R2O Efforts in Support of FACETs: Findings from the Initial Phase and a Look Ahead

Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) is a proposed next-generation hazardous weather watch/warning framework that is modern, flexible, and designed to communicate clear and simple hazardous weather information to serve the public. This initiative originated in the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) with a focus on severe convective weather and flash flooding. In 2015, NSSL worked with a variety of public and private sector partners to develop a Science and Strategic Implementation Plan (SSIP) to guide physical and social science research-to-operations efforts toward achieving a FACETs paradigm. Later that year, a US Weather Research Program (USWRP) grant was awarded to NSSL, along with collaborators at the Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, Environmental Systems Research Lab, University of Oklahoma, and University of Akron, to begin work on twelve of the highest priority SSIP projects. This three-year project of projects, called “Probability of What? Understanding and Conveying Uncertainty through Probabilistic Hazard Services” (PoW), focused on a variety of FACETs related physical and social science challenges in forecasting and warning for severe convection and flash flooding.

As PoW comes to an end this year, NSSL is working with its partners to evaluate and contextualize the significant progress made through this effort, and other related work over the last three years, toward achieving the goals of the SSIP. This presentation will provide a broad overview of the PoW R2O findings and accomplishments, and the associated progress toward a FACETs paradigm. With the completion of PoW, a new version of the SSIP that accounts for the progress made to date is in the process of being finalized. The presentation will also provide an outline of future plans based on this new SSIP.