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Sunday, 21 October 2018

5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 21 October 2018


Registration Opens
Location: Beatrice room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Monday, 22 October 2018

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 22 October 2018


Registration
Location: Beatrice room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

8:45 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 22 October 2018

Recording files available
Session 1
Bridging the Gap: Tornadoes
Location: Pinnacle room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Jana B. Houser, Ohio Univ.
8:45 AM
Welcoming Remarks
9:00 AM
1.1
Tornadic Near-Storm Environments of the Southeastern United States
Alexandra Anderson-Frey, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and Y. P. Richardson, A. R. Dean, R. L. Thompson, and B. T. Smith
9:15 AM
1.2
9:30 AM
1.3
Explicit Forecasts of Low-Level Rotation with Convection-Allowing Models Using 1-Km Horizontal Grid Spacing
Ryan A. Sobash, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. S. Schwartz, G. S. Romine, and M. L. Weisman
9:45 AM
1.4
The Dodge City Tornadoes on 24 May 2016: Damage Survey, Photogrammetric Analysis Combine with Mobile Polarimetric Radar Data
Roger, M. Wakimoto, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and Z. B. Weinhoff, H. B. Bluestein, and D. W. Reif
10:00 AM
1.5
The Role of the Streamwise Vorticity Current in Tornado Genesis and Maintenance
Leigh Orf, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and A. Dixon and K. T. Halbert

10:15 AM
Discussion

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 22 October 2018


Coffee Break
Location: Pinnacle Lobby (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

11:00 AM-12:30 PM: Monday, 22 October 2018

Recording files available
Session 2
Novel Observations and Their Use in Models
Location: Pinnacle room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Kelly Lombardo, Univ. of Connecticut
11:00 AM
2.1
Thermodynamic Observations Above the Ground in Convective Storms from Balloonborne Probes Acting as Pseudo-Lagrangian Drifters
Yvette Richardson, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and P. Markowski, S. J. Richardson, and A. Petersson
11:30 AM
2.2
Development of UAV-Deployed Air-Launched Drifters (ALD) for Aboveground Thermodynamic Measurements in Supercells
Sara J Swenson, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and B. Argrow, E. W. Frew, S. Borenstein, J. M. Keeler, and A. Houston
11:45 AM
2.3
Principles and Operational Applications of Geostationary Lightning Mapper Data for Severe Local Storms
Kristin M. Calhoun, Univ. of Oklahoma/CIMMS and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and E. C. Bruning and C. J. Schultz
12:15 PM
2.5
Impact of sUAS Data on CAM Supercell Forecasts
Jason M. Keeler, Central Michigan Univ., Mount Pleasant, MI; and A. L. Houston and A. B. Mills

12:30 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 22 October 2018


Lunch Break

2:00 PM-3:30 PM: Monday, 22 October 2018

Recording files available
Session 3A
Prediction
Location: Pinnacle C (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Nusrat Yussouf, NWC
2:00 PM
3A.1
The 2018 NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment
Adam Clark, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak, B. T. Gallo, S. J. Weiss, L. J. Wicker, S. R. Dembek, M. Xue, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, K. H. Knopfmeier, G. J. Creager, K. Brewster, Y. Jung, B. Roberts, G. Romine, C. Alexander, X. Wang, A. Johnson, L. Harris, C. Zhang, M. J. Morin, S. J. Lin, R. M. Hepper, T. A. Supinie, and A. R. Dean
2:15 PM
3A.2
Evidence of Progress: Precipitation Forecasts from the Warn-on-Forecast Ensemble System
John R. Lawson, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain, N. Yussouf, D. C. Dowell, D. M. Wheatley, K. H. Knopfmeier, and T. A. Jones
2:30 PM
3A.3
Inter-model Storm-scale Comparisons from the 2017 Spring Forecasting Experiment
Corey K. Potvin, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. Carley, A. J. Clark, L. J. Wicker, P. S. Skinner, A. E. Reinhart, B. T. Gallo, and J. S. Kain
2:45 PM
3A.4
Ensemble Sensitivity-Based Subsetting Overview and Evaluation Activities at the 2018 NOAA HWT
Brian C. Ancell, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and A. A. Coleman, A. J. Hill, and C. C. Weiss
3:00 PM
3A.5
Examining the Use of the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for Ensembles for the Prediction of Severe Storms Through Short-Term Forecast Outlooks During the 2018 Spring Forecasting Experiment
Jessica J. Choate, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and A. Clark, B. T. Gallo, E. Grimes, P. L. Heinselman, P. Skinner, and K. A. Wilson
Recording files available
Session 3B
Supercells
Location: Pinnacle AB (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Michael M. French, NOAA/NSSL
2:00 PM
3B.1
An Update on VORTEX-SE Activities at Texas Tech Univ.
Christopher C. Weiss, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and D. C. Dowell, A. J. Hill, J. McDonald, E. C. Bruning, and J. Dahl
2:15 PM
3B.2
An Unusual Line of Tornadic Supercells
Donald W. Burgess, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. E. Reinhart
2:45 PM
3B.4
3:00 PM
3B.5
The Relationship Between RFD Thermodynamic Deficit and RFGF Vertical Structure in High-Resolution Simulated Supercells
Abby L. Hutson, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and C. C. Weiss, D. C. Dowell, and G. H. Bryan

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 22 October 2018


Poster Session 1A
Severe Storm Databases and Reanalyses
Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
1
The International Fujita Scale: A Globally Applicable Scale for Tornado and Wind Damage Classification
Pieter Groenemeijer, European Severe Storms Laboratory, Wessling, Germany; and A. M. Holzer

2
Biases in the Severe Weather Report Database across Vermont and Northern New York
Andrea M. LaRocca, NWS, Burlington, VT; and P. C. Banacos

3
Comparison between European and U.S. Severe Convective Weather Environments in Multiple Reanalyses
Anja T. Rädler, Ludwig- aximilians Univ., Munich, Germany; and T. Pucik, P. Groenemeijer, and C. M. Castellano

4
Using the MYRORSS Database to Create a Rotating Storms Climatology
Kendell LaRoche, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. S. Williams, K. L. Ortega, A. E. Reinhart, M. C. Mahalik, B. R. Smith, and T. M. Smith

Handout (26.6 MB)

5
Global Convective Environments: Multiple Reanalysis Climatology
John T. Allen, Central Michigan Univ., Mt. Pleasant, MI

6
NARRCON: A High-Resolution Reanalysis for the Severe Storms Community
Victor A. Gensini, Northern Illinois Univ., DeKalb, IL


Poster Session 1B
Severe Storm Hazards: Hail
Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
7
Albany Forecast Area Significant Hail Climatology and Case Studies
Thomas A. Wasula, NOAA/NWS, Albany, NY; and B. J. Frugis and D. B. Thompson

Handout (4.3 MB)

8
Simulation of a Hail Event Set for Central Europe
Christopher M. Castellano, European Severe Storms Laboratory, Wessling, Germany; and P. Groenemeijer, A. T. Raedler, E. Faust, and T. Pucik

11
Insights Into Identifying and Nowcasting Deep Hail Accumulations
Robinson Wallace, Univ. of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO; and K. Friedrich, B. Meier, W. Deierling, E. A. Kalina, and P. T. Schlatter

12
Comparison of Impact Disdrometer and Surface Hailstone Measurements with Dual-Polarization Doppler Radar-Based Hail Swaths from the 29 May 2018 Erick, Oklahoma Hailstorm
Jacob Sorber, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and M. R. Kumjian, I. M. Giammanco, and T. M. Brown-Giammanco

13
Dual-Polarization Radar and Environmental Characteristics of Storms Producing Large Accumulations of Small Hail
Matthew R. Kumjian, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and Z. J. Lebo and A. Ward

15
Updraft Width in Severe Thunderstorms – Observations of Significant-Hail Producing Thunderstorms
Jenni Rauhala, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland

16
Observing Hail Swaths Using the GOES-16 Advanced Baseline Imager
Dillon V. Blount, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and P. N. Schumacher and K. Gallo


Poster Session 1C
Severe Storm Hazards: Heavy Rain and Flash Flooding
Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
17
CAPS Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast Experiment in Supporting 2018 NOAA HWT SFE and HMT FFaIR
Fanyou Kong, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, Y. Jung, K. A. Brewster, N. Snook, C. Zhang, T. A. Supinie, K. W. Thomas, A. J. Clark, and I. L. Jirak

18
20
Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts for Flash Flooding in the 2018 NOAA/NSSL Hydrometeorology Testbed
Katie A. Wilson, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. M. Martinaitis, N. Yussouf, P. L. Heinselman, and J. J. Gourley


Poster Session 1D
Severe Storm Hazards: Wind
Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
22
Large-amplitude Gravity Waves as an Unclassified Type of Storm
Anton Seimon, Appalachian State Univ., Boone, NC; and L. Bosart and J. H. Ruppert Jr.

23
Basis for a Stochastic Convective Storm Model Using Measured Near-Surface Wind Gust and Reanalysis Data
Franklin T. Lombardo, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and S. Hu and A. S. Zickar

24
Evaluating Outflow Boundary Characteristics in Areas of Complex Terrain
Nicholas T. Luchetti, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and K. Friedrich, J. K. Lundquist, and C. Rodell

26
Prediction of Microbursts in the Northeastern U.S.
Stephen Jessup, SUNY, Brockport, NY; and A. Burke

28
How a Sea Breeze Front can Generate Supercells in Marginal Environments
Harald Richter, BoM, Melbourne, Australia; and L. Bosart and J. S. Soderholm

29
Advances in Development of the ASCE/SEI/AMS Standard for Wind Speed Estimation in Tornadoes and Other Windstorms
James G. LaDue, NOAA/NWS/Office of Chief Learning Officer/Warning Decision Training Division, Norman, OK; and J. Wurman, M. Levitan, F. T. Lombardo, C. D. Karstens, J. Robinson, and W. Coulbourne

30
Turbulence Characteristics of Severe Straight-line Winds in a Rear-Flank Downdraft and Bow Echo Observed by the Texas Tech Univ. Ka-Band Mobile Doppler Radars
Patrick S. Skinner, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and W. S. Gunter, E. C. Bruning, C. C. Weiss, J. L. Schroeder, and S. M. Berkseth


Poster Session 1E
Severe Storms: Climatologies, Climatological Variability, and Climate Change
Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
31
Increasingly Powerful Tornadoes
James B. Elsner, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and T. Fricker

33
The Anomalously Large 2018 Hail Season of Eastern Colorado: A Local Perspective on a National Trend
Samuel J. Childs, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

Handout (2.7 MB)

36
Trends in Environments Conducive for Large Hail
Brian H. Tang, SUNY, Albany, NY

37
Composite Synoptic Charts and Quantiles of Convective Parameters Associated with Distinct Modes of Severe Convective Weather in Southern Brazil
Murilo Machado Lopes, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, Brazil; and E. L. Nascimento

38
Severe Thunderstorm Life Cycles in New York State
Matthew Wunsch, Stony Brook Univ., Stony Brook, NY; and M. M. French

39
A Climatology of Quasi-linear Convective Systems in the U.S.
Walker S. Ashley, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL; and A. M. Haberlie and J. Strohm

Handout (6.9 MB)

40
Potential Future Changes of the Severe Weather Environment in Western Canada
Jennifer Bruneau, Univ. of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada; and J. Hanesiak, W. Burrows, and J. C. Brimelow

41
Winter Significant Tornado Variability in Relation to ENSO and the Gulf of Mexico
Maria J. Molina, Central Michigan Univ., Mt. Pleasant, MI; and J. T. Allen and V. A. Gensini

Handout (6.7 MB)

42
Convective Storm Life Cycle and Environments Near the Sierras De Córdoba, Argentina
Jake Mulholland, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and S. W. Nesbitt, R. J. Trapp, K. L. Rasmussen, and P. Salio


Poster Session 1F
Tornado Damage and Surface Interactions
Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
44
How Land Use Alters the Tornado Disaster Landscape
Stephen M. Strader, Villanova University, Villanova, PA; and W. S. Ashley, T. J. Pingel, and A. Krmenec

46
The Effects of Varying Surface Roughness, Translational Velocity and Swirl Ratio on an Idealized Tornado
Martin A Satrio, Advanced Radar Research Center, Norman, OK; and D. J. Bodine, A. E. Reinhart, and T. Maruyama
Manuscript (4.0 MB)

48
Low-Level Tornado Wind Structure
Karen Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and J. Wurman

49
Investigation of the Impact of Terrain and Buildings on Tornado Dynamics Using High-Resolution Simulations
David J. Bodine, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. E. Reinhart, M. A. Satrio, T. Maruyama, and F. T. Lombardo

Handout (32.8 MB)


Poster Session 1G
Tornado Environments and Climatologies
Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
50
Relationship of Low-Level Instability and Tornado Damage Rating Based on Observed Soundings
Richard M. Mosier, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK; and N. L. Hampshire, T. M. Ryan, and D. Cavanaugh

51
Environments of Supercellular Satellite Tornadoes
Roger Edwards, SPC, Norman, OK; and A. R. Dean
Manuscript (628.4 kB)

52
Tornadoes in Hurricane Harvey: Documentation and Environmental Analysis
Roger Edwards, SPC, Norman, OK; and S. Overpeck, G. R. Woodall, and C. J. Nowotarski
Manuscript (2.2 MB)

54
The Dependence of Tornado Activity on Terrain: Applying Bayes Law to the Historical Record in Arkansas
ZhanXiang Hua, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and D. R. Chavas

55
U.S. Violent Tornadoes Relative to the Position of the 850 mb Jet
Chris Broyles, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and C. K. Potvin, C. C. Crosbie, R. M. Rabin, and P. S. Skinner
Manuscript (1.4 MB)

Handout (1.7 MB)

56
A Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Framework for Correcting Reporting Bias in the U.S. Tornado Database
Corey K. Potvin, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and C. Broyles, P. S. Skinner, and H. E. Brooks

Handout (1.2 MB)

57
Location and Frequency of Surface Lows and Lower-Tropospheric Jets for U.S. Violent Tornadoes
Chris Broyles, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and C. K. Potvin, C. C. Crosbie, R. M. Rabin, and P. S. Skinner
Manuscript (1.5 MB)

Handout (5.1 MB)

58
59
The Temporal Evolution of Tornadic and Non-Tornadic VORTEX2 Near-Storm Environments
Austin D Mansfield, UNC, Charlotte, NC; and C. E. Davenport

Handout (17.8 MB)

60
The Northern Tornadoes Project – Overview and Initial Results
David Sills, Environment and Climate Change, Toronto, ON, Canada; and G. A. Kopp, E. Hong, J. Kennell, A. Jaffe, and L. Elliott
Manuscript (1.4 MB)

Handout (1.7 MB)

61
"Volatility of Tornadogenesis" in VORTEX2 Far-field Environments
Matthew D. Flournoy, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and E. N. Rasmussen and M. C. Coniglio

62
Quantifying the Relationship between Southern-End Supercells and Tornado Production
Susan Beveridge, Ohio Univ., Bellville, OH; and J. B. Houser and S. R. Marzola

Handout (3.9 MB)

63

Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

6:00 PM-8:00 PM: Monday, 22 October 2018


Icebreaker Reception
Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Tuesday, 23 October 2018

8:30 AM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 23 October 2018


Registration
Location: Beatrice room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

9:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 23 October 2018

Recording files available
Session 4
Bridging the Gap: Mesoscale Convective Systems
Location: Pinnacle room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Casey E. Davenport, Univ. of North Carolina at Charlotte
9:00 AM
4.1
Progress in Forecasting Derechoes with the NCAR-WRF High-Resolution Ensemble
Morris Weisman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. S. Schwartz and K. W. Manning
9:30 AM
4.3
9:45 AM
4.4
Coastal Mid-Atlantic Squall Line Behavior
Kelly Lombardo, Univ. of Connecticut, Groton, CT; and R. M. Hastings
10:00 AM
4.5
External vs. Self-Organization of Nocturnal MCSs from PECAN
Matthew D. Parker, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC
10:15 AM

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 23 October 2018


Coffee Break
Location: Pinnacle Lobby (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

11:00 AM-12:30 PM: Tuesday, 23 October 2018

Recording files available
Session 5
The Future of Modeling and Prediction
Location: Pinnacle room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Logan C. Dawson, IMSG and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC
11:00 AM
5.1
Progress in High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Deterministic and Ensemble Development for Convective Hazard Forecasts
Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and D. C. Dowell, T. Alcott, T. Ladwig, M. Hu, J. Duda, G. Ge, T. G. Smirnova, J. B. Olson, J. Kenyon, J. Beck, I. Jankov, E. P. James, S. S. Weygandt, S. Benjamin, J. M. Brown, G. Grell, J. A. Hamilton, M. B. Smith, and D. D. Turner
11:30 AM
5.2
Convection-Allowing Modeling and Analysis Efforts at EMC
Jacob R. Carley, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and E. Rogers, T. Black, W. S. Wu, B. T. Blake, E. Aligo, M. E. Pyle, G. Zhao, M. Pondeca, R. Yang, D. E. Lippi, J. Kain, J. C. Derber, and C. R. Alexander
11:45 AM
5.3
Evaluating the Depiction of Severe Convection in FV3
Burkely T. Gallo, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and A. J. Clark, I. L. Jirak, C. P. Kalb, B. Roberts, T. Jensen, S. R. Dembek, Y. Wang, M. Xue, F. Kong, C. Zhang, T. A. Supinie, L. M. Harris, and S. J. Lin
12:00 PM
5.4
Evaluating the Impact of Stochastic Physics in a Convection-Allowing Ensemble for Severe Weather Forecasting
Robert M. Hepper, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak, A. J. Clark, B. T. Gallo, J. K. Wolff, I. Jankov, K. W. Thomas, F. Kong, and M. Xue
12:15 PM
5.5
An Evaluation of Paired Regional/Convection-Allowing Model-Forecast Vertical Profiles in Warm-Season, Thunderstorm-Supporting Environments
Clark Evans, Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and S. J. Weiss, I. L. Jirak, A. R. Dean, and D. Nevius

12:30 PM-2:00 PM: Tuesday, 23 October 2018


Lunch Break

2:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 23 October 2018

Recording files available
Session 6A
Environmental and Terrain Impacts
Location: Pinnacle C (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado Boulder
2:15 PM
6A.2
Understanding the Topographic Controls of Severe Local Storm Environments in the United States
Daniel R. Chavas, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and K. A. Reed and F. Li
2:30 PM
6A.3
Evaluating the Effects of Terrain-Channeled, Low-Level Flow on Convective Organization
William Flamholtz, SUNY, Albany, NY; and B. H. Tang and L. F. Bosart
2:45 PM
6A.4
3:00 PM
6A.5
Tornado Damage Estimation of Cities and Buildings Using Meteorological Model/LES Hybrid Method
Masaharu Kawaguchi, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Yokohama, Japan; and T. Tamura, H. Kawai, and W. Mashiko

3:15 PM
6A.6
Recording files available
Session 6B
Mesoscale Convective Systems
Location: Pinnacle AB (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Corey K. Potvin, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL
2:45 PM
6B.4
An Analysis of the 1 October 2017 Derecho in Southern Brazil
Bruno Z. Ribeiro, INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil; and L. F. Bosart and M. E. Seluchi
3:00 PM
6B.5

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 23 October 2018


Poster Session 2A
Advanced Data Assimilation and Prediction Techniques and Systems
Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
65
Convective-Scale Ensemble Subsetting with Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis
Austin A Coleman, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and B. C. Ancell

66
Ensemble-based Singular Value Decomposition Analysis for a Local Rainfall Event Predicted by Water Vapor Assimilation
Sho Yokota, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and H. Seko, N. Nagumo, H. Yamauchi, R. Kudo, T. Sakai, Y. Shoji, T. Kawabata, Y. Ikuta, and H. Niino

67
Test of a Hybrid Dual-Resolution Ensemble Variational Analysis and Forecast System during the HWT Spring Experiments in 2018
Yunheng Wang, CIMMS, Norman, OK; and J. Gao, P. Skinner, K. H. Knopfmeier, T. A. Jones, G. J. Creager, P. L. Heinselman, and L. J. Wicker

68
Convection-Allowing Applications of FV3 at EMC
Benjamin T. Blake, IMSG and NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and T. Black, E. Rogers, E. Aligo, J. Abeles, J. R. Carley, and J. S. Kain

69
The Future of the HRRR: Data Assimilation Advances for Version 4
Jeffrey D. Duda, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and D. Dowell, C. R. Alexander, Y. Wang, and X. Wang

70
Development of a GSI-Based EnKF System with Polarimetric Radar Data Assimilation Capabilities for Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasts
Bryan J. Putnam, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and Y. Jung, N. Yussouf, D. R. Stratman, T. A. Supinie, and M. Xue

71
72
Several Challenges of Predicting Utility Outages: A Description of Two "Tail End" Events
Nick P. Bassill, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. G. Fovell

73
Exploring the Use of Ensembles for Real Time Diagnosis of the Severe Storm Environment
Michael C. Coniglio, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. H. Knopfmeier and B. Roberts

Handout (14.6 MB)

75
Development of a Hybrid EnVar and Ensemble Kalman Filter Analysis and Forecast System for Convective Scale NWP
Jidong Gao, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and Y. Yang, Y. Wang, K. H. Knopfmeier, S. Pan, P. Skinner, Q. Xu, and L. J. Wicker

76
Evaluating Potential Future Configurations of the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast System
Burkely T. Gallo, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and B. Roberts, I. L. Jirak, A. J. Clark, C. P. Kalb, and T. Jensen

Handout (3.2 MB)


Poster Session 2B
Remote Sensing and In Situ Observations of Severe Storms
Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
77
An Object-Based Tornado Debris Signature Detection Algorithm
Jeffrey C. Snyder, NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. Krause and A. Witt

78
GOES-R: A Paradigm Shift in Severe Weather Forecasting and Research
Kathryn W. Mozer, NOAA/NESDIS/OSPO, Greenbelt, MD; and M. Seybold, D. T. Lindsey, E. M. Kline, W. M. MacKenzie Jr., and C. M. Gravelle

79
Severe Convective Storm and Tornado Data Collected by RaXPol During the 2017 and 2018 Spring Seasons
Howard B. Bluestein, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and Z. B. Wienhoff, D. W. Reif, and B. L. Cheong

84
The Streamwise Vorticity Current: Its Origin and Strategies For Remote Detection
Austin W. Dixon, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and L. Orf and K. T. Halbert

85
Tornado and Hail Infrasound Observations during Severe Storms
Christopher E. Petrin, Oklahoma State Univ., Stillwater, OK; and M. S. Van Den Broeke and B. R. Elbing

86
Incorporating Dual-Polarization Signatures into the Tornado Warning Process for Supercells: ZDR/KDP Separation and Size Sorting Signals
Michael L. Jurewicz Sr., NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Johnson City, NY; and C. M. Gitro, M. R. Kumjian, and M. M. French

88
Observed Bulk Hook Echo Drop-Size Distribution Evolution in Supercell Tornadogenesis
Kristofer S. Tuftedal, Stony Brook Univ., SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and M. M. French, D. M. Kingfield, and J. C. Snyder

89
Cataloging Rapid Scan Observations of ZDR Columns in Supercells
Derrek Dalman, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and R. Tanamachi, P. E. Saunders, B. L. Cheong, D. J. Bodine, H. B. Bluestein, and Z. B. Weinhoff
Manuscript (354.6 kB)

90
Using Overshooting Top Area to Discriminate Large, Intense Tornadoes
Geoffrey Marion, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and R. J. Trapp and S. W. Nesbitt

91
Single-Doppler Velocity Retrieval of the Wind Field in a Tornadic Supercell Using Data From a Mobile, Phased-Array, Doppler Radar
Yu-Chieng Liou, National Central Univ., Taoyuan, Taiwan; and H. B. Bluestein, M. M. French, and Z. B. Wienhoff

92
How Well do ZDR Arc Metrics Indicate Potential for Strong Low-Level Rotation in Supercells?
Matthew B. Wilson, Univ. of Nebraska—Lincoln, Lincoln, NE; and M. S. Van Den Broeke

93
Analysis of Radar-Estimated Rotation and Divergence Associated with Kinematic Features Observed During RiVorS
Matthew C. Mahalik, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and E. N. Rasmussen, S. S. Murdzek, and S. Waugh

94
Analysis of a QLCS Vortex and Multiple Vortices Within a Mesocyclone Using S-Band and Close-Range X-Band Doppler Radar
Dylan W. Reif, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. B. Bluestein and Z. B. Wienhoff

95
Single-Doppler Evidence of Supercell Vorticity Rivers
Erik Rasmussen, Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, Norman, OK; and M. D. Flournoy, S. S. Murdzek, M. C. Mahalik, Z. B. Weinhoff, and H. Bluestein

96
Mobile Mesonet Observations Near Vorticity Rivers in Supercells
Shawn S. Murdzek, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and E. Rasmussen and M. D. Flournoy

97
Comprehensive Analysis and Regional and Seasonal Differences of Tornado Debris Signatures Associated with Significant Tornadoes from 2010-2017
Steven E. Nelson, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Peachtree City, GA; and A. K. Baker and S. W. Emmerson


Poster Session 2C
Severe Storm Modeling and Observations for Education
Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
98
A NEw, Polarimetric, X-band Teaching and Research Radar (XTRRA) at Purdue Univ.
Robin Tanamachi, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and D. T. Dawson II, E. Agee, and M. Baldwin

99
Integration of Research-Grade Meteorological Instrumentation into a Severe Storms Field Work Course at Purdue Univ.
Robin Tanamachi, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and D. T. Dawson II and L. Carleton Parker


Poster Session 2D
Severe Storms in Heterogeneous Environments
Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
100
The Role of Direct Insolation and Near-Surface Moisture Advection in the Recovery of CAPE on 31 March 2016 During VORTEX-Southeast
Allison T. LaFleur, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and R. Tanamachi, D. T. Dawson II, S. Frasier, J. Waldinger, and D. D. Turner

101
Spatial Gradients in Convective Parameters and Their Influence on Storm Dynamics and Structure
Justine A. Sulia, Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY; and M. R. Kumjian and Z. J. Lebo

102
High-Shear Low-CAPE Supercell Simulations
Andrew Wade, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and M. D. Parker

Handout (13.5 MB)

103
Examining Terrain Effects on the 31 May 1998 Mechanicville, New York Supercell and Tornado
Luke Justin LeBel, SUNY, Albany, NY; and B. H. Tang and R. A. Lazear

104
Simulated Changes in Storm Morphology Associated with a Sea-Breeze Airmass
Joshua Hartigan, Univ. of Technology Sydney, Ultimo, Australia; and R. A. Warren, J. S. Soderholm, and H. Richter

105
The Impact of Terrain on Supercells Using Idealized Numerical Simulations
Anthony E. Reinhart, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. J. Bodine and F. T. Lombardo

108
Impact of Terrain on Supercells According to Idealized Simulations with Actual Terrain
George H. Bryan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Romine, S. B. Trier, and D. Ahijevych

Handout (11.3 MB)

109
Impact of Orography on Updraft Rotation in Simulated Supercells
Johannes Dahl, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and C. C. Weiss, E. C. Bruning, D. Dowell, and C. R. Alexander

110
Revisiting the Influence of Topography on Local Convective Environments Using High-Resolution Model Output
Branden Katona, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and P. Markowski


Poster Session 2E
Severe Storms: Risk, Vulnerability, and Communication; FACETs
Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
112
Three Years of Hazard Services – Probabilistic Hazard Information (HS-PHI) Experiments at the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed
Gregory J. Stumpf, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory, Norman, OK; and T. L. Hansen, A. V. Bates, C. Golden, Y. Guo, J. J. James, J. G. LaDue, C. Ling, K. L. Manross, and T. C. Meyer

Handout (4.0 MB)

113
Developing and Testing Watch-Scale Forecast Products in the FACETs Paradigm
Makenzie Krocak, Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, Norman, OK; and H. E. Brooks

115
Investigation of the Local Torrential Rains in Ordos on July 7-10,2016
Xuefeng MENG, Inner Mongolian Meteorological Observatory, Hohhot, China

117
Design and Integration of Probabilities for Hazard Information in Hazard Services to Operationalize FACETs Concepts
Daniel Nietfeld, NOAA/OAR/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and K. L. Manross, T. L. Hansen, D. M. Kingfield, and H. Obermeier

118
The Use of Hazard Services Recommenders for Convective Weather Products: Facilitating Severe Weather Research to Operations
Daniel Nietfeld, NOAA/OAR/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and K. L. Manross, D. M. Kingfield, N. Hardin, T. L. Hansen, Y. Guo, C. Golden, and H. Obermeier


Poster Session 2F
Studies of Model Forecasts; Forecast Verification
Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
120
Determining Missed Events when Evaluating Probabilistic Convective Outlooks
Nathan M. Hitchens, Ball State Univ., Muncie, IN; and I. L. Jirak

Handout (1.3 MB)

121
Relating Convective Mode Information to SPC Tornado Outlook Verification
Andrew R. Dean, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and R. L. Thompson and B. T. Smith
Manuscript (980.2 kB)

Handout (903.9 kB)

122
Testing the Feature Alignment Technique (FAT) with Multiple Storms
Derek R. Stratman, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and C. K. Potvin and L. J. Wicker

123
Comparison of the HRRR Time-Lagged Ensemble to Formal CAM Ensembles during the 2018 HWT Spring Forecasting Experiment
Israel L. Jirak, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and B. Roberts, B. T. Gallo, and A. J. Clark

Handout (857.1 kB)

124
Information, Predictability, and Verification at the Thunderstorm Scale
John R. Lawson, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and C. K. Potvin and M. L. Flora

Handout (21.2 MB)

126
Lessons Learned from Three Years of Real-time Experiments with the NEWS-e
Kent H. Knopfmeier, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and P. Skinner, D. M. Wheatley, T. A. Jones, N. Yussouf, J. J. Choate, D. C. Dowell, L. J. Wicker, P. L. Heinselman, A. E. Reinhart, T. T. Ladwig, C. R. Alexander, J. Hu, S. Mallick, K. A. Wilson, J. Gao, Y. Wang, and G. J. Creager


Poster Session 2G
Tools for the Analysis and Prediction of Severe Storms
Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
130
A Python-Based Tracking Algorithm for Coarse Temporal Resolution WRF-Simulated Supercells
Matthew Gropp, Univ. of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and C. E. Davenport

Handout (244.1 kB)

131
Web-based Visualization and Evaluation of Convection-Allowing Ensembles in the 2018 HWT Spring Forecasting Experiment
Brett Roberts, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, NOAA/OAR/NSSL and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak, A. J. Clark, S. J. Weiss, B. T. Gallo, R. M. Hepper, C. P. Kalb, and T. Jensen

Handout (1.5 MB)


Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

7:30 PM-9:00 PM: Tuesday, 23 October 2018

Recording files available
Session 7
Convective Storm Structure and Dynamics
Location: Pinnacle room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Matt Kumjian, Penn State Univ.
8:00 PM
7.2
New Insights into Convective Updraft Kinematics and Microphysics Provided By a Network of High-Resolution, Rapid-Scanning X-Band Polarimetric Radars
Marcus van Lier-Walqui, Columbia Univ. & NASA/GISS, New York, NY; and S. Lytle, M. R. Kumjian, Z. Feng, A. Mendendorp, and S. Collis
8:45 PM
7.5

Wednesday, 24 October 2018

8:30 AM-3:30 PM: Wednesday, 24 October 2018


Registration
Location: Beatrice room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

9:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 24 October 2018

Recording files available
Session 8
Bridging the Gap: Supercells
Location: Pinnacle room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Ian M. Giammanco, Texas Tech University
9:00 AM
8.1
The Spectrum of US Right-Moving Supercell Environments Revealed Through Self-Organizing Maps
Robert A. Warren, Monash Univ., Melbourne, Australia; and R. Dalal, H. Richter, and R. L. Thompson
9:15 AM
8.2
Environmental Evolution of Long-Lived Supercells
Casey E. Davenport, Univ. of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC
9:30 AM
8.3
Intercomparison Between Polarimetric Radar, GOES-16 Satellite, and Lightning Indicators of Storm Severity in Supercells
Michael M. French, Stony Brook Univ., SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and J. C. Snyder, K. M. Bedka, and K. M. Calhoun
9:45 AM
8.4
Kinematics, Thermodynamics, and Microphysics of the Tornadic 13-14 April 2018 Calhoun, La Supercell during VORTEX-SE
Conrad L. Ziegler, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and T. A. Murphy, K. L. Elmore, M. I. Biggerstaff, Z. Wang, E. N. Rasmussen, D. P. Jorgensen, and A. A. Alford

10:15 AM
Discussion

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Wednesday, 24 October 2018


Coffee Break
Location: Pinnacle Lobby (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

11:00 AM-12:30 PM: Wednesday, 24 October 2018

Recording files available
Session 9
Climate and Seasonal Variability
Location: Pinnacle room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Alexandra Anderson-Frey, The Pennsylvania State University
11:00 AM
9.1
Modeling the Implications of Climate Change on Lightning, Hail and Wind in Europe
Anja T. Rädler, European Severe Storms Laboratory, Wessling, Germany; and P. Groenemeijer, T. Pucik, C. M. Castellano, R. Sausen, and E. Faust
11:30 AM
9.2
Toward Understanding Future Changes in the Tornado and Severe Hail Landscapes of Eastern Colorado
Samuel J. Childs, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher
11:45 AM
9.3
Climatology and Large-Scale Dynamics of High-Shear, Low-CAPE Derechos in Germany
Christoph Gatzen, Freie Universitaet Berlin, Berlin, Germany; and L. Schielicke
12:00 PM
9.4
ENSO-driven Seasonal Variability in Hail, Tornadoes and Losses
John T. Allen, Central Michigan Univ., Mt. Pleasant, MI; and M. J. Molina, V. A. Gensini, E. Faust, M. Steuer, and J. Eichner
12:15 PM
9.5
Dynamically-Downscaled Estimates of Favorable Convective Environments and Storms Over the Upper Midwestern U.S.
Emily N. Tinney, Central Michigan Univ., Mt Pleasant, MI; and J. T. Allen and D. B. Kluver

12:30 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 24 October 2018


Student Networking Luncheon
Location: Green Mountain room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

12:30 PM-2:00 PM: Wednesday, 24 October 2018


Lunch Break

2:00 PM-3:30 PM: Wednesday, 24 October 2018

Recording files available
Session 10A
Prediction 2
Location: Pinnacle C (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: John Allen, Central Michigan Univ.
2:00 PM
10A.1
An Examination of Dryline Convection Initiation Using Machine Learning
Trevor Mitchell, Univ. of Manchester, Manchester, U.K.; and D. M. Schultz

2:30 PM
10A.3
Assimilating Cloud Observations in the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRRE)
Therese T. Ladwig, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and D. C. Dowell, M. Hu, C. R. Alexander, S. S. Weygandt, and S. Benjamin
2:45 PM
10A.4
Impact of Assimilating High-Density GOES-Derived Wind Vectors on Numerical Analyses of Severe Storm Environments
James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO; and J. Wurman, K. L. Rasmussen, and R. Rabin
3:00 PM
10A.5
The NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for Ensembles at the 2018 NOAA Hydrometeorology Testbed Experiments
Nusrat Yussouf, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and T. A. Jones, P. Skinner, K. H. Knopfmeier, D. C. Dowell, J. Hu, X. Wang, D. D. Turner, K. A. Wilson, P. L. Heinselman, T. Alcott, G. J. Creager, J. J. Choate, L. J. Wicker, A. E. Reinhart, J. Zhang, S. M. Martinaitis, T. Ladwig, C. R. Alexander, and J. J. Gourley
3:15 PM
10A.6
Showing Value in Classic ROC Performance...Diagrams
Harold E. Brooks, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. Correia Jr. and B. T. Gallo
Recording files available
Session 10B
Tornadoes
Location: Pinnacle AB (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Jared L. Guyer, NOAA/NWS
2:00 PM
10B.1
Spatial Trends in United States Tornado Frequency
Victor A. Gensini, Northern Illinois Univ., DeKalb, IL; and H. E. Brooks
2:15 PM
10B.2
2:30 PM
10B.3
2:45 PM
10B.4
Development of Verification Techniques for the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for Ensembles (NEWS-e)
Patrick S. Skinner, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. H. Knopfmeier, J. J. Choate, B. T. Gallo, J. R. Lawson, A. E. Reinhart, T. A. Jones, N. Yussouf, D. C. Dowell, K. A. Wilson, L. J. Wicker, and P. L. Heinselman
3:00 PM
10B.5
High-Resolution Simulation of a Violent Tornado in the 27 April 2011 Outbreak Environment
Catherine A. Finley, Saint Louis Univ., St. Louis, MO; and L. Orf, B. D. Lee, and R. B. Wilhelmson
3:15 PM
10B.6
An Investigation of the Relationship between Doppler Vortex Signatures and Polarimetric Debris Signatures in Damaging Tornadoes
Zachary B. Wienhoff, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. B. Bluestein, L. J. Wicker, D. J. Bodine, B. L. Cheong, D. W. Reif, and N. Dahl

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 24 October 2018

Thursday, 25 October 2018

8:30 AM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 25 October 2018


Registration
Location: Beatrice room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

9:00 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 25 October 2018

Recording files available
Session 11
Bridging the Gap: Hail
Location: Pinnacle room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Zach Lebo, Penn State University
9:00 AM
11.1
An Overview of the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety's Hail Research Program
Tanya M. Brown-Giammanco, Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety, Richburg, SC; and I. M. Giammanco
9:15 AM
11.2
Observing Deep Hail Accumulations on the Colorado and Wyoming Front Range
Robinson Wallace, Univ. of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO; and K. Friedrich, B. Meier, W. Deierling, E. A. Kalina, P. T. Schlatter, and M. Serpas
9:45 AM
11.4
Hailstone S-band Radar Signatures and Comparisons to Spheroids
Zhiyuan Jiang, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and M. R. Kumjian, R. S. Schrom, I. M. Giammanco, T. M. Brown-Giammanco, H. E. Estes, R. Maiden, and A. Heymsfield
10:15 AM

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 25 October 2018


Coffee Break
Location: Pinnacle Lobby (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

11:00 AM-12:30 PM: Thursday, 25 October 2018

Recording files available
Session 12
Risk, Vulnerability, and Communication
Location: Pinnacle room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Kelsey N. Ellis, Univ. of Tennessee
11:00 AM
12.1
Risk, Information, and Vulnerability for Evolving Tornado Threats in the Southeast
Julie L. Demuth, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Vickery, H. Lazrus, J. Henderson, R. E. Morss, K. D. Ash, D. C. Smith, K. M. Anderson, and L. Palen
11:30 AM
12.2
Uses of Frequently Updating Probabilistic Warn-on-Forecast Guidance
Pamela L. Heinselman, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and T. Lindley, K. J. Sanders, A. E. Cohen, M. T. Eckert, A. Orrison, K. A. Wilson, P. S. Skinner, J. J. Choate, and K. H. Knopfmeier
11:45 AM
12.3
Broadcast Meteorologist Decision Making in the 2018 Hazardous Weather Testbed Probabilistic Hazard Information Project
Holly Obermeier, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and K. L. Nemunaitis-Berry, K. E. Klockow-McClain, T. C. Meyer, A. Campbell, A. Gerard, and C. Kolakoski
12:00 PM
12.4
Broadcast Meteorologist Use of Social Media in the 2018 Hazardous Weather Testbed Probabilistic Hazard Information Project
Caroline Kolakoski, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and K. Berry, H. Obermeier, A. Gerard, K. E. Klockow-McClain, A. Campbell, and T. C. Meyer
12:15 PM
12.5
Visualization and Communication of Probabilistic Lightning Hazard Information for a Broad Spectrum of End Users
Tiffany C. Meyer, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. Berry, A. Campbell, K. M. Calhoun, C. Gregg, K. E. Klockow-McClain, H. Obermeier, and J. Wolfe

12:30 PM-2:00 PM: Thursday, 25 October 2018


Lunch Break

2:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 25 October 2018

Recording files available
Session 13A
Hail
Location: Pinnacle C (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Anja T. Rädler, European Severe Storms Laboratory
2:00 PM
13A.1
A Climatological Study of Hail Occurrence using the MRMS MESH Product
Skylar S. Williams, Oklahoma Univ./CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. L. Ortega, A. E. Reinhart, and T. M. Smith
2:15 PM
13A.2
An Hourly Climatology of MRMS MESH-Diagnosed Severe Hail
Nathan A. Wendt, NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak
2:30 PM
13A.3
Modelling Hail Impact: How Many Hail Stones of What Size?
Juergen Grieser, Risk Management Solutions Ltd., London, U.K.
2:45 PM
13A.4
Supercell Sensitivities to Graupel and Hail Fall Speeds
Edward R. Mansell, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. T. Dawson II
3:00 PM
13A.5
Environmental and Radar Characteristics of Gargantuan Hail-Producing Storms
Rachel Gutierrez, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and M. R. Kumjian
3:15 PM
13A.6
The Influence of Environmental Variables on Hailstone Material Properties
Richard A Sirico III, Univ. of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and I. M. Giammanco, M. R. Kumjian, and T. M. Brown-Giammanco
Recording files available
Session 13B
Tornadoes 2
Location: Pinnacle AB (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Brice Evan Coffer, University of Oklahoma
2:00 PM
13B.1
What Is the Role of the Gust Front in Tornadogenesis?
Adam L. Houston, Univ. of Nebraska−Lincoln, Lincoln, NE; and C. C. Weiss, B. Argrow, and E. W. Frew
2:15 PM
13B.2
Exploring the Utility of New Diagnostics for Low-Level Rotation in High-Resolution Rapid Refresh version 3 (HRRRv3) Forecasts
Logan C. Dawson, IMSG and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and G. S. Manikin, B. T. Blake, C. R. Alexander, I. L. Jirak, and M. E. Pyle
2:30 PM
13B.3
2:45 PM
13B.4
Reevaluating Performance in the Statistical Metrics for National Weather Service Tornado Warnings
Gregory M. Schoor, NWS/AFSO/FSD, Norman, OK; and J. G. Gibbs and J. P. Camp
3:00 PM
13B.5
Diagnosing Tornado Probability—Is Estimated Wind Speed Data More Useful than EF-Scale Rating Data?
Bryan T. Smith, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and R. L. Thompson, D. Spegeher, A. R. Dean, and C. D. Karstens
3:15 PM
13B.6
Fine-scale Assessment of Mobile Home Tornado Vulnerability in the Central and Southeast U.S.
Stephen M. Strader, Villanova University, Villanova, PA; and W. S. Ashley

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 25 October 2018


Poster Session 3A
Advancements in Severe Storm Detection, Modeling, and Prediction
Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
133
Automatic Detection of Funnel Clouds from Pictures By Surveillance Cameras with Deep Learning.
Koji Sassa, Kochi Univ., Kochi, Japan; and R. Honda and Y. Fujii

134
Development of a Machine Learning-Based Tornado Detection Algorithm for the WSR-88D Network
Matthew C. Mahalik, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. L. Elmore and B. R. Smith

136
A Look at Some New HRRR Model Variables For Diagnosing Lower Level Storm Rotation and Their Relation to Tornado Potential
Edward J. Szoke, CIRA/Colorado State Univ. and NOAA/Global Systems Division, Boulder, CO; and C. R. Alexander, J. M. Brown, and E. P. James

138
Deep Learning for Real-Time Storm-Based Tornado Prediction
Ryan A. Lagerquist, CIMMS, Norman, OK; and C. R. Homeyer, A. McGovern, C. K. Potvin, T. Sandmael, and T. M. Smith

141
Strengths and Limitations of NSSL's Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for Ensembles in Forecasting Cyclic Mesocyclogenesis
Kelsey C. Britt, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and P. S. Skinner, P. L. Heinselman, and K. H. Knopfmeier

Handout (3.6 MB)

142
Impacts of UAS Data on Thunderstorm Forecasts for the 28 June 2016 PRECIP Event
George Limpert, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and A. Houston

144
Testing New Environmental Proxies for Supercell Tornadogenesis Using HRRR Analyses
Brice E. Coffer, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and M. D. Parker and H. P. Taylor

Handout (2.0 MB)

145
Comparison of Bulk Multi-Category Rimed-Ice Microphysics Parameterization using an Idealized Supercell Storm
Marcus R. Johnson, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and Y. Jung, H. Morrison, J. A. Milbrandt, and M. Xue

146
Supercell Predictability: Impacts of Intra-Storm vs. Environmental Initial Condition Spread on Ensemble Forecast Uncertainty
Montgomery L. Flora, University of Oklahoma, CIMMS, NSSL/NOAA, Norman, OK; and C. K. Potvin

147
Impact of GOES-16 Observations on Prediction of High-Impact Convective Weather
Ryan A. Sobash, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Romine and J. Bresch

148
The WRF Lightning Forecast Algorithm: Sensitivities to Microphysics and Other Physics Schemes
Eugene W. McCaul Jr., USRA, Huntsville, AL; and G. Priftis, T. Chronis, J. L. Case, S. R. Dembek, F. Kong, S. J. Goodman, and S. J. Weiss

Handout (988.8 kB)

150
Analysis of Nocturnal Convection Initiation Using Convective-Scale Data Assimilation of Observations Collected during PECAN
James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and G. Romine, J. Wurman, T. M. Weckwerth, and J. Wilson


Poster Session 3B
Severe Storm and Tornado Structure and Dynamics
Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
151
Characteristics of QLCS Downdrafts and Environments Observed during the VORTEX-Southeast Project
James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO; and K. Kosiba, J. Wurman, and P. Robinson

153
VORTEX-SE: Improving Radar Wind Retrievals in Potentially Tornadic Storms in the Southeast United States
Karen Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and J. Marquis, J. Wurman, and P. Robinson

154
Investigating the Vertical Structure of Updraft Helicity in Convection-Allowing Models
Jeffrey M. Milne, CIMMS, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak and H. E. Brooks
Manuscript (1006.5 kB)

155
Important Factors for Tornadogenesis as Revealed by High-Resolution Ensemble Forecasts of the Tsukuba F3 Tornado on 6 May 2012
Sho Yokota, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and H. Niino, H. Seko, M. Kunii, and H. Yamauchi

156
Confirming Bottom-up Tornadogenesis in the 31 May 2013 El Reno Tornado
Jana B. Houser, Ohio Univ., Athens, OH; and A. Seimon, K. J. Thiem, H. B. Bluestein, S. Talbot, J. C. Snyder, and J. Allen
Manuscript (640.7 kB)

Handout (1.8 MB)

157
Investigating Tornadogenesis from Quasi-Linear Convective Systems in the U.K.
Ty J. Buckingham, NERC, Manchester, U.K.; and D. M. Schultz

158
Sensitivity of Tornado Evolution to Changes in 0-500 m Wind Shear in High-Resolution Simulations
Michelle A Elmore, Saint Louis Univ., St Louis, MO; and C. A. Finley, L. Orf, B. D. Lee, and R. B. Wilhelmson

159
Simulated ZDR Arcs and Tornadogenesis: A Preliminary Study
Allison T. LaFleur, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and R. Tanamachi, D. T. Dawson II, and B. E. Coffer

160
Cold Pool Horizontal Streamwise Vorticity During Tornadogenesis and Maintenance in a Simulated Supercell Thunderstorm
Kelton T. Halbert, Univ. of Wisconsin/CIMSS, Madison, WI; and L. Orf and A. W. Dixon

161
Observed Relationship between Tornado EF Rating and Pre-Tornadic Mesocyclone Width
Michael Sessa, Valparaiso Univ., Valparaiso, IN; and R. J. Trapp and J. Einbinder

162
Observational Validation of Layer-Lifting Metrics of Convective Instability for Determining the Dissipation of Severe MCSs
Diego A. Alfaro, National Autonomous Univ. of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; and M. C. Coniglio

Handout (3.9 MB)

163
Structures and Evolutions of Meso-β-scale Vortices that Spawned Tornado-like Vortices.
Eigo Tochimoto, The Univ. of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan; and S. Yokota, H. Niino, and W. Yanase

164
The Role of Boundary-Parallel Vertical Shear in Convection Initiation
Alexander J. Krull, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and A. L. Houston

165
Lower Atmosphere Process Studies at Elevation - a Remotely-piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE)
Adam L. Houston, Univ. of Nebraska−Lincoln, Lincoln, NE; and G. de Boer, J. Jacob, C. Diehl, P. B. Chilson, B. Argrow, J. Elston, J. Intrieri, D. A. Lawrence, J. K. Lundquist, J. O. Pinto, and S. Smith

166
Tornadogenesis Failure in the Prospect Valley, CO, Supercell of 26 May 2010 Intercepted By VORTEX2
Shawn Murdzek, The Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and P. Markowski, Y. Richardson, and R. Tanamachi

167
What Gives Supercells a Leg-up over Ordinary Convection in Resisting Entrainment?
John M. Peters, NPS, Pacific Grove, CA; and H. Morrison

168
The Influence of Lifting Condensation Level on Low-Level Outflow and Rotation in Simulated Supercell Thunderstorms
Matthew Brown, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and C. J. Nowotarski

Handout (1.5 MB)

170
Effects of Precipitation "Bursts" on Supercell Dynamics in Idealized Simulations
Scott Loeffler, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and M. R. Kumjian and P. Markowski

171
Defining a Galilean Invariant Curvature Vorticity and Its Application to the Dynamics of Vortex-Genesis in a Supercell
Luke E. Odell, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli, A. M. Fenrich, S. T. Trevorrow, and M. L. Buker


Poster Session 3C
Severe Storm Case Studies
Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
172
A Case Study of Kinematical, Microphysical, and Lightning Characteristics of a Tornadic Supercell
Milind Sharma, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and R. Tanamachi, E. C. Bruning, K. M. Calhoun, H. B. Bluestein, J. B. Houser, J. C. Snyder, and Z. B. Wienhoff
Manuscript (975.2 kB)

Handout (2.3 MB)

175
Comparison of Tornadic and Nontornadic Convective Cells in Hurricane Harvey
Christopher J. Nowotarski, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and R. Cheatham, S. Overpeck, and R. Edwards

177
The Unusual Evolution of the Entire Life of a Tornadic Supercell in South-Central Kansas and North-Central Oklahoma on 14 May 2018
Howard B. Bluestein, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and Z. B. Wienhoff and D. W. Reif

179
Genesis and Structure of the 2013 El Reno, Oklahoma Tornado: Comparison of Cloud Model Simulations and Ground-Truth Observations
Anton Seimon, Appalachian State Univ., Boone, NC; and L. Orf, J. B. Houser, J. T. Allen, S. Talbot, J. C. Snyder, and H. B. Bluestein

180
The 'Cross-Border' Tornado Outbreak of 24 August 2016 - Analysis of the Two Tornadoes in Ontario
David Sills, Environment and Climate Change, Toronto, ON, Canada; and E. Hong, A. Jaffe, S. Stevenson, and G. A. Kopp
Manuscript (2.7 MB)

Handout (2.5 MB)

182
Damage Assessment and Analysis of Storm Evolution Associated with a Significant Episode of Cold-Season Tornadic Activity in Southern Brazil.
Murilo Machado Lopes, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, Brazil; and V. Ferreira, C. Kannenberg, P. F. Feldhaus, R. N. Azevedo, M. I. D. Oliveira, T. Bremm, E. L. Nascimento, V. Anabor, M. F. L. Quadro, F. S. Puhales, and D. R. Roberti

183
184
An Idealized Modeling Study of the Nontornadic and Tornadic Supercells Intercepted by VORTEX2 on 10 June 2010
Alicia Klees, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and Y. Richardson

186
A Multi-Scale Analysis of the 18 May 2017 Severe Weather Event across Eastern New York and Western New England
Thomas A. Wasula, NOAA/NWS, Albany, NY; and B. J. Frugis and M. S. Evans

Handout (4.5 MB)

187
Evolution of the Tornadic 13-14 April 2018 Quasi-Linear Convective System (QLCS) Observed During VORTEX-SE 2018
Michael I. Biggerstaff, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. A. Alford, G. D. Carrie, C. King, T. A. Murphy, N. R. Slaughter, C. L. Ziegler, and E. N. Rasmussen

188
Analyses of a Simulated Severe MCS and Tornadic Mesovortex Observed by PECAN on 5-6 July 2015
Matthew D. Flournoy, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. C. Coniglio

189
Environment and Evolution of the 3 April 2018 Tornadic QLCS across North Alabama during VORTEX-SE
Anthony W. Lyza, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and K. R. Knupp, M. I. Biggerstaff, and A. A. Alford

193
A “Back-building” Multi-Supercell Case in an Eastern China Coastal Metropolitan City
Jianhua Dai, Shanghai Central Meteorological Observatory, Xuhui, Shanghai, China; and M. Sun, Y. CHANG, H. Chen, and J. Zhu

194
An Investigation of Mesoscale Processes and Convective Morphology on 27 April 2011
Manda B. Chasteen, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. E. Koch

195
Multiscale Processes Leading to the Development and Longevity of a Mesoscale Convective System
Manda B. Chasteen, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. E. Koch and D. B. Parsons

196
Preliminary Results from the 2018 National Robotics Initiative Field Project
Christopher C. Weiss, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and A. L. Houston, E. W. Frew, B. Argrow, A. L. Hutson, and A. Schueth


Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Friday, 26 October 2018

8:30 AM-12:00 PM: Friday, 26 October 2018


Registration
Location: Beatrice room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

9:00 AM-10:30 AM: Friday, 26 October 2018

Recording files available
Session 14
New Tools for Prediction and Analysis
Location: Pinnacle room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Robin Tanamachi, NOAA/NSSL
9:00 AM
14.1
The Above Anvil Cirrus Plume: An Important Severe Weather Indicator in Visible and Infrared Satellite Imagery
Kristopher M. Bedka, NASA, Hampton, VA; and E. M. Murillo, C. R. Homeyer, B. Scarino, and H. Mersiovsky
9:30 AM
14.3
9:45 AM
14.4
Using Machine Learning to Improve 1-h Probabilistic Low-Level Rotation Forecasts.
Montgomery L. Flora, University of Oklahoma, CIMMS, NSSL/NOAA, Norman, OK; and C. K. Potvin, P. S. Skinner, and A. McGovern
10:00 AM
14.5
Testing of Scorecards for Convection Allowing Models during HWT 2018
Christina P. Kalb, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. Jensen, B. T. Gallo, A. J. Clark, B. Roberts, P. S. Skinner, and C. R. Alexander
10:15 AM
14.6
An Australian Climatology of Severe Convective Wind Storms Using Bayesian Hierarchical Modelling
Alessio C Spassiani, Univ. of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia; and M. S. Mason, R. J. Krupar III, and V. Cheng

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Friday, 26 October 2018


Coffee Break
Location: Pinnacle Lobby (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

11:00 AM-12:45 PM: Friday, 26 October 2018

Recording files available
Session 15
Using Radar to Understand and Predict Severe Storms
Location: Pinnacle room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Patrick S. Skinner, NSSL
11:15 AM
15.2
Improving Vertical Velocity Retrievals from Doppler Radar Observations of Supercells
Nathan Dahl, School of Meteorology, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. M. Shapiro, C. K. Potvin, A. K. Theisen, J. G. Gebauer, A. D. Schenkman, and M. Xue
11:30 AM
15.3A
Tornado Visualization and Doppler Radar Analysis Project
Thomas Dolan, Independent Geographer, Rocklin, CA
Manuscript (1.4 MB)

Handout (4.2 MB) Handout (11.8 MB)

12:00 PM
15.4
Observations of Severe Storms By a Novel, Polarimetric, Phased Array Mobile Radar
Robin Tanamachi, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and A. T. LaFleur, M. Sharma, S. J. Frasier, W. Heberling, and C. Wolsieffer
12:30 PM
15.6
Optimal Temporal Frequency of the Next Generation Phased Array Radar Observations for Storm-Scale Data Assimilation
Derek R. Stratman, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and N. Yussouf, Y. Jung, T. A. Supinie, and B. J. Putnam
12:45 PM
Concluding Remarks

12:45 PM-1:00 PM: Friday, 26 October 2018


Conference Adjourns