Session 5 The Future of Modeling and Prediction

Tuesday, 23 October 2018: 11:00 AM-12:30 PM
Pinnacle room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Logan C. Dawson, I.M. Systems Group, Inc. and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD

11:00 AM
Progress in High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Deterministic and Ensemble Development for Convective Hazard Forecasts
Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and D. C. Dowell, T. Alcott, T. Ladwig, M. Hu, J. Duda, G. Ge, T. G. Smirnova, J. B. Olson, J. Kenyon, J. Beck, I. Jankov, E. P. James, S. S. Weygandt, S. Benjamin, J. M. Brown, G. Grell, J. A. Hamilton, M. B. Smith, and D. D. Turner
11:30 AM
Convection-Allowing Modeling and Analysis Efforts at EMC
J. R. Carley, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and E. Rogers, T. Black, W. S. Wu, B. T. Blake, E. Aligo, M. E. Pyle, G. Zhao, M. Pondeca, R. Yang, D. E. Lippi, J. Kain, J. C. Derber, and C. R. Alexander
11:45 AM
Evaluating the Depiction of Severe Convection in FV3
Burkely T. Gallo, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and A. J. Clark, I. L. Jirak, C. P. Kalb, B. Roberts, T. Jensen, S. R. Dembek, Y. Wang, M. Xue, F. Kong, C. Zhang, T. A. Supinie, L. M. Harris, and S. J. Lin
12:00 PM
Evaluating the Impact of Stochastic Physics in a Convection-Allowing Ensemble for Severe Weather Forecasting
Robert M. Hepper, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak, A. J. Clark, B. T. Gallo, J. K. Wolff, I. Jankov, K. W. Thomas, F. Kong, and M. Xue
12:15 PM
An Evaluation of Paired Regional/Convection-Allowing Model-Forecast Vertical Profiles in Warm-Season, Thunderstorm-Supporting Environments
Clark Evans, Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and S. J. Weiss, I. L. Jirak, A. R. Dean, and D. Nevius
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