Program: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms (29th Conference on Severe Local Storms)

Registration Opens

Location: Beatrice room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Registration

Location: Beatrice room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Session 1

Bridging the Gap: Tornadoes

Location: Pinnacle room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Jana B. Houser, Ohio Univ.

8:45 AM

Welcoming Remarks

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

1.1

Tornadic Near-Storm Environments of the Southeastern United States

Alexandra Anderson-Frey, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and Y. P. Richardson, A. R. Dean, R. L. Thompson, and B. T. Smith

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

1.2

An Interdisciplinary Approach to Understanding Public Safety Challenges from Nocturnal Tornadoes

Kelsey N. Ellis, Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN; and L. R. Mason

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

1.3

Explicit Forecasts of Low-Level Rotation with Convection-Allowing Models Using 1-Km Horizontal Grid Spacing

Ryan A. Sobash, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. S. Schwartz, G. S. Romine, and M. L. Weisman

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

1.4

The Dodge City Tornadoes on 24 May 2016: Damage Survey, Photogrammetric Analysis Combine with Mobile Polarimetric Radar Data

Roger, M. Wakimoto, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and Z. B. Weinhoff, H. B. Bluestein, and D. W. Reif

Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM

1.5

The Role of the Streamwise Vorticity Current in Tornado Genesis and Maintenance

Leigh Orf, Univ. of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI; and A. Dixon and K. T. Halbert

10:15 AM

Discussion

Coffee Break

Location: Pinnacle Lobby (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Session 2

Novel Observations and Their Use in Models

Location: Pinnacle room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Kelly Lombardo, Univ. of Connecticut

11:00 AM

2.1

Thermodynamic Observations Above the Ground in Convective Storms from Balloonborne Probes Acting as Pseudo-Lagrangian Drifters

Yvette Richardson, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and P. Markowski, S. J. Richardson, and A. Petersson

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

2.2

Development of UAV-Deployed Air-Launched Drifters (ALD) for Aboveground Thermodynamic Measurements in Supercells

Sara J Swenson, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and B. Argrow, E. W. Frew, S. Borenstein, J. M. Keeler, and A. Houston

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (28.6 MB)

11:45 AM

2.3

Principles and Operational Applications of Geostationary Lightning Mapper Data for Severe Local Storms

K. M. Calhoun, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and E. C. Bruning and C. J. Schultz

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

2.4

Using Vertically Pointing Wind Profiling Lidars to Acquire Low-Level Thunderstorm Outflow Wind Characteristics

W. Scott Gunter, Columbus State Univ., Columbus, GA

Recorded Presentation

12:15 PM

2.5

Impact of sUAS Data on CAM Supercell Forecasts

Jason M. Keeler, Central Michigan Univ., Mount Pleasant, MI; and A. L. Houston and A. B. Mills

Recorded Presentation

Lunch Break

Session 3A

Prediction

Location: Pinnacle C (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Nusrat Yussouf, Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL

2:00 PM

3A.1

The 2018 NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment

Adam Clark, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak, B. T. Gallo, S. J. Weiss, L. J. Wicker, S. R. Dembek, M. Xue, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, K. H. Knopfmeier, G. J. Creager, K. Brewster, Y. Jung, B. Roberts, G. Romine, C. Alexander, X. Wang, A. Johnson, L. Harris, C. Zhang, M. J. Morin, S. J. Lin, R. M. Hepper, T. A. Supinie, and A. R. Dean

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

3A.2

Evidence of Progress: Precipitation Forecasts from the Warn-on-Forecast Ensemble System

John R. Lawson, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain, N. Yussouf, D. C. Dowell, D. M. Wheatley, K. H. Knopfmeier, and T. A. Jones

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

3A.3

Inter-model Storm-scale Comparisons from the 2017 Spring Forecasting Experiment

Corey K. Potvin, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. Carley, A. J. Clark, L. J. Wicker, P. S. Skinner, A. E. Reinhart, B. T. Gallo, and J. S. Kain

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

3A.4

Ensemble Sensitivity-Based Subsetting Overview and Evaluation Activities at the 2018 NOAA HWT

Brian C. Ancell, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and A. A. Coleman, A. J. Hill, and C. C. Weiss

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

3A.5

Examining the Use of the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for Ensembles for the Prediction of Severe Storms Through Short-Term Forecast Outlooks During the 2018 Spring Forecasting Experiment

Jessica J. Choate, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and A. Clark, B. T. Gallo, E. Grimes, P. L. Heinselman, P. Skinner, and K. A. Wilson

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

3A.6

Further Development of the Static Background Error Covariance for Direct Assimilation of Radar Reflectivity Within GSI Based Hybrid EnVar System to Improve Convection-allowing Hazardous Weather Forecast: Experiments in HRRR and WoF Contexts

X. Wang, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and Y. Wang

Recorded Presentation

Session 3B

Supercells

Location: Pinnacle AB (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Michael M. French, NOAA/NSSL

2:00 PM

3B.1

An Update on VORTEX-SE Activities at Texas Tech Univ.

Christopher C. Weiss, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and D. C. Dowell, A. J. Hill, J. McDonald, E. C. Bruning, and J. Dahl

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

3B.2

An Unusual Line of Tornadic Supercells

Donald W. Burgess, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. E. Reinhart

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

3B.3

The Dynamical Coupling of Convective Updrafts, Downdrafts, and Cold Pools in Simulated Supercell Thunderstorms

Geoffrey Marion, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, IL; and R. J. Trapp

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

3B.4

Impact of Surface Drag on Surface Kinematic and Thermodynamic Boundaries in Simulated Supercell Thunderstorms

Daniel T. Dawson II, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and B. Roberts and M. Xue

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

3B.5

The Relationship Between RFD Thermodynamic Deficit and RFGF Vertical Structure in High-Resolution Simulated Supercells

Abby L. Hutson, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and C. C. Weiss, D. C. Dowell, and G. H. Bryan

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

3B.6

Comparing Observations and Simulations of the Streamwise Vorticity Current in a Tornadic Supercell Storm

Alex Schueth, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and C. C. Weiss

Recorded Presentation

Poster Session 1A

Severe Storm Databases and Reanalyses

Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

1

The International Fujita Scale: A Globally Applicable Scale for Tornado and Wind Damage Classification

Pieter Groenemeijer, European Severe Storms Laboratory, Wessling, Germany; and A. M. Holzer

2

Biases in the Severe Weather Report Database across Vermont and Northern New York

Andrea M. LaRocca, NWS, Burlington, VT; and P. C. Banacos

3

Comparison between European and U.S. Severe Convective Weather Environments in Multiple Reanalyses

Anja T. Rädler, Ludwig- aximilians Univ., Munich, Germany; Munich Re, Munich, Germany; and T. Pucik, P. Groenemeijer, and C. M. Castellano

4

Using the MYRORSS Database to Create a Rotating Storms Climatology

Kendell LaRoche, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. S. Williams, K. L. Ortega, A. E. Reinhart, M. C. Mahalik, B. R. Smith, and T. M. Smith

Handout (26.6 MB)

5

Global Convective Environments: Multiple Reanalysis Climatology

John T. Allen, Central Michigan Univ., Mount Pleasant, MI

6

NARRCON: A High-Resolution Reanalysis for the Severe Storms Community

Victor A. Gensini, Northern Illinois Univ., DeKalb, IL

Poster Session 1B

Severe Storm Hazards: Hail

Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

7

Albany Forecast Area Significant Hail Climatology and Case Studies

Thomas A. Wasula, NOAA/NWS, Albany, NY; and B. J. Frugis and D. B. Thompson

Handout (4.3 MB)

8

Simulation of a Hail Event Set for Central Europe

Christopher M. Castellano, European Severe Storms Laboratory, Wessling, Germany; and P. Groenemeijer, A. T. Raedler, E. Faust, and T. Pucik

9

WSR-88D Observations of an Extreme Hail Event Impacting Western South Dakota on 20 June 2015

Arthur Witt, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. C. Snyder

Manuscript (13.0 MB)

Handout (12.6 MB)

10

Hail Detection Using 1-Minute GOES-14 and GOES-16 Satellite Imagery and Ground-Based Dual Polarization Radar

E. M. Murillo, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

11

Insights Into Identifying and Nowcasting Deep Hail Accumulations

Robinson Wallace, Univ. of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO; and K. Friedrich, B. Meier, W. Deierling, E. A. Kalina, and P. T. Schlatter

12

Comparison of Impact Disdrometer and Surface Hailstone Measurements with Dual-Polarization Doppler Radar-Based Hail Swaths from the 29 May 2018 Erick, Oklahoma Hailstorm

Jacob Sorber, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and M. R. Kumjian, I. M. Giammanco, and T. M. Brown-Giammanco

13

Dual-Polarization Radar and Environmental Characteristics of Storms Producing Large Accumulations of Small Hail

Matthew R. Kumjian, The Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and Z. J. Lebo and A. Ward

14

Using Machine Learning with Polarimetric Radar Data to Predict Hail Size

15

Updraft Width in Severe Thunderstorms – Observations of Significant-Hail Producing Thunderstorms

Jenni Rauhala, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland

16

Observing Hail Swaths Using the GOES-16 Advanced Baseline Imager

Dillon V. Blount, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and P. N. Schumacher and K. Gallo

Poster Session 1C

Severe Storm Hazards: Heavy Rain and Flash Flooding

Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

17

CAPS Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast Experiment in Supporting 2018 NOAA HWT SFE and HMT FFaIR

Fanyou Kong, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, Y. Jung, K. A. Brewster, N. Snook, C. Zhang, T. A. Supinie, K. W. Thomas, A. J. Clark, and I. L. Jirak

18

Convective Mode and Mesoscale Heavy Rainfall Forecast Challenges: Gulf Coast and Florida during 17–20 May 2016

Lance F. Bosart, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and B. C. Wallace

19

Mechanisms for a record-breaking rainfall in the coastal metropolitan city of Guangzhou, China: observation analysis and nested very-large-eddy simulation with the WRF Model

Yongjie Huang, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, Y. Liu, H. Li, and J. Knievel

Handout (24.8 MB)

20

Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts for Flash Flooding in the 2018 NOAA/NSSL Hydrometeorology Testbed

Katie A. Wilson, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. M. Martinaitis, N. Yussouf, P. L. Heinselman, and J. J. Gourley

Poster Session 1D

Severe Storm Hazards: Wind

Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

21

Using Specific Differential Phase to Predict Significant Severe Thunderstorm Wind Damage across the Northeastern United States

Brian J. Frugis, NOAA/NWS, Albany, NY

22

Large-amplitude Gravity Waves as an Unclassified Type of Storm

Anton Seimon, Appalachian State Univ., Boone, NC; and L. Bosart and J. H. Ruppert Jr.

23

Basis for a Stochastic Convective Storm Model Using Measured Near-Surface Wind Gust and Reanalysis Data

Franklin T. Lombardo, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and S. Hu and A. S. Zickar

24

Evaluating Outflow Boundary Characteristics in Areas of Complex Terrain

Nicholas T. Luchetti, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and K. Friedrich, J. K. Lundquist, and C. Rodell

25

A Multiscale Analysis of the 15 May 2018 Significant Severe Weather Event in the Northeastern United States

Daniel B. Thompson, NWS, Albany, NY; and J. E. Cebulko

Handout (4.5 MB)

26

Prediction of Microbursts in the Northeastern U.S.

Stephen Jessup, SUNY, Brockport, NY; and A. Burke

27

Wind Gusts Associated with Small-Scale Vortices in the Core of Typhoon GONI (2015)

Wataru Mashiko, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan

28

How a Sea Breeze Front can Generate Supercells in Marginal Environments

Harald Richter, BoM, Melbourne, Australia; and L. Bosart and J. S. Soderholm

29

Advances in Development of the ASCE/SEI/AMS Standard for Wind Speed Estimation in Tornadoes and Other Windstorms

J. G. LaDue, NOAA/NWS/Office of Chief Learning Officer/Warning Decision Training Division, Norman, OK; and J. Wurman, M. Levitan, F. T. Lombardo, C. D. Karstens, J. Robinson, and W. Coulbourne

30

Turbulence Characteristics of Severe Straight-line Winds in a Rear-Flank Downdraft and Bow Echo Observed by the Texas Tech Univ. Ka-Band Mobile Doppler Radars

Patrick S. Skinner, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and W. S. Gunter, E. C. Bruning, C. C. Weiss, J. L. Schroeder, and S. M. Berkseth

Poster Session 1E

Severe Storms: Climatologies, Climatological Variability, and Climate Change

Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

31

Increasingly Powerful Tornadoes

James B. Elsner, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and T. Fricker

32

Analyzing the Role of Low-Level Forcing in Significant Severe Weather Outbreaks in the Eastern U.S.

Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS, Albany, NY; and J. E. Cebulko

Manuscript (969.1 kB)

Handout (4.0 MB)

33

The Anomalously Large 2018 Hail Season of Eastern Colorado: A Local Perspective on a National Trend

Samuel J. Childs, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

Handout (2.7 MB)

34

Understanding the Geographic Controls of Severe Local Storm Environments in the United States: Role of the Gulf of Mexico

Kevin A. Reed, Stony Brook Univ., SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and D. R. Chavas

35

Intercomparison of Environmental Proxies for Severe Local Storms in Capturing the Spatial Distribution of Tornadoes and Its Variability on Climate Time Scales over North America.

Shawn William Simmons, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and D. R. Chavas and K. Hoogewind

36

Trends in Environments Conducive for Large Hail

Brian H. Tang, SUNY, Albany, NY

37

Composite Synoptic Charts and Quantiles of Convective Parameters Associated with Distinct Modes of Severe Convective Weather in Southern Brazil

Murilo Machado Lopes, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, Brazil; and E. L. Nascimento

38

Severe Thunderstorm Life Cycles in New York State

Matthew Wunsch, Stony Brook Univ., Stony Brook, NY; and M. M. French

39

A Climatology of Quasi-linear Convective Systems in the U.S.

Walker S. Ashley, Northern Illinois Univ., DeKalb, IL; and A. M. Haberlie and J. Strohm

Handout (6.9 MB)

40

Potential Future Changes of the Severe Weather Environment in Western Canada

Jennifer Bruneau, Univ. of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada; and J. Hanesiak, W. Burrows, and J. C. Brimelow

41

Winter Significant Tornado Variability in Relation to ENSO and the Gulf of Mexico

Maria J. Molina, Central Michigan Univ., Mt. Pleasant, MI; and J. T. Allen and V. A. Gensini

Handout (6.7 MB)

42

Convective Storm Life Cycle and Environments Near the Sierras De Córdoba, Argentina

Jake Mulholland, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and S. W. Nesbitt, R. J. Trapp, K. L. Rasmussen, and P. Salio

43

Impacts of Time of Day and Year on Severe Warning Performance over the United States Great Plains

Poster Session 1F

Tornado Damage and Surface Interactions

Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

44

How Land Use Alters the Tornado Disaster Landscape

Stephen M. Strader, Villanova Univ., Villanova, PA; and W. S. Ashley, T. J. Pingel, and A. Krmenec

45

A Simple Boundary Layer Parameterization of Heterogeneous Land Surfaces Applied to Convective Updraft Prediction

Eric Talbert, Oklahoma City, OK

46

The Effects of Varying Surface Roughness, Translational Velocity and Swirl Ratio on an Idealized Tornado

Martin A. Satrio, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. J. Bodine, A. E. Reinhart, and T. Maruyama

Manuscript (4.0 MB)

47

Quantification of Wind Speeds in the 19 March 2018 Jacksonville, AL Tornado Through Analyses of Very High-Resolution Tree Damage in a Residential Neighborhood

Chris J. Peterson, Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA; and C. M. Godfrey and F. T. Lombardo

48

Low-Level Tornado Wind Structure

Karen Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and J. Wurman

49

Investigation of the Impact of Terrain and Buildings on Tornado Dynamics Using High-Resolution Simulations

David J. Bodine, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. E. Reinhart, M. A. Satrio, T. Maruyama, and F. T. Lombardo

Handout (32.8 MB)

Poster Session 1G

Tornado Environments and Climatologies

Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

50

Relationship of Low-Level Instability and Tornado Damage Rating Based on Observed Soundings

Richard M. Mosier, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK; and N. L. Hampshire, T. M. Ryan, and D. Cavanaugh

51

Environments of Supercellular Satellite Tornadoes

Roger Edwards, SPC, Norman, OK; and A. R. Dean

Manuscript (628.4 kB)

52

Tornadoes in Hurricane Harvey: Documentation and Environmental Analysis

Roger Edwards, SPC, Norman, OK; and S. Overpeck, G. R. Woodall, and C. J. Nowotarski

Manuscript (2.2 MB)

53

Radar Climatology and Analysis of Near-Storm Environment of Tornadic Vortices in the Baltimore/Washington Region of the Mid-Atlantic United States

James E. Lee, NWS, Sterling, VA; and B. Rinaldi

54

The Dependence of Tornado Activity on Terrain: Applying Bayes Law to the Historical Record in Arkansas

ZhanXiang Hua, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and D. R. Chavas

55

U.S. Violent Tornadoes Relative to the Position of the 850 mb Jet

Chris Broyles, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and C. K. Potvin, C. C. Crosbie, R. M. Rabin, and P. S. Skinner

Manuscript (1.3 MB)

Handout (1.7 MB)

56

A Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Framework for Correcting Reporting Bias in the U.S. Tornado Database

Corey K. Potvin, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and C. Broyles, P. S. Skinner, and H. E. Brooks

Handout (1.2 MB)

57

Location and Frequency of Surface Lows and Lower-Tropospheric Jets for U.S. Violent Tornadoes

Chris Broyles, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and C. K. Potvin, C. C. Crosbie, R. M. Rabin, and P. S. Skinner

Manuscript (1.5 MB)

Handout (5.1 MB)

58

Numerical Investigation on the Environment of Tornado Occurrences Associated with Typhoon 201318 (MAN-YI)

Kenta Sueki, RIKEN Center for Computational Science, Kobe, Japan

59

The Temporal Evolution of Tornadic and Non-Tornadic VORTEX2 Near-Storm Environments

Austin D Mansfield, UNC, Charlotte, NC; and C. E. Davenport

Handout (17.8 MB)

60

The Northern Tornadoes Project – Overview and Initial Results

David Sills, Environment and Climate Change, Toronto, ON, Canada; and G. A. Kopp, E. Hong, J. Kennell, A. Jaffe, and L. Elliott

Manuscript (1.4 MB)

Handout (1.7 MB)

61

"Volatility of Tornadogenesis" in VORTEX2 Far-field Environments

Matthew D. Flournoy, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and E. N. Rasmussen and M. C. Coniglio

62

Quantifying the Relationship between Southern-End Supercells and Tornado Production

Susan Beveridge, Ohio Univ., Bellville, OH; and J. B. Houser and S. R. Marzola

Handout (3.9 MB)

63

Tornado Events, Fatalities, Injuries, and Property Damage Related to NEXRAD Radar Coverage in the Era of Polygon Warnings.

Daniel Melendez, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and G. M. Schoor and J. Sokich

Handout (1.3 MB)

64

A Noteworthy Year for Supercells and Tornadoes in the Western United States in 2018

Jared L. Guyer, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK

Manuscript (1.2 MB)

Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Icebreaker Reception

Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Registration

Location: Beatrice room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Session 4

Bridging the Gap: Mesoscale Convective Systems

Location: Pinnacle room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Casey E. Davenport, Univ. of North Carolina at Charlotte

9:00 AM

4.1

Progress in Forecasting Derechoes with the NCAR-WRF High-Resolution Ensemble

Morris Weisman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. S. Schwartz and K. W. Manning

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

4.2

Polarimetric Thermodynamic Retrievals in Convective and Stratiform Regions: Results from Spectral Bin Models

Jacob Carlin, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. Ryzhkov

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

4.3

An Analysis of Observed Cold Pools in VORTEX-SE Supercells and Quasi-Linear Convective Systems

Jessica McDonald, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and C. C. Weiss

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

4.4

Coastal Mid-Atlantic Squall Line Behavior

Kelly Lombardo, Univ. of Connecticut, Groton, CT; and R. M. Hastings

Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM

4.5

External vs. Self-Organization of Nocturnal MCSs from PECAN

Matthew D. Parker, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC

Recorded Presentation

10:15 AM

Discussion

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Location: Pinnacle Lobby (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Session 5

The Future of Modeling and Prediction

Location: Pinnacle room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Logan C. Dawson, I.M. Systems Group, Inc. and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC

11:00 AM

5.1

Progress in High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Deterministic and Ensemble Development for Convective Hazard Forecasts

Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and D. C. Dowell, T. Alcott, T. Ladwig, M. Hu, J. Duda, G. Ge, T. G. Smirnova, J. B. Olson, J. Kenyon, J. Beck, I. Jankov, E. P. James, S. S. Weygandt, S. Benjamin, J. M. Brown, G. Grell, J. A. Hamilton, M. B. Smith, and D. D. Turner

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

5.2

Convection-Allowing Modeling and Analysis Efforts at EMC

J. R. Carley, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and E. Rogers, T. Black, W. S. Wu, B. T. Blake, E. Aligo, M. E. Pyle, G. Zhao, M. Pondeca, R. Yang, D. E. Lippi, J. Kain, J. C. Derber, and C. R. Alexander

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

5.3

Evaluating the Depiction of Severe Convection in FV3

Burkely T. Gallo, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and A. J. Clark, I. L. Jirak, C. P. Kalb, B. Roberts, T. Jensen, S. R. Dembek, Y. Wang, M. Xue, F. Kong, C. Zhang, T. A. Supinie, L. M. Harris, and S. J. Lin

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

5.4

Evaluating the Impact of Stochastic Physics in a Convection-Allowing Ensemble for Severe Weather Forecasting

Robert M. Hepper, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak, A. J. Clark, B. T. Gallo, J. K. Wolff, I. Jankov, K. W. Thomas, F. Kong, and M. Xue

Recorded Presentation

12:15 PM

5.5

An Evaluation of Paired Regional/Convection-Allowing Model-Forecast Vertical Profiles in Warm-Season, Thunderstorm-Supporting Environments

Clark Evans, Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and S. J. Weiss, I. L. Jirak, A. R. Dean, and D. Nevius

Recorded Presentation

Lunch Break

Session 6A

Environmental and Terrain Impacts

Location: Pinnacle C (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado

2:00 PM

6A.1

A Lagrangian Technique for Moisture Attribution of Winter and Spring Severe Local Storms over the Contiguous United States

Maria J. Molina, Central Michigan Univ., Mt. Pleasant, MI; and J. T. Allen

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

6A.2

Understanding the Topographic Controls of Severe Local Storm Environments in the United States

Daniel R. Chavas, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and K. A. Reed and F. Li

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

6A.3

Evaluating the Effects of Terrain-Channeled, Low-Level Flow on Convective Organization

William Flamholtz, SUNY, Albany, NY; and B. H. Tang and L. F. Bosart

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

6A.4

Investigating the Effects of Topography on the Generation of Low-Level Vorticity in Simulated Supercells

Branden Katona, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and P. Markowski

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

6A.5

Tornado Damage Estimation of Cities and Buildings Using Meteorological Model/LES Hybrid Method

Masaharu Kawaguchi, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Yokohama, Japan; and T. Tamura, H. Kawai, and W. Mashiko

3:15 PM

6A.6

Correlations between Topography and Land Cover with Tornado Intensity Using Rapid-Scan Mobile Radar Observations in a Geographic Information System Framework

Jana B. Houser, Ohio Univ., Athens, OH; and K. M. Butler, N. McGinnis, H. B. Bluestein, and J. C. Snyder

Recorded Presentation

Session 6B

Mesoscale Convective Systems

Location: Pinnacle AB (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Corey K. Potvin, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL

2:00 PM

6B.1

Shear Available Potential Energy (SHAPE): A Quantitative Measure of the Effect of Wind Shear on Convective Updraft Potential

Timothy Coleman, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL

2:15 PM

6B.2

An Investigation of the Conditional Practical Predictability of the 31 May 2013 Heavy-Rain-Producing Mesoscale Convective System

Aidan R. Kuroski, Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and C. Evans

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

6B.3

Low-Frequency Gravity Wave Generation during Mesoscale Convective System Lifecycles within Varying Environments

Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER, Omaha, NE; and R. S. Schumacher

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

6B.4

An Analysis of the 1 October 2017 Derecho in Southern Brazil

Bruno Z. Ribeiro, INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil; and L. F. Bosart and M. E. Seluchi

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

6B.5

Upscale Convective Growth of an Orogenic Supercell into a Mesoscale Convective System in Argentina, South America

Jake Mulholland, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and S. W. Nesbitt and R. J. Trapp

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

6B.6

Investigating the Transition from Elevated Multicellular Convection to Surface-Based Supercells as Observed in the Indiana and Ohio Tornado Outbreak of 24 August 2016 using a WRF Model Simulation and Perturbation Pressure Decomposition

Kevin T. Gray, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and J. W. Frame

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (15.3 MB)

Poster Session 2A

Advanced Data Assimilation and Prediction Techniques and Systems

Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

65

Convective-Scale Ensemble Subsetting with Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis

Austin A. Coleman, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and B. C. Ancell

66

Ensemble-based Singular Value Decomposition Analysis for a Local Rainfall Event Predicted by Water Vapor Assimilation

Sho Yokota, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and H. Seko, N. Nagumo, H. Yamauchi, R. Kudo, T. Sakai, Y. Shoji, T. Kawabata, Y. Ikuta, and H. Niino

67

Test of a Hybrid Dual-Resolution Ensemble Variational Analysis and Forecast System during the HWT Spring Experiments in 2018

Yunheng Wang, CIMMS, Norman, OK; and J. Gao, P. Skinner, K. H. Knopfmeier, T. A. Jones, G. J. Creager, P. L. Heinselman, and L. J. Wicker

68

Convection-Allowing Applications of FV3 at EMC

Benjamin T. Blake, I.M. Systems Group, Inc. and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and T. Black, E. Rogers, E. Aligo, J. Abeles, J. R. Carley, and J. S. Kain

69

The Future of the HRRR: Data Assimilation Advances for Version 4

Jeffrey D. Duda, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and D. Dowell, C. R. Alexander, Y. Wang, and X. Wang

70

Development of a GSI-Based EnKF System with Polarimetric Radar Data Assimilation Capabilities for Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasts

Bryan J. Putnam, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and Y. Jung, N. Yussouf, D. R. Stratman, T. A. Supinie, and M. Xue

71

Improvement of NOAA's Warn on Forecast Capabilities through Phased Array Radar Data Assimilation with the 4-Dimensional Ensemble Kalman Filter

Timothy A. Supinie, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and Y. Jung, N. Yussouf, and M. Xue

72

Several Challenges of Predicting Utility Outages: A Description of Two "Tail End" Events

Nick P. Bassill, Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY; and R. G. Fovell

73

Exploring the Use of Ensembles for Real Time Diagnosis of the Severe Storm Environment

Michael C. Coniglio, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. H. Knopfmeier and B. Roberts

Handout (14.6 MB)

74

Exploring the Utility of Assimilating Observations from a Mesoscale Network of StickNet Platforms During VORTEX-SE with the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble

Aaron J. Hill, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and C. C. Weiss and D. C. Dowell

75

Development of a Hybrid EnVar and Ensemble Kalman Filter Analysis and Forecast System for Convective Scale NWP

Jidong Gao, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and Y. Yang, Y. Wang, K. H. Knopfmeier, S. Pan, P. Skinner, Q. Xu, and L. J. Wicker

76

Evaluating Potential Future Configurations of the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast System

Burkely T. Gallo, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and B. Roberts, I. L. Jirak, A. J. Clark, C. P. Kalb, and T. Jensen

Handout (3.2 MB)

Poster Session 2B

Remote Sensing and In Situ Observations of Severe Storms

Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

77A

High-Temporal Resolution X-Band Polarimetric Radar Analysis of the 20 May 2013 Moore, Oklahoma Supercell during Tornadogenesis and Tornado Intensification

Clarice N. Dyson, Advanced Radar Research Center, Norman, OK; and D. J. Bodine and R. D. Palmer

77

An Object-Based Tornado Debris Signature Detection Algorithm

Jeffrey C. Snyder, NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. Krause and A. Witt

78

GOES-R: A Paradigm Shift in Severe Weather Forecasting and Research

K. W. Mozer, NOAA/NESDIS/OSPO, Greenbelt, MD; and M. Seybold, D. T. Lindsey, E. M. Kline, W. M. MacKenzie Jr., and C. M. Gravelle

79

Severe Convective Storm and Tornado Data Collected by RaXPol During the 2017 and 2018 Spring Seasons

Howard B. Bluestein, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and Z. B. Wienhoff, D. W. Reif, and B. L. Cheong

80

Severe Weather Radar Signature Characteristics and the Vertical Distribution of Shear and Buoyancy

81

Virtual Near-Radar Doppler Velocity Signatures of Low-Level Supercell Horizontal and Vertical Rotations: Simulation Study

Vincent T. Wood, NOAA, Norman, OK; and R. Davies-Jones and C. K. Potvin

Manuscript (1.9 MB)

Handout (2.2 MB)

82

Comparison of Tornadic and Severe Non-Tornadic Storms Using Probability Matched Means of Radar Observations

T. Sandmael, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and C. R. Homeyer

83

The “Broken-S” Radar Signature and its Use as a Nowcasting Indicator for Tornadogenesis in Quasi-Linear Convective Systems

84

The Streamwise Vorticity Current: Its Origin and Strategies For Remote Detection

Austin W. Dixon, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and L. Orf and K. T. Halbert

85

Tornado and Hail Infrasound Observations during Severe Storms

Christopher E. Petrin, Oklahoma State Univ., Stillwater, OK; and M. S. Van Den Broeke and B. R. Elbing

86

Incorporating Dual-Polarization Signatures into the Tornado Warning Process for Supercells: Z_DR/K_DP Separation and Size Sorting Signals

M. L. Jurewicz Sr., NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and C. M. Gitro, M. R. Kumjian, and M. M. French

87

Verification of Near Real-time Estimates of Tornado Damage Probability

Daniel Betten, CoreLogic, Norman, OK

88

Observed Bulk Hook Echo Drop-Size Distribution Evolution in Supercell Tornadogenesis

Kristofer S. Tuftedal, Stony Brook Univ., Stony Brook, NY; and M. M. French, D. M. Kingfield, and J. C. Snyder

89

Cataloging Rapid Scan Observations of ZDR Columns in Supercells

Derrek Dalman, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and R. Tanamachi, P. E. Saunders, B. L. Cheong, D. J. Bodine, H. B. Bluestein, and Z. B. Weinhoff

Manuscript (354.6 kB)

90

Using Overshooting Top Area to Discriminate Large, Intense Tornadoes

Geoffrey Marion, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, IL; and R. J. Trapp and S. W. Nesbitt

91

Single-Doppler Velocity Retrieval of the Wind Field in a Tornadic Supercell Using Data From a Mobile, Phased-Array, Doppler Radar

Yu-Chieng Liou, National Central Univ., Taoyuan, Taiwan; and H. B. Bluestein, M. M. French, and Z. B. Wienhoff

92

How Well do Z_DRArc Metrics Indicate Potential for Strong Low-Level Rotation in Supercells?

Matthew B. Wilson, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and M. S. Van Den Broeke

93

Analysis of Radar-Estimated Rotation and Divergence Associated with Kinematic Features Observed During RiVorS

Matthew C. Mahalik, CIMMS, Norman, OK; and E. N. Rasmussen, S. S. Murdzek, and S. Waugh

94

Analysis of a QLCS Vortex and Multiple Vortices Within a Mesocyclone Using S-Band and Close-Range X-Band Doppler Radar

Dylan W. Reif, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. B. Bluestein and Z. B. Wienhoff

95

Single-Doppler Evidence of Supercell Vorticity Rivers

Erik Rasmussen, Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, Norman, OK; and M. D. Flournoy, S. S. Murdzek, M. C. Mahalik, Z. B. Weinhoff, and H. Bluestein

96

Mobile Mesonet Observations Near Vorticity Rivers in Supercells

Shawn S. Murdzek, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and E. Rasmussen and M. D. Flournoy

97

Comprehensive Analysis and Regional and Seasonal Differences of Tornado Debris Signatures Associated with Significant Tornadoes from 2010-2017

Steven E. Nelson, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Peachtree City, GA; and A. K. Baker and S. W. Emmerson

Poster Session 2C

Severe Storm Modeling and Observations for Education

Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

98

A NEw, Polarimetric, X-band Teaching and Research Radar (XTRRA) at Purdue Univ.

Robin Tanamachi, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and D. T. Dawson II, E. Agee, and M. Baldwin

99

Integration of Research-Grade Meteorological Instrumentation into a Severe Storms Field Work Course at Purdue Univ.

Robin Tanamachi, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and D. T. Dawson II and L. Carleton Parker

Poster Session 2D

Severe Storms in Heterogeneous Environments

Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

100

The Role of Direct Insolation and Near-Surface Moisture Advection in the Recovery of CAPE on 31 March 2016 During VORTEX-Southeast

Allison T. LaFleur, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and R. Tanamachi, D. T. Dawson II, S. Frasier, J. Waldinger, and D. D. Turner

101

Spatial Gradients in Convective Parameters and Their Influence on Storm Dynamics and Structure

Justine A. Sulia, Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY; and M. R. Kumjian and Z. J. Lebo

102

High-Shear Low-CAPE Supercell Simulations

Andrew Wade, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and M. D. Parker

Handout (13.5 MB)

103

Examining Terrain Effects on the 31 May 1998 Mechanicville, New York Supercell and Tornado

Luke Justin LeBel, SUNY, Albany, NY; and B. H. Tang and R. A. Lazear

104

Simulated Changes in Storm Morphology Associated with a Sea-Breeze Airmass

Joshua Hartigan, Univ. of Technology Sydney, Ultimo, Australia; and R. A. Warren, J. S. Soderholm, and H. Richter

105

The Impact of Terrain on Supercells Using Idealized Numerical Simulations

Anthony E. Reinhart, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. J. Bodine and F. T. Lombardo

106

Preliminary Observations of Changes in Supercell RFD Buoyancy across Significant Topography in Northeastern Alabama during VORTEX-SE

Anthony W. Lyza, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and K. R. Knupp

107

Insights Gained into the Role of Topography in Modifying the Near-Storm Environments of Tornadic Storms through VORTEX-SE Observations and Numerical Simulations

Anthony W. Lyza, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and X. Li, K. R. Knupp, and J. R. Mecikalski

108

Impact of Terrain on Supercells According to Idealized Simulations with Actual Terrain

George H. Bryan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Romine, S. B. Trier, and D. Ahijevych

Handout (11.3 MB)

109

Impact of Orography on Updraft Rotation in Simulated Supercells

Johannes Dahl, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and C. C. Weiss, E. C. Bruning, D. Dowell, and C. R. Alexander

110

Revisiting the Influence of Topography on Local Convective Environments Using High-Resolution Model Output

Branden Katona, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and P. Markowski

111

Factor Separation Analysis of Urban Impacts on a Simulated Supercell

Poster Session 2E

Severe Storms: Risk, Vulnerability, and Communication; FACETs

Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

112

Three Years of Hazard Services – Probabilistic Hazard Information (HS-PHI) Experiments at the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed

Gregory J. Stumpf, CIRA/Colorado State University and NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory, Norman, OK; and T. L. Hansen, A. V. Bates, C. Golden, Y. Guo, J. J. James, J. G. LaDue, C. Ling, K. L. Manross, and T. C. Meyer

Handout (4.0 MB)

113

Developing and Testing Watch-Scale Forecast Products in the FACETs Paradigm

Makenzie Krocak, Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, Norman, OK; and H. E. Brooks

114

R2O Efforts in Support of FACETs: Findings from the Initial Phase and a Look Ahead

Alan Gerard, NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK

115

Investigation of the Local Torrential Rains in Ordos on July 7-10,2016

Xuefeng MENG, Inner Mongolian Meteorological Observatory, Hohhot, China

116

Using Network and Near Analyses to Examine Mobile Home Resident Evacuation Potential and Emergency Medical Service Response during Tornado Events in the Southeast U.S.

Stephen M. Strader, Villanova Univ., Villanova, PA; and E. Wagner and C. Sherrod

117

Design and Integration of Probabilities for Hazard Information in Hazard Services to Operationalize FACETs Concepts

Daniel Nietfeld, NOAA/OAR/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and K. L. Manross, T. L. Hansen, D. M. Kingfield, and H. Obermeier

Science and Communication Challenges within WoF and FACETs-driven NWS Severe Weather Service Evolution

118

The Use of Hazard Services Recommenders for Convective Weather Products: Facilitating Severe Weather Research to Operations

Daniel Nietfeld, NOAA/OAR/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and K. L. Manross, D. M. Kingfield, N. Hardin, T. L. Hansen, Y. Guo, C. Golden, and H. Obermeier

Poster Session 2F

Studies of Model Forecasts; Forecast Verification

Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

119

The Impact of Horizontal Grid Spacing on Convective Morphology and Propagation in Convection-Allowing Simulations of Severe Weather-Producing Convective Systems

William A. Gallus Jr., Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and J. E. Thielen and B. J. Squitieri

120

Determining Missed Events when Evaluating Probabilistic Convective Outlooks

Nathan M. Hitchens, Ball State Univ., Muncie, IN; and I. L. Jirak

Handout (1.3 MB)

121

Relating Convective Mode Information to SPC Tornado Outlook Verification

Andrew R. Dean, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and R. L. Thompson and B. T. Smith

Manuscript (980.2 kB)

Handout (903.9 kB)

122

Testing the Feature Alignment Technique (FAT) with Multiple Storms

Derek R. Stratman, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and C. K. Potvin and L. J. Wicker

123

Comparison of the HRRR Time-Lagged Ensemble to Formal CAM Ensembles during the 2018 HWT Spring Forecasting Experiment

Israel L. Jirak, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and B. Roberts, B. T. Gallo, and A. J. Clark

Handout (857.1 kB)

124

Information, Predictability, and Verification at the Thunderstorm Scale

John R. Lawson, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and C. K. Potvin and M. L. Flora

Handout (21.2 MB)

125

Severe Weather Forecast Skill across Different Environments in an Experimental Convection-Allowing Model

Ryan A. Sobash, NCAR, Boulder, CO

126

Lessons Learned from Three Years of Real-time Experiments with the NEWS-e

K. H. Knopfmeier, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and P. Skinner, D. M. Wheatley, T. A. Jones, N. Yussouf, J. J. Choate, D. C. Dowell, L. J. Wicker, P. L. Heinselman, A. E. Reinhart, T. T. Ladwig, C. R. Alexander, J. Hu, S. Mallick, K. A. Wilson, J. Gao, Y. Wang, and G. J. Creager

127

A Comparison of Multi-Dynamic Core vs Single-Dynamic Core Multi-Physics Ensemble Design for Convection-Allowing Forecasting Initialized By the Multiscale GSI-Based EnVar Data Assimilation System

Nicholas Antonio Gasperoni, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and X. Wang

Poster Session 2G

Tools for the Analysis and Prediction of Severe Storms

Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

128

The end-to-end convective hazard risk forecast process developed by the Australian Extreme Weather Desk for the South Australian 28 September 2016 tornado outbreak

Dean Sgarbossa, Extreme Weather Desk, National Forecast Services, Docklands, VIC, Australia

Manuscript (11.6 MB)

Handout (10.3 MB)

130

A Python-Based Tracking Algorithm for Coarse Temporal Resolution WRF-Simulated Supercells

Matthew Gropp, Univ. of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and C. E. Davenport

Handout (244.1 kB)

131

Web-based Visualization and Evaluation of Convection-Allowing Ensembles in the 2018 HWT Spring Forecasting Experiment

Brett Roberts, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, NOAA/OAR/NSSL and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak, A. J. Clark, S. J. Weiss, B. T. Gallo, R. M. Hepper, C. P. Kalb, and T. Jensen

Handout (1.5 MB)

Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Session 7

Convective Storm Structure and Dynamics

Location: Pinnacle room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Matt Kumjian, Penn State Univ.

7:30 PM

7.1

Beyond Parcel Theory: Accounting for Entrainment and Perturbation Pressure Effects on the Vertical Velocity Structure of Convective Storms

Hugh Morrison, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Peters

Recorded Presentation

8:00 PM

7.2

New Insights into Convective Updraft Kinematics and Microphysics Provided By a Network of High-Resolution, Rapid-Scanning X-Band Polarimetric Radars

Marcus van Lier-Walqui, Columbia Univ. and NASA GISS, New York, NY; and S. Lytle, M. R. Kumjian, Z. Feng, A. Mendendorp, and S. Collis

Recorded Presentation

8:15 PM

7.3

A Review of the Various Treatments of the Surface Momentum Flux in Severe Storms Simulations: Assumptions, Deficiencies, and Alternatives

Paul Markowski, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA

Recorded Presentation

8:30 PM

7.4

Contribution of Aerosol Effects to Convective Intensity and Extreme Precipitation

Jiwen Fan, PNNL, Richland, WA

Recorded Presentation

8:45 PM

7.5

Do Aerosols Matter in the Context of Deep Convective Clouds?

Zachary J. Lebo, Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY

Recorded Presentation

Registration

Location: Beatrice room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Session 8

Bridging the Gap: Supercells

Location: Pinnacle room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Ian M. Giammanco, Texas Tech University

9:00 AM

8.1

The Spectrum of US Right-Moving Supercell Environments Revealed Through Self-Organizing Maps

Robert A. Warren, Monash Univ., Melbourne, Australia; and R. Dalal, H. Richter, and R. L. Thompson

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

8.2

Environmental Evolution of Long-Lived Supercells

Casey E. Davenport, Univ. of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (890.6 kB)

9:30 AM

8.3

Intercomparison Between Polarimetric Radar, GOES-16 Satellite, and Lightning Indicators of Storm Severity in Supercells

Michael M. French, Stony Brook Univ., Stony Brook, NY; and J. C. Snyder, K. M. Bedka, and K. M. Calhoun

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

8.4

Kinematics, Thermodynamics, and Microphysics of the Tornadic 13-14 April 2018 Calhoun, La Supercell during VORTEX-SE

Conrad L. Ziegler, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and T. A. Murphy, K. L. Elmore, M. I. Biggerstaff, Z. Wang, E. N. Rasmussen, D. P. Jorgensen, and A. A. Alford

Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM

8.5

Sensitivity of Low-Level Organization of Simulated Supercells to Horizontal and Vertical Grid Resolutions: Idealized Studies using VORTEX-2 Composite Soundings

Louis J. Wicker, NSSL, Norman, OK; and A. J. Clark, B. E. Coffer, and M. D. Parker

Recorded Presentation

10:15 AM

Discussion

Coffee Break

Location: Pinnacle Lobby (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Session 9

Climate and Seasonal Variability

Location: Pinnacle room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Alexandra Anderson-Frey, The Pennsylvania State University

11:00 AM

9.1

Modeling the Implications of Climate Change on Lightning, Hail and Wind in Europe

Anja T. Rädler, European Severe Storms Laboratory, Wessling, Germany; Munich Re, Munich, Germany; Ludwig- aximilians Univ., Munich, Germany; and P. Groenemeijer, T. Pucik, C. M. Castellano, R. Sausen, and E. Faust

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

9.2

Toward Understanding Future Changes in the Tornado and Severe Hail Landscapes of Eastern Colorado

Samuel J. Childs, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

9.3

Climatology and Large-Scale Dynamics of High-Shear, Low-CAPE Derechos in Germany

Christoph Gatzen, Freie Universitaet Berlin, Berlin, Germany; and L. Schielicke

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

9.4

ENSO-driven Seasonal Variability in Hail, Tornadoes and Losses

John T. Allen, Central Michigan Univ., Mount Pleasant, MI; and M. J. Molina, V. A. Gensini, E. Faust, M. Steuer, and J. Eichner

Recorded Presentation

12:15 PM

9.5

Dynamically-Downscaled Estimates of Favorable Convective Environments and Storms Over the Upper Midwestern U.S.

Emily N. Tinney, Central Michigan Univ., Mt Pleasant, MI; and J. T. Allen and D. B. Kluver

Recorded Presentation

Student Networking Luncheon

Location: Green Mountain room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Lunch Break

Session 10A

Prediction 2

Location: Pinnacle C (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: John Allen, Central Michigan Univ.

2:00 PM

10A.1

An Examination of Dryline Convection Initiation Using Machine Learning

Trevor Mitchell, Univ. of Manchester, Manchester, U.K.; and D. M. Schultz

2:15 PM

10A.2

Lower-Tropospheric Conditions Influencing the Initiation of Severe Convection near Terrain Features in a Convection-Allowing Ensemble

Stanley B. Trier, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Romine, D. Ahijevych, and R. A. Sobash

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

10A.3

Assimilating Cloud Observations in the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRRE)

Therese T. Ladwig, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and D. C. Dowell, M. Hu, C. R. Alexander, S. S. Weygandt, and S. Benjamin

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

10A.4

Impact of Assimilating High-Density GOES-Derived Wind Vectors on Numerical Analyses of Severe Storm Environments

James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO; and J. Wurman, K. L. Rasmussen, and R. Rabin

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

10A.5

The NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for Ensembles at the 2018 NOAA Hydrometeorology Testbed Experiments

Nusrat Yussouf, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and T. A. Jones, P. Skinner, K. H. Knopfmeier, D. C. Dowell, J. Hu, X. Wang, D. D. Turner, K. A. Wilson, P. L. Heinselman, T. Alcott, G. J. Creager, J. J. Choate, L. J. Wicker, A. E. Reinhart, J. Zhang, S. M. Martinaitis, T. Ladwig, C. R. Alexander, and J. J. Gourley

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

10A.6

Showing Value in Classic ROC Performance...Diagrams

Harold E. Brooks, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. Correia Jr. and B. T. Gallo

Recorded Presentation

Session 10B

Tornadoes

Location: Pinnacle AB (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Jared L. Guyer, NOAA/NWS

2:00 PM

10B.1

Spatial Trends in United States Tornado Frequency

Victor A. Gensini, Northern Illinois Univ., DeKalb, IL; and H. E. Brooks

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

10B.2

Entraining CAPE for Better Assessment of Tornado Outbreak Potential in the Warm Sector of Extratropical Cyclones

Eigo Tochimoto, Univ. of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan; and K. Sueki and H. Niino

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

10B.3

Is There a "Tipping Point'' between Simulated Nontornadic and Tornadic Supercells in VORTEX2 Environments?

Brice E. Coffer, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and M. D. Parker

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

10B.4

Development of Verification Techniques for the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for Ensembles (NEWS-e)

Patrick S. Skinner, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. H. Knopfmeier, J. J. Choate, B. T. Gallo, J. R. Lawson, A. E. Reinhart, T. A. Jones, N. Yussouf, D. C. Dowell, K. A. Wilson, L. J. Wicker, and P. L. Heinselman

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

10B.5

High-Resolution Simulation of a Violent Tornado in the 27 April 2011 Outbreak Environment

Catherine A. Finley, Saint Louis Univ., St. Louis, MO; and L. Orf, B. D. Lee, and R. B. Wilhelmson

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

10B.6

An Investigation of the Relationship between Doppler Vortex Signatures and Polarimetric Debris Signatures in Damaging Tornadoes

Zachary B. Wienhoff, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. B. Bluestein, L. J. Wicker, D. J. Bodine, B. L. Cheong, D. W. Reif, and N. Dahl

Recorded Presentation

Conference Excursion: Ben & Jerry's Tour

Registration

Location: Beatrice room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Session 11

Bridging the Gap: Hail

Location: Pinnacle room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Zach Lebo, Penn State University

9:00 AM

11.1

An Overview of the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety's Hail Research Program

Tanya M. Brown-Giammanco, Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety, Richburg, SC; and I. M. Giammanco

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.4 MB)

9:15 AM

11.2

Observing Deep Hail Accumulations on the Colorado and Wyoming Front Range

Robinson Wallace, Univ. of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO; and K. Friedrich, B. Meier, W. Deierling, E. A. Kalina, P. T. Schlatter, and M. Serpas

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

11.3

Comparisons of WSR-88D Dual-Pol Hail Size Discrimination Algorithm Output with Physical Hail Measurements and In Situ Impact Disdrometer Data

Ian M. Giammanco, Univ. of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and T. M. Brown-Giammanco

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

11.4

Hailstone S-band Radar Signatures and Comparisons to Spheroids

Zhiyuan Jiang, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and M. R. Kumjian, R. S. Schrom, I. M. Giammanco, T. M. Brown-Giammanco, H. E. Estes, R. Maiden, and A. Heymsfield

Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM

11.5

Exploring the Influence of Instability and Vertical Wind Shear on Hail Size Using Hailstone Growth Trajectory Calculations

Matthew R. Kumjian, The Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA

Recorded Presentation

10:15 AM

Discussion

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Location: Pinnacle Lobby (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Session 12

Risk, Vulnerability, and Communication

Location: Pinnacle room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Kelsey N. Ellis, Univ. of Tennessee

11:00 AM

12.1

Risk, Information, and Vulnerability for Evolving Tornado Threats in the Southeast

Julie L. Demuth, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Vickery, H. Lazrus, J. Henderson, R. E. Morss, K. D. Ash, D. C. Smith, K. M. Anderson, and L. Palen

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

12.2

Uses of Frequently Updating Probabilistic Warn-on-Forecast Guidance

Pamela L. Heinselman, NSSL, Norman, OK; and T. Lindley, K. J. Sanders, A. E. Cohen, M. T. Eckert, A. Orrison, K. A. Wilson, P. S. Skinner, J. J. Choate, and K. H. Knopfmeier

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

12.3

Broadcast Meteorologist Decision Making in the 2018 Hazardous Weather Testbed Probabilistic Hazard Information Project

Holly Obermeier, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and K. L. Nemunaitis-Berry, K. E. Klockow-McClain, T. C. Meyer, A. Campbell, A. Gerard, and C. Kolakoski

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

12.4

Broadcast Meteorologist Use of Social Media in the 2018 Hazardous Weather Testbed Probabilistic Hazard Information Project

Caroline Kolakoski, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and K. Berry, H. Obermeier, A. Gerard, K. E. Klockow-McClain, A. Campbell, and T. C. Meyer

Recorded Presentation

12:15 PM

12.5

Visualization and Communication of Probabilistic Lightning Hazard Information for a Broad Spectrum of End Users

Tiffany C. Meyer, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. Berry, A. Campbell, K. M. Calhoun, C. Gregg, K. E. Klockow-McClain, H. Obermeier, and J. Wolfe

Recorded Presentation

Lunch Break

Session 13A

Hail

Location: Pinnacle C (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Anja T. Rädler, European Severe Storms Laboratory

2:00 PM

13A.1

A Climatological Study of Hail Occurrence using the MRMS MESH Product

Skylar S. Williams, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. L. Ortega, A. E. Reinhart, and T. M. Smith

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

13A.2

An Hourly Climatology of MRMS MESH-Diagnosed Severe Hail

Nathan A. Wendt, NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (3.0 MB)

2:30 PM

13A.3

Modelling Hail Impact: How Many Hail Stones of What Size?

Juergen Grieser, Risk Management Solutions Ltd., London, U.K.

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

13A.4

Supercell Sensitivities to Graupel and Hail Fall Speeds

Edward R. Mansell, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. T. Dawson II

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

13A.5

Environmental and Radar Characteristics of Gargantuan Hail-Producing Storms

Rachel Gutierrez, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and M. R. Kumjian

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

13A.6

The Influence of Environmental Variables on Hailstone Material Properties

Richard A Sirico III, Univ. of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and I. M. Giammanco, M. R. Kumjian, and T. M. Brown-Giammanco

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (922.6 kB)

Session 13B

Tornadoes 2

Location: Pinnacle AB (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Brice Evan Coffer, University of Oklahoma

2:00 PM

13B.1

What Is the Role of the Gust Front in Tornadogenesis?

Adam L. Houston, Univ. of Nebraska−Lincoln, Lincoln, NE; and C. C. Weiss, B. Argrow, and E. W. Frew

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

13B.2

Exploring the Utility of New Diagnostics for Low-Level Rotation in High-Resolution Rapid Refresh version 3 (HRRRv3) Forecasts

Logan C. Dawson, I.M. Systems Group, Inc. and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and G. S. Manikin, B. T. Blake, C. R. Alexander, I. L. Jirak, and M. E. Pyle

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

13B.3

Polarimetric and Kinematic Analysis of Simultaneous Tornado Debris Signatures during the 10 May 2010 Tornado Outbreak

Casey B. Griffin, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. J. Bodine and R. D. Palmer

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

13B.4

Reevaluating Performance in the Statistical Metrics for National Weather Service Tornado Warnings

Gregory M. Schoor, NWS/AFSO/FSD, Norman, OK; and J. G. Gibbs and J. P. Camp

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (559.2 kB)

3:00 PM

13B.5

Diagnosing Tornado Probability—Is Estimated Wind Speed Data More Useful than EF-Scale Rating Data?

Bryan T. Smith, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and R. L. Thompson, D. Spegeher, A. R. Dean, and C. D. Karstens

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

13B.6

Fine-scale Assessment of Mobile Home Tornado Vulnerability in the Central and Southeast U.S.

Stephen M. Strader, Villanova Univ., Villanova, PA; and W. S. Ashley

Recorded Presentation

Poster Session 3A

Advancements in Severe Storm Detection, Modeling, and Prediction

Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

132

Diurnal Variations in Forecasting Skill of UH-Derived Surrogate Severe Reports

133

Automatic Detection of Funnel Clouds from Pictures By Surveillance Cameras with Deep Learning.

Koji Sassa, Kochi Univ., Kochi, Japan; and R. Honda and Y. Fujii

134

Development of a Machine Learning-Based Tornado Detection Algorithm for the WSR-88D Network

Matthew C. Mahalik, CIMMS, Norman, OK; and K. L. Elmore and B. R. Smith

135

"Perspectives on the Current Understanding and Challenges for Improved Prediction of Supercell Tornado Development"

136

A Look at Some New HRRR Model Variables For Diagnosing Lower Level Storm Rotation and Their Relation to Tornado Potential

Edward J. Szoke, CIRA/Colorado State Univ. and NOAA/Global Systems Division, Boulder, CO; and C. R. Alexander, J. M. Brown, and E. P. James

137

Impact of Increased Resolution on Ensemble Forecasts of Thunderstorm Objects in the US Southeast

John R. Lawson, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and C. K. Potvin

138

Deep Learning for Real-Time Storm-Based Tornado Prediction

Ryan A. Lagerquist, CIMMS, Norman, OK; and C. R. Homeyer, A. McGovern, C. K. Potvin, T. Sandmael, and T. M. Smith

139

Factors Contributing to Bias and Variability of Convective and Stratiform Properties with Various Cloud Microphysics Schemes for a Squall Line MCS Case

Jiwen Fan, PNNL, Richland, WA; and B. Han, A. C. Varble, and H. Morrison

140

Dynamical and Thermodynamic Process of Thunderstorms Triggered and Merged by Sea-Breeze Convergence Lines Based on VDRAS Data

Xiaoyuan Yi, Tianjin Meteorological Observatory, Tianjin, China

141

Strengths and Limitations of NSSL's Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for Ensembles in Forecasting Cyclic Mesocyclogenesis

Kelsey C. Britt, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and P. S. Skinner, P. L. Heinselman, and K. H. Knopfmeier

Handout (3.6 MB)

142

Impacts of UAS Data on Thunderstorm Forecasts for the 28 June 2016 PRECIP Event

George Limpert, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and A. Houston

143

Predictions of Tornado-like Vortex Embedded in the 8 May 2003 Oklahoma City Tornadic Supercell Initialized from the Sub-Kilometer Analysis Produced By the GSI Based EnVar Data Assimilation System: Methodology and Sensitivity to Horizontal and Vertical Grid Spacing and Physical Parameterizations

Yongming Wang, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and X. Wang

144

Testing New Environmental Proxies for Supercell Tornadogenesis Using HRRR Analyses

Brice E. Coffer, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and M. D. Parker and H. P. Taylor

Handout (2.0 MB)

145

Comparison of Bulk Multi-Category Rimed-Ice Microphysics Parameterization using an Idealized Supercell Storm

Marcus R. Johnson, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and Y. Jung, H. Morrison, J. A. Milbrandt, and M. Xue

146

Supercell Predictability: Impacts of Intra-Storm vs. Environmental Initial Condition Spread on Ensemble Forecast Uncertainty

Montgomery L. Flora, Univ. of Oklahoma, CIMMS, NSSL/NOAA, Norman, OK; and C. K. Potvin

147

Impact of GOES-16 Observations on Prediction of High-Impact Convective Weather

Ryan A. Sobash, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Romine and J. Bresch

148

The WRF Lightning Forecast Algorithm: Sensitivities to Microphysics and Other Physics Schemes

Eugene W. McCaul Jr., USRA, Huntsville, AL; and G. Priftis, T. Chronis, J. L. Case, S. R. Dembek, F. Kong, S. J. Goodman, and S. J. Weiss

Handout (988.8 kB)

149

Roadmaps of Convective Storm Attributes as a Function of Environment: Part 1: Updraft Overturning and Rotation Efficiency and Steadiness

Eugene W. McCaul Jr., USRA, Huntsville, AL; and J. C. Kirkpatrick

Handout (5.2 MB)

150

Analysis of Nocturnal Convection Initiation Using Convective-Scale Data Assimilation of Observations Collected during PECAN

James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and G. Romine, J. Wurman, T. M. Weckwerth, and J. Wilson

Poster Session 3B

Severe Storm and Tornado Structure and Dynamics

Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

151

Characteristics of QLCS Downdrafts and Environments Observed during the VORTEX-Southeast Project

James Marquis, Univ. of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO; and K. Kosiba, J. Wurman, and P. Robinson

152

Near-Surface Vertical Wind Shear Observed during VORTEX-Southeast IOPs within and Near Convective Storms: Departures from Log-Law Behavior and Implications for Lower Boundary Conditions in Convective Storm Simulations

Nathan Lis, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and P. Markowski and D. D. Turner

153

VORTEX-SE: Improving Radar Wind Retrievals in Potentially Tornadic Storms in the Southeast United States

Karen Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and J. Marquis, J. Wurman, and P. Robinson

154

Investigating the Vertical Structure of Updraft Helicity in Convection-Allowing Models

Jeffrey M. Milne, CIMMS, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak and H. E. Brooks

Manuscript (1006.5 kB)

155

Important Factors for Tornadogenesis as Revealed by High-Resolution Ensemble Forecasts of the Tsukuba F3 Tornado on 6 May 2012

Sho Yokota, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and H. Niino, H. Seko, M. Kunii, and H. Yamauchi

156

Confirming Bottom-up Tornadogenesis in the 31 May 2013 El Reno Tornado

Jana B. Houser, Ohio Univ., Athens, OH; and A. Seimon, K. J. Thiem, H. B. Bluestein, S. Talbot, J. C. Snyder, and J. Allen

Manuscript (640.7 kB)

Handout (1.8 MB)

157

Investigating Tornadogenesis from Quasi-Linear Convective Systems in the U.K.

Ty J. Buckingham, NERC, Manchester, U.K.; and D. M. Schultz

158

Sensitivity of Tornado Evolution to Changes in 0-500 m Wind Shear in High-Resolution Simulations

Michelle A Elmore, Saint Louis Univ., St Louis, MO; and C. A. Finley, L. Orf, B. D. Lee, and R. B. Wilhelmson

159

Simulated ZDR Arcs and Tornadogenesis: A Preliminary Study

Allison T. LaFleur, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and R. Tanamachi, D. T. Dawson II, and B. E. Coffer

160

Cold Pool Horizontal Streamwise Vorticity During Tornadogenesis and Maintenance in a Simulated Supercell Thunderstorm

Kelton T. Halbert, Univ. of Wisconsin–Madison/CIMSS, Madison, WI; and L. Orf and A. W. Dixon

161

Observed Relationship between Tornado EF Rating and Pre-Tornadic Mesocyclone Width

Michael Sessa, Valparaiso Univ., Valparaiso, IN; and R. J. Trapp and J. Einbinder

162

Observational Validation of Layer-Lifting Metrics of Convective Instability for Determining the Dissipation of Severe MCSs

Diego A. Alfaro, National Autonomous Univ. of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; and M. C. Coniglio

Handout (3.9 MB)

163

Structures and Evolutions of Meso-β-scale Vortices that Spawned Tornado-like Vortices.

Eigo Tochimoto, Univ. of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan; and S. Yokota, H. Niino, and W. Yanase

164

The Role of Boundary-Parallel Vertical Shear in Convection Initiation

Alexander J. Krull, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and A. L. Houston

165

Lower Atmosphere Process Studies at Elevation - a Remotely-piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE)

Adam L. Houston, Univ. of Nebraska−Lincoln, Lincoln, NE; and G. de Boer, J. Jacob, C. Diehl, P. B. Chilson, B. Argrow, J. Elston, J. Intrieri, D. A. Lawrence, J. K. Lundquist, J. O. Pinto, and S. Smith

166

Tornadogenesis Failure in the Prospect Valley, CO, Supercell of 26 May 2010 Intercepted By VORTEX2

Shawn Murdzek, The Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and P. Markowski, Y. Richardson, and R. Tanamachi

167

What Gives Supercells a Leg-up over Ordinary Convection in Resisting Entrainment?

John M. Peters, NPS, Pacific Grove, CA; and H. Morrison

168

The Influence of Lifting Condensation Level on Low-Level Outflow and Rotation in Simulated Supercell Thunderstorms

Matthew Brown, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and C. J. Nowotarski

Handout (1.5 MB)

169

Vortex Developments and Interactions in Idealized Supercell Simulations Investigated By the Kinematic Vorticity Number Wk

Lisa Schielicke, Freie Universitaet Berlin, Berlin, Germany; Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and J. Dahl

170

Effects of Precipitation "Bursts" on Supercell Dynamics in Idealized Simulations

Scott Loeffler, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and M. R. Kumjian and P. Markowski

171

Defining a Galilean Invariant Curvature Vorticity and Its Application to the Dynamics of Vortex-Genesis in a Supercell

Luke E. Odell, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli, A. M. Fenrich, S. T. Trevorrow, and M. L. Buker

Poster Session 3C

Severe Storm Case Studies

Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

172

A Case Study of Kinematical, Microphysical, and Lightning Characteristics of a Tornadic Supercell

Milind Sharma, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and R. Tanamachi, E. C. Bruning, K. M. Calhoun, H. B. Bluestein, J. B. Houser, J. C. Snyder, and Z. B. Wienhoff

Manuscript (975.2 kB)

Handout (2.3 MB)

173

The 1 July 2017 Maine Tornadoes: A Brief Mesoscale Analysis and Dual Polarization Perspective

Michael L Ekster, NWS, Gray, ME

174

When Supercells Move Right, but Tornadoes Move Left: Observations from Two Episodes of Tornadogenesis after the Occlusion of their Parent Mesocyclone during the Alabama-Georgia Tornado Event of 19 March 2017

175

Comparison of Tornadic and Nontornadic Convective Cells in Hurricane Harvey

Christopher J. Nowotarski, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and R. Cheatham, S. Overpeck, and R. Edwards

176

Tornadogenesis in a Supercell Near the Northwest Texas-Southwestern Oklahoma Border on 16 May 2015: A Comparison of the Evolution of Vortex Shear Signatures From Two Nearby, Mobile, Rapid-Scan, X-Band, Doppler Radars

Kaitlin Frost, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. B. Bluestein, J. McLintock, Z. B. Wienhoff, K. J. Thiem, and D. W. Reif

177

The Unusual Evolution of the Entire Life of a Tornadic Supercell in South-Central Kansas and North-Central Oklahoma on 14 May 2018

Howard B. Bluestein, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and Z. B. Wienhoff and D. W. Reif

178

The 19 November 2015 Tornado in Southern Brazil: Dual-Pol Radar Data Analysis of the Parent Supercell and Videographic Documentation of the Complex Near-Surface Circulation

Vanessa Ferreira, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, Brazil; and E. L. Nascimento

179

Genesis and Structure of the 2013 El Reno, Oklahoma Tornado: Comparison of Cloud Model Simulations and Ground-Truth Observations

Anton Seimon, Appalachian State Univ., Boone, NC; and L. Orf, J. B. Houser, J. T. Allen, S. Talbot, J. C. Snyder, and H. B. Bluestein

180

The 'Cross-Border' Tornado Outbreak of 24 August 2016 - Analysis of the Two Tornadoes in Ontario

David Sills, Environment and Climate Change, Toronto, ON, Canada; and E. Hong, A. Jaffe, S. Stevenson, and G. A. Kopp

Manuscript (2.7 MB)

Handout (2.5 MB)

181

Analysis of a Long-Track Tornadic Supercell Occurring within a Stable Boundary Layer during the VORTEX-SE Field Campaign

182

Damage Assessment and Analysis of Storm Evolution Associated with a Significant Episode of Cold-Season Tornadic Activity in Southern Brazil.

Murilo Machado Lopes, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, Brazil; and V. Ferreira, C. Kannenberg, P. F. Feldhaus, R. N. Azevedo, M. I. D. Oliveira, T. Bremm, E. L. Nascimento, V. Anabor, M. F. L. Quadro, F. S. Puhales, and D. R. Roberti

183

High-Temporal Resolution Observations of Weak-Echo Reflectivity Bands and Momentum Surges in the 16 May 2017 Wheeler, Texas, Tornado

Casey B. Griffin, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. J. Bodine and J. Lujan Jr.

184

An Idealized Modeling Study of the Nontornadic and Tornadic Supercells Intercepted by VORTEX2 on 10 June 2010

Alicia Klees, The Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and Y. Richardson

186

A Multi-Scale Analysis of the 18 May 2017 Severe Weather Event across Eastern New York and Western New England

Thomas A. Wasula, NOAA/NWS, Albany, NY; and B. J. Frugis and M. S. Evans

Handout (4.5 MB)

187

Evolution of the Tornadic 13-14 April 2018 Quasi-Linear Convective System (QLCS) Observed During VORTEX-SE 2018

Michael I. Biggerstaff, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. A. Alford, G. D. Carrie, C. King, T. A. Murphy, N. R. Slaughter, C. L. Ziegler, and E. N. Rasmussen

188

Analyses of a Simulated Severe MCS and Tornadic Mesovortex Observed by PECAN on 5-6 July 2015

Matthew D. Flournoy, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. C. Coniglio

189

Environment and Evolution of the 3 April 2018 Tornadic QLCS across North Alabama during VORTEX-SE

Anthony W. Lyza, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and K. R. Knupp, M. I. Biggerstaff, and A. A. Alford

190

A Mesoscale Analysis of the Development of Storms and Transition to Supercells during the Indiana and Ohio Tornado Outbreak of 24 August 2016

Jeffrey W. Frame, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and K. T. Gray

Manuscript (9.1 MB)

Handout (2.5 MB)

191

An Overview of the 13-14 April 2018 North Louisiana Severe Weather Event during VORTEX-SE

192

An Overview of Spring 2018 VORTEX-SE Observations in North Louisiana

193

A “Back-building” Multi-Supercell Case in an Eastern China Coastal Metropolitan City

Jianhua Dai, Shanghai Central Meteorological Observatory, Xuhui, Shanghai, China; and M. Sun, Y. Chang, H. Chen, and J. Zhu

194

An Investigation of Mesoscale Processes and Convective Morphology on 27 April 2011

Manda B. Chasteen, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. E. Koch

195

Multiscale Processes Leading to the Development and Longevity of a Mesoscale Convective System

Manda B. Chasteen, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. E. Koch and D. B. Parsons

196

Preliminary Results from the 2018 National Robotics Initiative Field Project

Christopher C. Weiss, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and A. L. Houston, E. W. Frew, B. Argrow, A. L. Hutson, and A. Schueth

Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Stowe & Atrium rooms (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Registration

Location: Beatrice room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Session 14

New Tools for Prediction and Analysis

Location: Pinnacle room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Robin Tanamachi, NOAA/NSSL

9:00 AM

14.1

The Above Anvil Cirrus Plume: An Important Severe Weather Indicator in Visible and Infrared Satellite Imagery

K. M. Bedka, NASA, Hampton, VA; and E. M. Murillo, C. R. Homeyer, B. Scarino, and H. Mersiovsky

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

14.2

Towards Improving Forecasts of Severe Convection Along the Dryline through Targeted Observing with Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis

Aaron J. Hill, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and C. C. Weiss and B. C. Ancell

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

14.3

Using Ecosystem Dynamics to Evolve Skillful Forecasts of Convection

Paul J. Roebber, Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

14.4

Using Machine Learning to Improve 1-h Probabilistic Low-Level Rotation Forecasts.

Montgomery L. Flora, Univ. of Oklahoma, CIMMS, NSSL/NOAA, Norman, OK; and C. K. Potvin, P. S. Skinner, and A. McGovern

Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM

14.5

Testing of Scorecards for Convection Allowing Models during HWT 2018

Christina P. Kalb, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. Jensen, B. T. Gallo, A. J. Clark, B. Roberts, P. S. Skinner, and C. R. Alexander

Recorded Presentation

10:15 AM

14.6

An Australian Climatology of Severe Convective Wind Storms Using Bayesian Hierarchical Modelling

Alessio C Spassiani, Univ. of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia; and M. S. Mason, R. J. Krupar III, and V. Cheng

Coffee Break

Location: Pinnacle Lobby (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Session 15

Using Radar to Understand and Predict Severe Storms

Location: Pinnacle room (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )

Host: 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Patrick S. Skinner, CIMMS

11:00 AM

15.1

High-Resolution Observations of the Pre-Storm Boundary Layer and Internal Structure of a Prefrontal Tornadic Cool Season QLCS Using Multiple Atmospheric Profiling Systems and Dual Doppler Radar

Kevin R. Knupp, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and B. Goudeau and A. W. Lyza

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

15.2

Improving Vertical Velocity Retrievals from Doppler Radar Observations of Supercells

Nathan Dahl, School of Meteorology, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. M. Shapiro, C. K. Potvin, A. K. Theisen, J. G. Gebauer, A. D. Schenkman, and M. Xue

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

15.3A

Tornado Visualization and Doppler Radar Analysis Project

Thomas Dolan, Independent Geographer, Rocklin, CA

Manuscript (1.4 MB)

Handout (4.2 MB) Handout (11.8 MB)

15.3

Spatiotemporal Variability of Z_DR Column Altitudinal and Areal Extent in Tornadic and Nontornadic Supercells

12:00 PM

15.4

Observations of Severe Storms By a Novel, Polarimetric, Phased Array Mobile Radar

Robin Tanamachi, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and A. T. LaFleur, M. Sharma, S. J. Frasier, W. Heberling, and C. Wolsieffer

Recorded Presentation

12:15 PM

15.5

Impacts of Targeted PAR Radial Velocity Observations on Idealized Supercell Low-Level Rotation Forecasts

Christopher A. Kerr, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and X. Wang

Recorded Presentation

12:30 PM

15.6

Optimal Temporal Frequency of the Next Generation Phased Array Radar Observations for Storm-Scale Data Assimilation

Derek R. Stratman, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and N. Yussouf, Y. Jung, T. A. Supinie, and B. J. Putnam

Recorded Presentation

12:45 PM

Concluding Remarks

Recorded Presentation

Conference Adjourns

29th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Sunday, 21 October 2018

5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 21 October 2018

Monday, 22 October 2018

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 22 October 2018

8:45 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 22 October 2018

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8:30 AM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 23 October 2018

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8:30 AM-3:30 PM: Wednesday, 24 October 2018

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8:30 AM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 25 October 2018

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8:30 AM-12:00 PM: Friday, 26 October 2018

9:00 AM-10:30 AM: Friday, 26 October 2018

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Friday, 26 October 2018

11:00 AM-12:45 PM: Friday, 26 October 2018

12:45 PM-1:00 PM: Friday, 26 October 2018

Sunday, 21 October 2018

5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 21 October 2018

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8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 22 October 2018

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Wednesday, 24 October 2018

8:30 AM-3:30 PM: Wednesday, 24 October 2018

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