3A.6 The National Earth System Prediction Capability Program

Monday, 29 June 2015: 3:00 PM
Salon A-2 (Hilton Chicago)
Jessie C. Carman, OAR, Silver Spring, MD; and D. P. Eleuterio, D. McCarren, F. Toepfer, S. Sandgathe, K. Lutz, and K. Keith

The nation's security and economic well-being rely upon accurate global analysis and prediction capabilities for the physical environment over time scales of a few days to weekly, monthly, seasonal and longer lead times. The National Earth System Prediction Capability (National ESPC) inter-agency program is an ongoing effort to develop and implement an improved national physical earth system prediction capability internally consistent across time scales, physical media, and around the globe. The program responds to multiple drivers: the need for internal prediction consistency, the need to strategically leverage existing investments and programs, and the need to better coordinate the contributions of multiple agencies and the academic community. This project involves an operational ensemble capability, common post processing and product development, infrastructure to support more collaborative and interoperable model development and a shared vision and R&D goals for ongoing and future efforts. Projects being leveraged to construct the multi-scale ensemble system include NWS's Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS), Navy's NAVGEM and extended range efforts, the National Multi-Model Ensemble, and existing longer-range programs. Coordinated R&D efforts foster the existing and future modeling capabilities as the partnering agencies and the broader community recognize the need for this unifying project to build a national capability.
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