Tropical cyclogenesis: A modeling comparison between developing and non-developing cloud clusters

Although great strides have been made in recent years toward increasing our knowledge of developing and mature tropical cyclones through observations and modeling, large gaps still remain in our understanding of the pre-genesis phase. As an example, a great deal of uncertainly exists as to why some cloud clusters develop into tropical cyclones and others, which are embedded within similar environments, do not. Gaining a better understanding of the pre-genesis phase could help forecasters identify which clusters will develop. This could translate into a significant increase in lead time for emergency management personnel, especially for storms forming in close proximity to coastal areas.

In this paper an ongoing modeling study to better understand the pre-genesis processes in tropical cloud clusters is described. The model used to facilitate this process is the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The model is used as a tool to investigate in detail the microphysical evolution of pre-genesis cloud clusters as they develop into tropical cyclones. A comparison and analysis of the microphysical structure of developing and non-developing cloud clusters and the convection elements embedded within them will be presented.