q. Zhang
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
10A.3
A New Method for the Characterization and Verification of Local Spatial Predictability for Convective Scale Ensembles
Seonaid R. A. Dey, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and R. Plant, N. Roberts, and S. Migliorini
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
10A.4
Using Anomalies to Forecast High Impact Events
David Beachler, NOAA/NWSFO, Romeoville, IL; and R. Grumm
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
10A.5
NWS Efforts to Improve Forecasting and Messaging of Uncertainty
Eli Jacks, NOAA/NWS Forecast Services Division, Silver Spring, MD; and D. R. Novak
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
10A.6
Verification Results from the Northeast Probabilistic Storm Total Snowfall Forecast Experiment During Winter of 2014-2015
David B. Radell, NOAA/NWS, Bohemia, NY; and J. Watson, R. Watling, S. M. Zubrick, A. M. Cope, J. S. Tongue, and J. W. Dellicarpini
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM
Discussion

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner
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