National Hurricane Center forecast verification

For all operationally-designated tropical (or subtropical) cyclones in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues an “official” forecast of the cyclone's center position and maximum 1-min surface wind speed. Forecasts are issued every 6 hours, and contain projections valid 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h after the forecast's nominal initial time (0000, 0600, 1200, or 1800 UTC) . At the conclusion of the season, forecasts are evaluated by comparing the projected positions and intensities to the corresponding post-storm derived “best track” positions and intensities for each cyclone. This presentation will review the accuracy and skill of NHC tropical cyclone forecasts in recent years, and examine forecast trends, biases, and error distributions.