"Volatility of Tornadogenesis" in VORTEX2 Far-field Environments

The sensitivity of tornadogenesis to (a) the background synoptic environment, (b) the storm-influenced mesoscale environment, and (c) chaotic intra-storm processes remains an active area of research. In a recent set of ensemble simulations using the near-field tornadic and non-tornadic composite soundings from the second Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment (VORTEX2), Coffer et al. (2017) found that all storms initialized in the near-field tornadic environment produced a tornado, while 40% of the storms initialized in the non-tornadic environment produced a tornado. In this study, a similar ensemble of supercell simulations was created using the far-field tornadic composite sounding from VORTEX2. The ensemble shows large variability in terms of tornado production, with some members not producing a tornado, some producing a single tornado, and others producing cycling tornadoes. Dynamic features are assessed to diagnose reasons for tornadogenesis success and failure and if these modes may be related to (a) the background environment, (b) the storm-influenced mesoscale environment, or (c) chaotic intra-storm processes.